Could this be the Libertarians' moment?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

OK, so assuming the GOP elite flameout in their attempt to either rig the nomination or form an independent bid. Could this be the moment for Gary Johnson to finally achieve. say, the mid-single-digits? I mean, he's not ideal, but certainly better than most normal third party nominees (a popular executive, from New Mexico and isn't a crook). He could actually make a dual pitch to expand his base (doctinaire libertarians will whine, but who gives a crap)

- Sanders supporters that are angry they've been denied the chance to have an anti-establishment figure in office. The Sanders coalition id ideologically heterodox and can be peeled away by a targeted campaign and emphasising to a lesser degree, err, certain aspects of the libertarian agenda.

- A Bayrou-esque appeal towards the moderate centre alarmed by TRUMPISM and wanting a fairly experienced hand.

[Vosem]

To do better than they ever have before? Sure. To get my vote? Quite possibly. To be relevant? Unfortunately not.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

imo Johnson could do well but probably wouldn't break 3%. But that 3% could decide close states either way (and if turnout is similar to 2012, that's 4 million votes right there)

[This account no longer in use.]

Yes; absolutely.

[pho]

They could maybe reach Nader 00 levels, but Anderson 80 is too optimistic.

[Asian Nazi]

No, if anything the Libertarian vote will shrink as their people flock to real libertarian Donald TRUMP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I mean the problem with thirs parties is they are full of loons, but I can easily manage a somewhat credible Libertarian platform drawing from parties like the Free Democratic Party, the Lib Dems and the Icelandic Pirate Party. You would have to ouster the Ancaps, the racists, the paleos etc. though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes. Donald Trump will lead the libertarian resurgence Rand and Ron failed to do.

Are you deluded? Trump is the farthest thing from a libertarian, closer to fascism than any candidate since George Wallace in 1968.

To answer the thread, I think some disaffected. Americans will vote libertarian, possibly more than last time, but most just won't vote.

[Asian Nazi]

I mean the problem with thirs parties is they are full of loons, but I can easily manage a somewhat credible Libertarian platform drawing from parties like the Free Democratic Party, the Lib Dems and the Icelandic Pirate Party. You would have to ouster the Ancaps, the racists, the paleos etc. though.

All of the American third parties are full of loons, but this is by design as they act more as activist social clubs than serious electoral vehicles.  Look at what happened with the Florida Libertarian Party over Augustus Sol Invictus, a pagan fascist who managed to coopt the statewide party with little effort.  The Green Party is basically the same, except with truthers and trots instead of neo-confederates and objectivists.  Any attempt to reform these parties will be resisted viciously, as their supporters don't really care about winning or expect to win.

[Hnv1]

imo Johnson could do well but probably wouldn't break 3%. But that 3% could decide close states either way (and if turnout is similar to 2012, that's 4 million votes right there)

What state could a libt. vote swing? He'll probably get decent figures in Montana (which will be R I predict anyway) and the rest of the fly over, and the only state that his (stronger) presence will matter will be NH

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

imo Johnson could do well but probably wouldn't break 3%. But that 3% could decide close states either way (and if turnout is similar to 2012, that's 4 million votes right there)

What state could a libt. vote swing? He'll probably get decent figures in Montana (which will be R I predict anyway) and the rest of the fly over, and the only state that his (stronger) presence will matter will be NH

The West is generally fertile territory for Libertarians. Johnson got 3.6% of the vote in New Mexico in 2012 (his home state), and could definitely add a new dimension to Nevada and Colorado if he's getting 3% of the national vote.

If 2016 comes down to the wire, a strong Libertarian performance could act as a serious spoiler for either Hillary or Trump. Romney beat Obama in North Carolina by 92,000 votes, while Johnson took 45,000 votes (i.e. about half the margin needed to flip the state).


Of course, I doubt the Libertarians will significantly improve on their 1%; in fact they might actually fall. But if it's a close election, there is always the possibility they could unintentionally act as a spoiler in one or more states.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If Trump and Clinton are the nominees and the establishment Republicans don't run anyone as a third party, I could see Johnson getting about 5%.