Who wins on March 5th (GOP)?
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Poll
Question: Who'll win in the following states?
#1
Kansas - Trump		  
#2
Kansas - Cruz		  
#3
Kansas - Rubio		  
#4
Kentucky - Trump		  
#5
Kentucky - Cruz		  
#6
Kentucky - Rubio		  
#7
Louisiana - Trump		  
#8
Louisiana - Cruz		  
#9
Louisiana - Rubio		  
#10
Maine - Trump		  
#11
Maine - Cruz		  
#12
Maine - Rubio		  
#13
Maine - Kasich		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Who wins on March 5th (GOP)?  (Read 3654 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: March 02, 2016, 06:09:28 AM »
Louisiana is a primary state, while Kansas, Kentucky and Maine are caucus states.
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2016, 06:12:47 AM »
I went with Trump in all four, but I could see Cruz winning Louisiana or Kansas. Kasich could do well in Maine, but it's hard to see him winning it after losing Vermont (which he has spent a lot of time in).
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2016, 06:16:57 AM »
CRUZ: Kansas
TRUMP: Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
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Donnie
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2016, 06:18:30 AM »
Quote from: Sasquatch on March 02, 2016, 06:16:57 AM
CRUZ: Kansas
TRUMP: Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2016, 06:19:17 AM »
Quote from: Figueira on March 02, 2016, 06:12:47 AM
I went with Trump in all four, but I could see Cruz winning Louisiana or Kansas. Kasich could do well in Maine, but it's hard to see him winning it after losing Vermont (which he has spent a lot of time in).

Trump probably wins Louisiana.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2016, 06:30:26 AM »
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morgieb
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2016, 07:07:57 AM »
I think Cruz wins Kansas given it's a caucus and his results in Oklahoma and Texas. Kentucky should be won by Trump but it being a caucus makes it a bit less predictable, especially given it's closed (I suspect in the South a lot of potential Trump voters are probably still Democrats). Maine should be also be won by Trump, especially given Kasich couldn't win Vermont and Rubio has done SFA in New England so far.

I actually think Cruz wins Louisiana too. It's a closed primary where the Democrats still hold a serious partisan registration advantage and he's done pretty well in neighbouring states to Texas.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2016, 07:19:54 AM »
Maine should be one of Trump's best states, but Kasich might have an outside chance given what we've seen in Vermont and New Hampshire. Caucus organization could make things weird.

Louisiana is another fairly strong Trump state, but I wouldn't rule out a Cruz upset based on his performance in AR and OK last night. I'd wager on the neighboring state effect being much weaker in Louisiana, but Rubio might lose enough vote share to make this contest the first clear two-person race on the Republican side.

Kansas is a relatively weak state for Trump, and it's a caucus. But what might work in Trump's favor is that both Cruz and Rubio are likely to make a serious effort here, which would make it possible for Trump to win the state with a vote share <35%.

I'd say that's two likely Trumps plus a Rubio/Cruz toss-up that Trump still has a decent chance of winning.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2016, 10:19:40 AM »
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2016, 10:44:05 AM »
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2016, 10:46:11 AM »
CRUZ: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana,
TRUMP: Maine

I think Rubio's support collapses in the next few days and voters vote strategically for Cruz
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riceowl
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« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2016, 10:53:19 AM »
Ooh, alphabetical groupings!
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2016, 10:56:07 AM »
Ugh, I am going to be on a retreat this weekend so, I can't watch the results. Sad
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Ronnie
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2016, 12:15:41 PM »
My inclination is:

Cruz: Kansas
Trump: Maine, Louisiana
Tossup between Cruz/Trump: Kentucky
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2016, 12:24:07 PM »
Quote from: Sasquatch on March 02, 2016, 06:16:57 AM
CRUZ: Kansas
TRUMP: Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine

Kentucky will be a fight between Cruz and Trump, Louisiana seems like a Trump WALLOPING, and Maine could be a Trump wallop, but Kasich oughta fight his heart out over there.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2016, 12:30:31 PM »
Cruz: Kansas and Kentucky
Trump: Louisiana and Maine
Rubio: Puerto Rico
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defe07
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2016, 12:36:47 PM »
Krumpf wins all 4!! Cheesy
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2016, 12:41:52 PM »
Quote from: Classic Conservative on March 02, 2016, 10:56:07 AM
Ugh, I am going to be on a retreat this weekend so, I can't watch the results. Sad

Find a family member to text you results.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2016, 01:56:05 PM »
KS/LA - Cruz
ME/KY - Trump
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2016, 02:13:47 PM »
It should be noted that Kansas' crooked SoS, Kris Kobach, endorsed Trump. Don't be shocked if that plays a factor in the Sunflower state.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2016, 03:14:32 PM »
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2016, 03:17:47 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 02, 2016, 02:13:47 PM
It should be noted that Kansas' crooked SoS, Kris Kobach, endorsed Trump. Don't be shocked if that plays a factor in the Sunflower state.

On one hand he could rig elections, on the other hand people HATE Kris Kobach even in Kansas, so I think its a draw.
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Bigby
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« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2016, 03:51:54 PM »
Kansas is likely Cruz territory while Louisiana and Maine are likely Trump areas. Kentucky is lean Trump.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2016, 04:19:06 PM »
LA/KS - Lean Cruz
ME - Lean TRUMP
MS - Safe TRUMP
PR - Lean Rubio
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: March 02, 2016, 04:25:17 PM »
I don't know where people get the idea that Cruz will win Louisiana after losing Arkansas and Alabama.

Louisiana - Likely (Probably Safe) Trump
Kansas - Lean Cruz (Caucus)
Kentucky - Lean Trump (Closed Caucus gives me pause here. Yet looking at what Trump did in Western Virginia and Tennessee, there is no reason Trump shouldn't come close to those numbers here)
Puerto Rico - Probably Rubio, but it's impossible to tell.
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