2015 county predictions

[KingSweden]

2015 county estimates come out sometime this month. Any predictions?

[Kevinstat]

The closest (in population) possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts consisting of (contiguous) whole Maine counties will go from this as of and according to the 2014 estimates



to this


.

The closest possible plan using (not necessarily functional or by land) contiguous whole Maine counties in 2010 was


,

While in 2000 it was


.  (There were only 123 more people in the green district than the blue one as of and according to the 2000 census.)

This wouldn't be very close in population, but just imagine the 2000 closest plan with Somerset County moved over:


.

[DINGO Joe]

I predict it will be released to the public at 12:01AM on Thursday March 24th

[Gass3268]

Tomorrow is the big day!

[Gass3268]

Four Texas Metro Areas Collectively Add More Than 400,000 People in the Last Year, Census Bureau Reports

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[DINGO Joe]

It 10:37 EST and the data isn't loaded!!

[Gass3268]

Here it is

[KingSweden]

Spokane County added about 6500 people, meaning it has roughly grown 30-50% more each year this decade than the year prior. It's added nearly 20,000 people.

Outside of the booming Seattle area, the big surprise is how much Clark (Vancouver) continues to grow. Portland residents being priced out of the city, perhaps?

[traininthedistance]

Largest percentage gain in NY was... the Bronx!  Warms my heart.

NY State would have had a population loss were it not for the City.

[muon2]

Largest percentage gain in NY was... the Bronx!  Warms my heart.

NY State would have had a population loss were it not for the City.

That used to be true in IL, but apparently no longer. Cook lost 10K which is about half of the overall loss for the state. The Chicagoland area no longer makes up for losses in downstate IL. In fact the greater Chicagp metro extending into IN and WI lost 7K last year in the new estimates.

[jimrtex]

Spokane County added about 6500 people, meaning it has roughly grown 30-50% more each year this decade than the year prior. It's added nearly 20,000 people.

Outside of the booming Seattle area, the big surprise is how much Clark (Vancouver) continues to grow. Portland residents being priced out of the city, perhaps?

And a relative low population base to begin with. Clark, WA and Washington, OR have been growing at about the same rate for the past few decades. As suburban counties grow, they develop there own infrastructure, builders, grocery stores, doctors, lawyers, small companies. There could also be tax considerations and familiarity with the state. Someone from Yakima can stay in Washington, and cross the river if they need an airport or want to see an NBA game.,

[KingSweden]

Spokane County added about 6500 people, meaning it has roughly grown 30-50% more each year this decade than the year prior. It's added nearly 20,000 people.

Outside of the booming Seattle area, the big surprise is how much Clark (Vancouver) continues to grow. Portland residents being priced out of the city, perhaps?

And a relative low population base to begin with. Clark, WA and Washington, OR have been growing at about the same rate for the past few decades. As suburban counties grow, they develop there own infrastructure, builders, grocery stores, doctors, lawyers, small companies. There could also be tax considerations and familiarity with the state. Someone from Yakima can stay in Washington, and cross the river if they need an airport or want to see an NBA game.,

A good point. I know many live in Clark to avoid OR taxes but do all their shopping across the river to avoid sales tax

[Nyvin]

Maine is in population decline again,  looks like 2015 was the year New Hampshire passed Maine,  just barely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, rent in LA isn't getting any cheaper, is it?

[Kevinstat]

The closest (in population) possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts consisting of (contiguous) whole Maine counties will go from this as of and according to the 2014 estimates



to this

I was wrong.  The second map, which stayed in "second place", did overtake the first, which fell to fourth, but the closest possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts with contiguous as of and according to the 2015 estimates is



The estimates released today have the green district having 126 more people than the blue one (so each district is 63 people off).  The difference in the next closest plan (with at least technically contiguous counties) is 1,308 (each district 1,504 654 people off).

[KingSweden]

The closest (in population) possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts consisting of (contiguous) whole Maine counties will go from this as of and according to the 2014 estimates



to this

I was wrong.  The second map, which stayed in "second place", did overtake the first, which fell to fourth, but the closest possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts with contiguous as of and according to the 2015 estimates is



The estimates released today have the green district having 126 more people than the blue one (so each district is 63 people off).  The difference in the next closest plan (with at least technically contiguous counties) is 1,308 (each district 1,504 people off).

What are the partisan leans/PVI of your districts?

[Kevinstat]

The closest (in population) possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts consisting of (contiguous) whole Maine counties will go from this as of and according to the 2014 estimates



to this

I was wrong.  The second map, which stayed in "second place", did overtake the first, which fell to fourth, but the closest possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts with contiguous as of and according to the 2015 estimates is



The estimates released today have the green district having 126 more people than the blue one (so each district is 63 people off).  The difference in the next closest plan (with at least technically contiguous counties) is 1,308 (each district 1,504 654 people off).

What are the partisan leans/PVI of your districts?

I wasn't doing that with that in mind, and the easiest way on Dave's Redistricting App to generate multiple maps with shifting counties is to make each county its own district and just change the colors of the county-districts to blue and green, which wouldn't work for the election data on that app.  But I did create the last map the normal way.  I don't have the mental energy to check that out tonight but maybe over the weekend I will.

[cinyc]

Loving County, Texas and Kalawao County, Hawaii have been trading off the title of smallest county in the country over the past 6 years.  In even years, it's been Loving County.  In odd years, like 2015, it has been Kalawao County.  The 2015 esitmates have Kalawao's population at 89 and Loving's at 112. 

Kalawao's population has been stable, as it is a former leper colony with no new residents allowed.  It lost 1 resident this decade.  Loving County's population has fluctuated wildly over this decade from even year to odd year.

[cinyc]

Top 10 Counties with 10,000 or more people by percentage Population Growth 2014-2015:

McKenzie County, ND (Watford City)    16.65% (Oil and Gas)
Williams County, ND (Williston)            9.85%  (Oil and Gas)
Mountrail County, ND (Stanley)              5.97% (Oil and Gas)
Stark County, ND (Dickinson)            5.46% (Oil and Gas)
Hays County, TX (San Marcos)       5.21% (Austin sprawl)
Broomfield County, CO (Broomfield)     5.16% (Denver sprawl)
Wasatch County, UT (Heber City)           4.95% (Provo sprawl)
Comal County, TX (New Braunfels)     4.54% (San Antonio sprawl)
Sumter County, FL (The Villages)         4.29% (Retirees moving to The Villages)
Fort Bend County, TX (Sugar Land)     4.29% (Houston sprawl)

9 of the top 10 are in the central U.S.  It will be interesting to see if the North Dakota oil counties can continue to grow or will decline in the 2015-16 period.  I doubt they will grow at such a fast pace, and probably will start to decline, but I also doubted that they would grow so fast in the 2014-15 period, too.

Bottom 10 counties with 10,000 or more people by percentage Population Decline 2014-2015:
Emery County, UT (Huntington)     -2.46% (?)
Roosevelt County, NM (Portales)       -2.58% (?)
Lee County, SC (Bishopville)                -2.63% (?)
Vernon Parish, LA (Leesville)          -2.71% (Fort Polk?)
Liberty County, GA (Hinesville)       -4.10% (Fort Stewart?)
San Juan County, NM (Farmington)   -4.24% (Bad economy?)
Bleckley County, GA (Cochran)          -4.31% (?)
Chattahoochee County, GA (Cusetta) -4.45% (Fort Benning?)
Meade County, KY (Brandenburg)   -4.57% (Fort Knox?)
Greene County, MS (Leakesville)   -5.52%  (?)

4 of the bottom 10 counties seem to be due to military realignment.  The others tend to be rural counties with populations between 10,000 and 20,000 near no major city.

[Miles]

Some interactive maps (click on links):

2010 vs 2015 % Change (Swing)



2010 vs 2015 % Change compared to national rate (Trend)



2014 vs 2015 % Change (Swing)

[Nyvin]

Wow,  Mississippi was in population decline too

[Torie]

NYC continues its slower pace of growth for the past three years, en route to shoving Sullivan and Columbia counties into N&-18 in all probability. As Muon2 noted, Cook County actually lost 10,000 in population last year, while the population of the collar counties is stagnant. Apparently the charms of Chicagoland are proving resistible.

[Gass3268]

If Virginia doesn't get a 12th CD it looks like the 10th will have to shed it's non-Loudon/Fairfax parts.  Would probably lead to a 6-5 map.

[Nyvin]

If Virginia doesn't get a 12th CD it looks like the 10th will have to shed it's non-Loudon/Fairfax parts.  Would probably lead to a 6-5 map.

That would make sense,  Loudon almost grew as much in 1 year as Clarke County has in population altogether...

- Just a side note, if Oregon "doesn't" gain another congressional district in 2020, it's 5 districts will need around 850k people each if the current growth rate stays somewhat constant (big if I know, but still).     Isn't that a bit high?   If you divide Oregon's current districts evenly they're already past the 800k range. 

[Kevinstat]

- Just a side note, if Oregon "doesn't" gain another congressional district in 2020, it's 5 districts will need around 850k people each if the current growth rate stays somewhat constant (big if I know, but still).     Isn't that a bit high?   If you divide Oregon's current districts evenly they're already past the 800k range. 

That's what happens when smaller states fall just short.

Montana, with a resident population of 989,415 (and an apportionment population of 994,416) as of and according to the 2010 census, has only one congressional district.  It's been estimated as having over a million people since 2012, but I believe is generally expected to miss out on a second district in the 2020s reapportionment.