CO-Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs (D): Clinton leads Trump by 10

[Tender Branson]

49% Clinton
39% Trump

http://onsightpublicaffairs.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/KR-ONSIGHT-3-2-2016-XTABS.pdf

[Boston Bread]

but but CO is safe R with $hillary!

Great poll!

[Devils30]

Hillary isnt a good fit for CO, but Trump is an awful fit in a very educated state. Few old factory towns for him to thrive in in CO.

[Tender Branson]

I guess Rubio would be ahead of her ...

It's good for Hillary that Trump has even more terrible favorable ratings in CO than her.

But is it good for the US ?

Nope.

[pbrower2a]

Hillary isnt a good fit for CO, but Trump is an awful fit in a very educated state. Few old factory towns for him to thrive in in CO.

I would love to have seen how Sanders does and how both do against Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio... but even if there is a D bias in the pollster, a 10% advantage is good enough to suggest that Colorado will be troublesome for Republicans.

[windjammer]

Looks like Trump will do worse in CO than in VA. His only path to victory is holding the Romney states and winning FL, OH and PA.

While winning OH is definitely possible. I dont see how he could win in PA with the PA suburbs going heavily against him.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Looks like Trump will do worse in CO than in VA. His only path to victory is holding the Romney states and winning FL, OH and PA.

While winning OH is definitely possible. I dont see how he could win in PA with the PA suburbs going heavily against him.

They aren't heavily against him, which is a finer point most don't seem to get. He's beloved here. This is not your ordinary suburb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton is holding CO, but 10 its extreme, shes probably ahead, its gonna be close. Good news for Bennett.

[pbrower2a]

Clinton is holding CO, but 10 its extreme, shes probably ahead, its gonna be close. Good news for Bennett.

I have good cause to doubt whether Colorado has gone for a Democratic nominee for President by 10% or more since 1964.

[Xing]

B-b-but I thought Hillary couldn't win Colorado!?

Primaries are not predicative of general elections, folks. Clinton's not going to lose CO by double digits, nor will she win AR.

[Free Bird]

Probably an outlier

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO will be a 3-4 pt Hilary win

[pbrower2a]

CO will be a 3-4 pt Hilary win

Reasonable enough. 49% is close to what either Clinton or Sanders could get in Colorado, even with an excellent GOTV campaign, barring a complete collapse of Donald Trump.

[Devils30]

Obama got 51%, her ceiling is not 49% vs Trump

[pbrower2a]

Obama got 51%, her ceiling is not 49% vs Trump

51% wins for anyone. But she is far closer to getting 51% than Trump is. If she is at 49-39 in September she has about a 90% chance of winning. She would not need as strong a GOTV drive as Trump will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of people forget that CO, is a working class, Latino state. It has voted with natl average in 2008& 2012. The Latino vote has come back hard against Trump,  which was expected. But, Clinton is also keeping it close in Va & Ohio. Which is a little bit surprising, because Appalachia is a GOP stronghold, but not in Presidential years.

[pbrower2a]

Alot of people forget that CO, is a working class, Latino state. It has voted with natl average in 2008& 2012. The Latino vote has come back hard against Trump,  which was expected. But, Clinton is also keeping it close in Va & Ohio. Which is a little bit surprising, because Appalachia is a GOP stronghold, but not in Presidential years.

Obama got absolutely crushed in the southwestern corner of Virginia, the Appalachian part of Virginia. He won because of the urban vote around DC and Richmond.

A recent poll suggests that John Kasich would do better than other Republicans, in fact beating Hillary Clinton... but Kasich does less to offend well-educated people. Appalachia has been trending R for a long time.

[Ljube]

Alot of people forget that CO, is a working class, Latino state. It has voted with natl average in 2008& 2012. The Latino vote has come back hard against Trump,  which was expected. But, Clinton is also keeping it close in Va & Ohio. Which is a little bit surprising, because Appalachia is a GOP stronghold, but not in Presidential years.

Obama got absolutely crushed in the southwestern corner of Virginia, the Appalachian part of Virginia. He won because of the urban vote around DC and Richmond.

TRUMP is a bad fit for both CO and VA. However, he is an excellent fit for PA and MI and a very good fit for OH.

[pbrower2a]

PPP has a poll for Ohio being taken this weekend. I have asked that a Clinton- Romney- Trump matchup be tried.

We shall see soon enough whether Ohio is friendly to Donald Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree Toomey is actually performing better than Rob Portman right now, but eventually, Pa will come Dems direction, and 99% sure Trump wont win MI. CLINTON doesnt need coattails like she does in OH or Va. Due to Philly

But Va & CO will stay with Clinton

[madelka]

BUT COLORADO IS SOLID R WITH THE NEOLIBERAL WARMONGER AS THE NOMINEE!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its not an R state, its a Latino heavily Latino state, and Trump struggles with them.

[Alcon]

Its not an R state, its a Latino heavily Latino state, and Trump struggles with them.

I don't know where you get this stuff.  Colorado is not "working-class" and while there are more Latinos than average, calling it a "Latino heavily Latino state" is bizarre; they were 14% of the voters in 2012 and it's hard to do drastically worse with that group than Romney managed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They elected back to back Latino Senators, the only state that did such in turncoat Dem to Liberal Pro choice GOPer Ben Nighthorse Campbell & Populist Ken Salazar

[5280]

Its not an R state, its a Latino heavily Latino state, and Trump struggles with them.

Arizona has more Latino's than Colorado, yet it's more GOP. Go figure, it must be the professional, elite, yuppies and hipsters that bring Colorado over the top for the Democrats every time.