Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote
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  Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote
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Author Topic: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote  (Read 5125 times)
Frodo
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« on: March 02, 2016, 12:12:41 AM »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  
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Matty
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2016, 12:14:05 AM »

trump will win white vote by 3 points or 4.
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Shadows
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2016, 01:36:10 AM »

Yep, he will 63-64% odd  atleast & get a huge win among whites. Romney won 59% odd, Trump will do significantly better & will cause a higher turnout among whites
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2016, 01:40:07 AM »

Yep, he will 63-64% odd  atleast & get a huge win among whites. Romney won 59% odd, Trump will do significantly better & will cause a higher turnout among whites

This makes zero sense.

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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2016, 01:42:21 AM »
« Edited: March 02, 2016, 01:52:53 AM by Virginia »

Yep, he will 63-64% odd  atleast & get a huge win among whites. Romney won 59% odd, Trump will do significantly better & will cause a higher turnout among whites

I love how everyone is so sure Trump, a man of so, so, sooo many embarrassing, shameful and downright offensive attributes is going to win Reagan-level numbers of whites. You're letting the 24/7 media coverage of his offensive bs fool you into thinking that much of white America actually wants him as president.

Get off the pipe already and wake up. It's one thing to think he may win, but quite another to think he can pull off something like that.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2016, 01:46:47 AM »

Yep, he will 63-64% odd  atleast & get a huge win among whites. Romney won 59% odd, Trump will do significantly better & will cause a higher turnout among whites

I love how everyone is so sure Trump, a man of so, so, sooo many embarrassing, shameful and downright offensive attributes is going to win Reagan-level numbers of whites.

Get off the pipe already and wake up. It's one thing to think he may win but quite another thing to think to pull off something like that.

Yeah, he is going to be hard press to even match Romney's numbers. I mean Hillary has a good chance to at least match Obama's 2008 performance
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2016, 08:19:59 AM »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2016, 08:30:32 AM »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

That question has been answered, the answer is no. There is literally nothing to back up this notion beyond Trump himself claiming it. It's ridiculous.

Trump's path to victory has to be in driving up turnout among disenfranchised white voters and possibly swinging over some angry blue-collar whites. This has to happen in sufficient numbers that it offsets losing some sensible centrists (as I think he will). Secondly, it needs to overcome the likely hit he takes with Hispanic vote share and turnout.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2016, 08:34:36 AM »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

That question has been answered, the answer is no. There is literally nothing to back up this notion beyond Trump himself claiming it. It's ridiculous.

Trump's path to victory has to be in driving up turnout among disenfranchised white voters and possibly swinging over some angry blue-collar whites. This has to happen in sufficient numbers that it offsets losing some sensible centrists (as I think he will). Secondly, it needs to overcome the likely hit he takes with Hispanic vote share and turnout.
I'm not a big fan of Clinton but I think Gustaf is right. I think Trump's share of the non-Hispanic white vote will be similar to Romney's, maybe 60%. I think his share of the Black vote will be around 5-6%, similar to Romney's.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2016, 11:10:25 AM »

No, because Trump will push away a significant number of actual conservatives.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2016, 10:07:44 PM »

Bump -now that it is clear Trump is the nominee...
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2016, 10:19:38 PM »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

With Obama campaigning for Hillary and against Trump? Not a chance.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2016, 10:23:13 PM »

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2016, 10:28:27 PM »

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.

Whites in the south will drag her below 50% nationally no matter what happens. Remember, Obama won white women in the electoral college but still lost them 53-46% nationally according to CNN exit polls.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2016, 01:13:04 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2016, 01:20:53 AM by Ogre Mage »

I think Trump will get around 56-57% of the white vote -- worse than Romney.  Any gains with blue collar whites will be at least partially offset by the fact that college educated voters of all races can't stand Trump, plus I think Clinton will do better with white women than the typical Democratic nominee.

As for nonwhite voters, LOL at Trump.  Polls suggest his ratings with these groups are at abysmal levels worse than even the typical GOP nominee.  It would not surprise me to see him have the worst performance with nonwhite voters in the modern history of presidential politics.
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2016, 01:53:20 AM »

Hillary will win whites and the election by +12.
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Sbane
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2016, 02:01:08 AM »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012? 

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

No, black people are not going to support a candidate that openly race baits against Hispanics and Muslims. Even if they are not the target of the race baiting, they are not going to condone it. I don't see how anyone can see otherwise.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2016, 02:08:10 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2016, 02:12:01 AM by Virginia »

I think Trump will get around 56-57% of the white vote -- worse than Romney.  Any gains with blue collar whites will be at least partially offset by the fact that college educated voters of all races can't stand Trump, plus I think Clinton will do better with white women than the typical Democratic nominee.

As for nonwhite voters, LOL at Trump.  Polls suggest his ratings with these groups are at abysmal levels worse than even the typical GOP nominee.  It would not surprise me to see him have the worst performance with nonwhite voters in the modern history of presidential politics.

I would say that is more or less my ceiling for him. He isn't going to get more than, nor equal to Romney numbers. Unless this race drastically changes and Trump improves big across the board, he doesn't have a chance at getting 59%. Based on the way things current look, I wouldn't be surprised if his final numbers were several points lower than McCain's.

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

No, black people are not going to support a candidate that openly race baits against Hispanics and Muslims. Even if they are not the target of the race baiting, they are not going to condone it. I don't see how anyone can see otherwise.

Pretty much. A more likable generic, non-offensive Republican can't even expect much more than 8% - 10% at this point, which is generous in the post-Obama era if you ask me. So I am a bit perplexed when people suggest a bigoted fool like Trump can do better. A man who was hesitant to disavow a former KKK leader, who spends his time constantly retweeting white supremacists, and one who condones/encourages his supporters to beat up protestors, who happened to be minorities/black in a number of high-profile incidents. Let's not even get into Trump's shameful treatment of the nation's first black president, either.

Trump will likely do as bad as Romney, if not worse, with African Americans.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2016, 02:20:43 AM »

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.

Hillary will win whites and the election by +12.

Uh...guys. If Hillary wins the white vote or comes close, the election is close to 60-40. Especially since if whites swing 20 points, Hispanics are certainly swinging her way as well.

My guess is that whites and blacks stay pretty much the same as 2012, with Hispanics swinging toward Hillary enough to make it 52-46.
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RFayette
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2016, 02:26:31 AM »

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.

Hillary will win whites and the election by +12.

Uh...guys. If Hillary wins the white vote or comes close, the election is close to 60-40. Especially since if whites swing 20 points, Hispanics are certainly swinging her way as well.

My guess is that whites and blacks stay pretty much the same as 2012, with Hispanics swinging toward Hillary enough to make it 52-46.

This is consistent with the RCP average, so I tend to agree.  Honestly, the GOP could do much worse than this given how tumultuous this campaign has been.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2016, 02:27:13 AM »

Just to reiterate what I said earlier here, I dragged up the numbers and posted them in one of the other threads where it was discussed. Polling suggests Trump is wildly unpopular with black voters, even more so than a typical Republican candidate. Clinton, on the other hand, as we have seen is quite popular with black voters and is running as Obama 2.0 with his support. She might not get quite the percentage+turnout a black candidate like Obama got but there is nothing to suggest she'd do worse than Kerry 2004 or so.

Thinking Clinton will win the white vote though sounds optimistic. I'd like to think the American electorate is sensible enough that Trump would lose in a landslide, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2016, 02:44:02 AM »

Just to reiterate what I said earlier here, I dragged up the numbers and posted them in one of the other threads where it was discussed. Polling suggests Trump is wildly unpopular with black voters, even more so than a typical Republican candidate. Clinton, on the other hand, as we have seen is quite popular with black voters and is running as Obama 2.0 with his support. She might not get quite the percentage+turnout a black candidate like Obama got but there is nothing to suggest she'd do worse than Kerry 2004 or so.

Thinking Clinton will win the white vote though sounds optimistic. I'd like to think the American electorate is sensible enough that Trump would lose in a landslide, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

If you bet on us being sensible, you're going to be disappointed. Tongue Don't forget that 46% of us voted for Sarah Palin to be a heartbeat away from the presidency at the same time the incumbent Republican president with a 25% approval rating destroyed the economy and presided over a botched and universally unpopular war.
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2016, 03:50:54 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2016, 07:50:28 AM by White Light »

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012? 

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

So the big question is whether a guy who hangs out with white supremacists, is endorsed by the KKK and didn't condemn David Duke's endorsement can get 25% of blacks?

In that case congratulations President Hillary Clinton.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2016, 04:01:49 AM »

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.

Whites in the south will drag her below 50% nationally no matter what happens. Remember, Obama won white women in the electoral college but still lost them 53-46% nationally according to CNN exit polls.

But at this time, let's not forget that with white women, trump is losing horribly.
Republicans can usually rely on at least white women, to vote R (more than D).
But look at this enormous, and I mean ENORMOUS, hole trump is in at this time.
This is staggering, and I cant see how he can dig himself out of this type of deficit within 6 months.

(Taken from another thread ....)
Yep...this is what unelectability looks like....


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Iosif
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2016, 05:23:59 AM »

Can someone describe a white Obama-Trump voter? I can't.
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