Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[RR1997]

More Virginia exits, here’s the Rubio/Trump margin by demo:

men: Trump +10%
women: Rubio +5%
white: Trump +5%
non-white: Rubio +3%
non-college graduate: Trump +19%
college graduate: Rubio +10%
under $100k income: Trump +13%
over $100k income: Rubio +12%
conservative: Trump +7%
moderate: Rubio +13%
Evangelical: Trump +8%
non-Evangelical: Rubio +7%
urban area: Rubio +4%
suburban area: Rubio +3%
rural area: Trump +20%

39% would be dissatisfied if Rubio wins the nomination
53% would be dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination
56% would be dissatisfied if Cruz wins the nomination

Who ran the most unfair campaign?
Trump 42%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 11%

That's odd. Rubio is beating Trump amongst moderates. In most states, Trump has been dominating with moderates. Trump is also beating Rubio with conservatives. Trump typically does worse with conservatives than moderates. I think this because that the moderates in VA are different from the moderates in other states. NoVa moderates hate Trump.

The huge income, education, and gender gaps aren't surprising.

[Mr. Morden]

Like in Virginia, the exit poll of Georgia has Trump doing especially well in rural areas.

Georgia suburbs:
Trump 35%
Rubio 26%
Cruz 23%

Georgia rural areas:
Trump 51%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 16%

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

DDHQ has Kasich winning Fairfax and Carson winning a county.

Where are they getting their returns?  Those are completely different from CNN's numbers.

No idea. I stopped checking them after Iowa, when their early numbers bore no resemblance to anyone else's and kept jumping around oddly.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Virginia and Vermont you iz taking too long.

[Skye]

lol Rubio's not winning GA, Oldies.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

lol Rubio's not winning GA, Oldies.

I didn't say he would.  For all I know, the Georgia call may be right.  But I think it's extremely premature to make a call simply based on exit polls, especially when they have differed significantly from actual outcomes in the past.

[Asian Nazi]

DDHQ is trash

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

JerryArkansas posted this in the Democratic thread; the VA Board of Elections already has 14% of precincts in. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016%20March%20Republican%20Presidential%20Primary/Site/Presidential.html

[standwrand]

Maybe Drumpf will take all the delegates in GA

[The Other Castro]

http://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/

This has some VT results coming in.

[Nathan Towne]

lol Rubio's not winning GA, Oldies.

I didn't say he would.  For all I know, the Georgia call may be right.  But I think it's extremely premature to make a call simply based on exit polls, especially when they have differed significantly from actual outcomes in the past.

We are now getting results in from Georgia though and Trump has clearly won the state. He is leading in every county, often by large margins and is running at 50% of the vote.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

lol Rubio's not winning GA, Oldies.

I didn't say he would.  For all I know, the Georgia call may be right.  But I think it's extremely premature to make a call simply based on exit polls, especially when they have differed significantly from actual outcomes in the past.

We are now getting results in from Georgia though and Trump has clearly won the state. He is leading in every county, often by large margins and is running at 50% of the vote.

Dude, 1% of the precincts in is not "clear" by any means.  I suspect Trump will take the state, but I still think it's too early to call it.

[Mr. Morden]

That's odd. Rubio is beating Trump amongst moderates. In most states, Trump has been dominating with moderates. Trump is also beating Rubio with conservatives. Trump typically does worse with conservatives than moderates. I think this because that the moderates in VA are different from the moderates in other states. NoVa moderates hate Trump.

In Georgia, by contrast, Trump still has a bigger gap over Rubio among conservatives than moderates, but a smaller # overall.  That's because of the strength of Cruz:

conservatives:
Trump 39%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 21%

moderates:
Trump 42%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 12%

So I think the pattern is that in states where Cruz does well, Trump's voters are more moderate, because Cruz sucks up many of the conservative voters.  But in states where Cruz does poorly, Trump leans more heavily on conservatives.

[Vosem]

Maybe Drumpf will take all the delegates in GA

He would need to eclipse 50% statewide and in every congressional district. He has an outside shot at all 34 statewide delegates, but he's not getting all of them in the state considering what's reporting right now is very favorable rural territory and he's barely getting that statewide 50.

[RI]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

[Bigby]

If the Confederacy was its own nation still, Trump would be its President in a landslide.

[Skye]

NYT already reporting Trump carried Georgia.

[ag]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

Where do you get that data?

[Nathan Towne]

lol Rubio's not winning GA, Oldies.

I didn't say he would.  For all I know, the Georgia call may be right.  But I think it's extremely premature to make a call simply based on exit polls, especially when they have differed significantly from actual outcomes in the past.

We are now getting results in from Georgia though and Trump has clearly won the state. He is leading in every county, often by large margins and is running at 50% of the vote.

Dude, 1% of the precincts in is not "clear" by any means.  I suspect Trump will take the state, but I still think it's too early to call it.

Trump is leading in every county that has reported thus far from across the entire state and is leading by 30 percentage points. The results are very consistent across the state as well. Trump has all but sealed Georgia.

[emailking]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

Where do you get that data?

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016%20March%20Republican%20Presidential%20Primary/Site/Presidential.html

[PaperKooper]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

do you mean 23 precincts?

[RI]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

do you mean 23 precincts?

No

[IceSpear]

Guys, stop responding to Oldies. He says the same crap even if it's obvious someone's going to win by 50+ points.

[libertpaulian]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

do you mean 23 precincts?

23% of the precincts

[Volrath50]

23% in VA: Trump up 37-30

Where do you get that data?

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016%20March%20Republican%20Presidential%20Primary/Site/Presidential.html

JIM GILMORE WITH 449 VOTES AND 0.2%! HE SHOULD GET BACK IN THE RACE! HE IS THE ANTI-TRUMP!