Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)  (Read 43525 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: March 01, 2016, 05:42:47 PM »

Latino vote in VT was literally 0%
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2016, 06:26:41 PM »

would it be racist of me to say that maybe the AA numbers will go up because they vote later?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2016, 06:38:40 PM »

According to Maddow, the Clinton campaign is saying they don't expect to win MA and that Sanders is setting the expectation they will win all 5 of their targets (VT, CO, MN, OK and MA).   

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2016, 06:42:25 PM »

How important are the super delegate for the democratic nomination?

Short answer: pretty important

15% of all delegates are 'super delegates' so for a candidate to win a majority of delegates without them they need to overperform with the 85% of pledged delegates. However, because pledged delegates are awarded proportionately, it becomes hard in a close race to get to 50%+1 without the supers. For example, in 2008 Obama won a slim majority of pledged delegates but still needed some super delegates to get over the top. 
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2016, 06:44:10 PM »


This pattern of more liberal has been seen in all four states so far
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2016, 06:49:51 PM »

Usually young means under 30, but for the Fox Business demographic, under 65 is a spring chicken.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2016, 07:38:29 PM »

Sanders may be trying to get in a speech before the caucuses start in MN and CO. He looks like a winner so maybe they will believe in the Bern
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2016, 08:06:49 PM »

Sanders could win all of his targets which is better than I thought he would do. I expected him to win maybe 4 of 11 states but he cancome out with 5 of 11.   One key thing to keep watch is on the delegate side. He comes into the night with 42% from the first four states, can he close that gap? 

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2016, 08:37:59 PM »

So is Clinton going to talk before or after Trump?. His press conference is at the top of the hour and so she has only 20 minutes if she wants to go now.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2016, 08:54:12 PM »

Hillary hits the stage just 7 minutes before the top of the hour. Is this going to be short and sweet?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2016, 09:01:16 PM »

Hillary is giving a speech aimed at white Dems voters in MI and OH. She is not pivoting (yet)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2016, 09:03:28 PM »

Trump's press conference is scheduled to start now. I guess he isn't going to start until she stops.  If he started, would the nets cut away?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2016, 09:15:46 PM »

the nyt page has Bernie winning OK.  This is a big deal because it shows he can win a primary outside of New England. Ironically it may get muted if he loses a primary in New England (notably MA)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2016, 09:28:09 PM »


Cohen says Sanders win in OK is 'hard to explain' but perhaps it is that he outspent Clinton by over 2 to 1 and has campaigned in the state. This may prove Chuck Todd's critique that Sanders missed a beat by not targeting additional states like possibly TN and/or VA
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2016, 09:34:32 PM »

After all that debating over Clinton and Latino vote, TX (with a very large Latino population) shows she is winning Latinos big. 65/34. Interesting contrast, the size of the black vote is about the same in both TX and OK, the difference is the Latino vote.  This bodes well for her coming up in FL, AZ and most importantly, CA.

 
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