2015 county predictions

[jimrtex]

The closest (in population) possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts consisting of (contiguous) whole Maine counties will go from this as of and according to the 2014 estimates



to this

I was wrong.  The second map, which stayed in "second place", did overtake the first, which fell to fourth, but the closest possible plan for Maine's two congressional districts with contiguous as of and according to the 2015 estimates is



The estimates released today have the green district having 126 more people than the blue one (so each district is 63 people off).  The difference in the next closest plan (with at least technically contiguous counties) is 1,308 (each district 1,504 654 people off).

How many plans are there within +- 0.5% (3000-ish)?

Now imagine that you had a Citizen's Redistricting Jury, say one per 1000 persons, with a guarantee of one juror for every town, and from cities, geographically representative.

The jurors would gather in their respective county seats (or perhaps multiple locations in Aroostook). After the maps are presented, they would rank them, with the votes weighted by the population they represent. Determine the Condorcet winner, and it becomes the winning plan.

[Kevinstat]

How many plans are there within +- 0.5% (3000-ish)?

I couldn't tell whether you meant difference (as a percentage of the ideal) or deviation from the ideal (probably the latter), so I'll list both.

2015 estimates
Difference ≤ 0.5% (deviation from ideal ≤ 0.25%) of ideal district population - two plans:
1)

blue district 664,601 (-63 people or -0.01%)
green district 664,727 (+63 people or +0.01%)
difference 126 people (0.02%)

2)

blue district 664,010 (-654 people or -0.10%)
green district 665,318 (+654 people or +0.10%)
difference 1,308 people (0.20%)

Deviation from ideal ≤ 0.5% (difference ≤ 1.0%) of ideal district population - two more plans:
3)

blue district 666,941 (+2,277 people or +0.34%)
green district 662,387 (-2,277 people or -0.34%)
difference 4,554 people (0.69%)

4)

blue district 667,497 (+2,833 people or +0.43%)
green district 661,831 (-2,833 people or -0.43%)
difference 5,666 people (0.85%)

2010 census
Difference ≤ 0.5% (deviation from ideal ≤ 0.25%) of ideal district population:
No plans involving two strings of (at all) contiguous counties.

Deviation from ideal ≤ 0.5% (difference ≤ 1.0%) of ideal district population - just one plan:


blue district 662,077 (-2,103.5 people or -0.32%)
green district 666,284 (+2,103.5 people or +0.32%)
difference 4,207 people (0.63%)

Now imagine that you had a Citizen's Redistricting Jury, say one per 1000 persons, with a guarantee of one juror for every town, and from cities, geographically representative.

The jurors would gather in their respective county seats (or perhaps multiple locations in Aroostook). After the maps are presented, they would rank them, with the votes weighted by the population they represent. Determine the Condorcet winner, and it becomes the winning plan.

Interesting idea (as your ideas always are), although as the 2010 numbers show, there wouldn't always be more than one option (or potentially even one option) where the districts are close enough in population (unless you were to remove the contiguity requirement altogether).

[hopper]

In New Jersey it looks like the Migration Patterns are evening out between most of the counties. Most of the Northeastern Counties were disproportionately gaining new migrants in the first half of the decade when compared to other counties in the state. For example,  Hudson County has gained 10,270 migrants so far this decade but in the past year they actually lost 108 people. Middlesex County has gained 10,811 migrants this decade but only gained 346 new migrants this past year. Essex County which is a Northeast County that was left out of the Northeast Migration Boom in the first half of the decade is the 2nd worst county this decade at losing migrants in the state. Its only 8th worst in he past year out of all the counties in the state of losing migrants. Bergen County is still gaining a lot of new migrants in the Northeast Part of the state though.

[hopper]

Largest percentage gain in NY was... the Bronx!  Warms my heart.

NY State would have had a population loss were it not for the City.

....and if not for a lot of international migration as well.

[hopper]

Largest percentage gain in NY was... the Bronx!  Warms my heart.

NY State would have had a population loss were it not for the City.

That used to be true in IL, but apparently no longer. Cook lost 10K which is about half of the overall loss for the state. The Chicagoland area no longer makes up for losses in downstate IL. In fact the greater Chicagp metro extending into IN and WI lost 7K last year in the new estimates.

I'm surprised a lot of people are leaving Cook County. You see people like on the HGTV show "House Hunters" shopping for a place. I haven't really watched "House Hunters" in like 2 years so I might be a little behind the curve!

[jimrtex]

How many plans are there within +- 0.5% (3000-ish)?

I couldn't tell whether you meant difference (as a percentage of the ideal) or deviation from the ideal (probably the latter), so I'll list both.

2015 estimates
Difference ≤ 0.5% (deviation from ideal ≤ 0.25%) of ideal district population - two plans:
1)

blue district 664,601 (-63 people or -0.01%)
green district 664,727 (+63 people or +0.01%)
difference 126 people (0.02%)

2)

blue district 664,010 (-654 people or -0.10%)
green district 665,318 (+654 people or +0.10%)
difference 1,308 people (0.20%)

Deviation from ideal ≤ 0.5% (difference ≤ 1.0%) of ideal district population - two more plans:
3)

blue district 666,941 (+2,277 people or +0.34%)
green district 662,387 (-2,277 people or -0.34%)
difference 4,554 people (0.69%)

4)

blue district 667,497 (+2,833 people or +0.43%)
green district 661,831 (-2,833 people or -0.43%)
difference 5,666 people (0.85%)

2010 census
Difference ≤ 0.5% (deviation from ideal ≤ 0.25%) of ideal district population:
No plans involving two strings of (at all) contiguous counties.

Deviation from ideal ≤ 0.5% (difference ≤ 1.0%) of ideal district population - just one plan:


blue district 662,077 (-2,103.5 people or -0.32%)
green district 666,284 (+2,103.5 people or +0.32%)
difference 4,207 people (0.63%)

Now imagine that you had a Citizen's Redistricting Jury, say one per 1000 persons, with a guarantee of one juror for every town, and from cities, geographically representative.

The jurors would gather in their respective county seats (or perhaps multiple locations in Aroostook). After the maps are presented, they would rank them, with the votes weighted by the population they represent. Determine the Condorcet winner, and it becomes the winning plan.

Interesting idea (as your ideas always are), although as the 2010 numbers show, there wouldn't always be more than one option (or potentially even one option) where the districts are close enough in population (unless you were to remove the contiguity requirement altogether).

You might have to open up the rules and permit county splitting. Let's say that you had a limit of +/- 5% without splitting counties. If any of these 5% plans could be improved by switching one county, then it would be eliminated.

Then for each of the plans in the 0.5% to 5% range, alternatives that would split one county, without splitting towns could be proposed. This might involve a two-stage process: (1) jurors in each county on the less populous side of the district-boundary would choose a most preferred (least disliked) county split for their county, and then the state jury would choose a preferred refinement of the base county plan.

There could also be a connectivity constraint, where Aroostook could only connect to Washington and Penobscot, and perhaps Piscataquis to Penobscot. These would have eliminated plans 1 and 3 from 2015, and the 2010 plan.

Are you a native Mainer? Is Piscataquis pronounced as in the song, or is changed to fit the meter?

Maine County Song(mp3)

[Kevinstat]

How many plans are there within +- 0.5% (3000-ish)?

I couldn't tell whether you meant difference (as a percentage of the ideal) or deviation from the ideal (probably the latter), so I'll list both.

2015 estimates
Difference ≤ 0.5% (deviation from ideal ≤ 0.25%) of ideal district population - two plans:
1)

blue district 664,601 (-63 people or -0.01%)
green district 664,727 (+63 people or +0.01%)
difference 126 people (0.02%)

2)

blue district 664,010 (-654 people or -0.10%)
green district 665,318 (+654 people or +0.10%)
difference 1,308 people (0.20%)

Deviation from ideal ≤ 0.5% (difference ≤ 1.0%) of ideal district population - two more plans:
3)

blue district 666,941 (+2,277 people or +0.34%)
green district 662,387 (-2,277 people or -0.34%)
difference 4,554 people (0.69%)

4)

blue district 667,497 (+2,833 people or +0.43%)
green district 661,831 (-2,833 people or -0.43%)
difference 5,666 people (0.85%)

2010 census
Difference ≤ 0.5% (deviation from ideal ≤ 0.25%) of ideal district population:
No plans involving two strings of (at all) contiguous counties.

Deviation from ideal ≤ 0.5% (difference ≤ 1.0%) of ideal district population - just one plan:


blue district 662,077 (-2,103.5 people or -0.32%)
green district 666,284 (+2,103.5 people or +0.32%)
difference 4,207 people (0.63%)

Now imagine that you had a Citizen's Redistricting Jury, say one per 1000 persons, with a guarantee of one juror for every town, and from cities, geographically representative.

The jurors would gather in their respective county seats (or perhaps multiple locations in Aroostook). After the maps are presented, they would rank them, with the votes weighted by the population they represent. Determine the Condorcet winner, and it becomes the winning plan.

Interesting idea (as your ideas always are), although as the 2010 numbers show, there wouldn't always be more than one option (or potentially even one option) where the districts are close enough in population (unless you were to remove the contiguity requirement altogether).

You might have to open up the rules and permit county splitting. Let's say that you had a limit of +/- 5% without splitting counties. If any of these 5% plans could be improved by switching one county, then it would be eliminated.

Then for each of the plans in the 0.5% to 5% range, alternatives that would split one county, without splitting towns could be proposed. This might involve a two-stage process: (1) jurors in each county on the less populous side of the district-boundary would choose a most preferred (least disliked) county split for their county, and then the state jury would choose a preferred refinement of the base county plan.

There could also be a connectivity constraint, where Aroostook could only connect to Washington and Penobscot, and perhaps Piscataquis to Penobscot. These would have eliminated plans 1 and 3 from 2015, and the 2010 plan.

Piscataquis County is connected to both Penobscot and Somerset Counties by multiple state routes.  The only counties that border each other that have aren't undisputedly connected are (1) Aroostook-Somerset (flagrant), (2) Aroostook-Piscataquis (would also be considered flagrant by most, although there is or was a decent logging path connecting the two counties and there was a Senate district consisting of Piscataquis County and western Aroostook County (with none of Penobscot) used in the 1968 and 1970 elections in the first post-OMOV State Senate plan, drawn by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, no less), and (3) Hancock-Knox (the most obvious albeit probably the least flagrant, and Knox County contains one town, Isle au Haut (that just held it's 2015 town meeting a year late), that is connected by ferry only to Stonington in Hancock County, and Isle au Haut was in a State Senate district otherwise entirely in Hancock County (or with one neighboring town from Penobscot) from the 1972 through 1992 (primary and general) elections and again from the 2004 through 2012 elections, although it's been in Maine's first congressional district since Maine went down to 2 CDs in 1962, and as far as I know has been in the same CD as the rest of Knox County since it was shifted from Hancock County sometime around 1910).

There are some instances where part of a county is pretty much cut off from the rest of that county (Route 16 in northern Oxford County, Wellington in Piscataquis County (the usually Atlas red town in the southeastern corner, settled by "Back to the landers" in the 1970s I think), and Sagadahoc County which basically is cut in two by Merrymeeting Bay (it's current Senate district includes Dresden in Lincoln County which connects the two halves, but I'm sure candidates aren't above travelling through Brunswick outside the district to get from Bath to Topsham or vice versa)), but every main portion of each county is connected to the main portion of every county it borders by state rounts with the three above exceptions (and that obviously the Bath half of Sagadahoc County doesn't even border, let alone have a direct connection to Androscoggin or Kennebec counties, but both the Bath and Topsham halves of the county are connected to both Cumberland and Lincoln counties).  Perhaps there should be a ban on using the Androscoggin-Sagadahoc-Lincoln route without Kennebec or Cumberland counties (York + Cumberland + Oxford + Franklin + Kennebec is +5.06% based on the 2015 estimates, up from +3.82% in 2010, but could perhaps dip back under the +5% figure).

Are you a native Mainer?

Yes.  I'm a lifelong Maine resident, and a lifelong resident of one of three municipalities (two of which border the third municipality) in Kennebec County apart from my time at the University of Maine at Farmington (I was registered to vote in Farmington, using my dorm room as my address, for about half a year after a major embezzlement scandal broke in Manchester and local politics got nasty, and then I helped vote in a bunch of conservatives as selectmen without realizing it*, and I voted in Farmington for the 2001 referenda election (with one local question IIRC) and attended the 2002 Democratic caucuses there, but was back in Manchester by the time of the June primary).  I moved to Augusta, where I lived until I was four, three years ago.

*One of the conservatives elected in 2001 was elected to the State House the following year after the-then incumbent State Rep. tried to hold incompatible offices, but he switched parties a year later and was reelected in 2004 as a Democrat (and I voted for him a second time, having held my nose and voted for the incumbent Democrat in 2002).  That guy retired in 2006 and tried to make a comeback in 2007 when his Republican successor died in a ski accident, but he lost the nod of the combined town committees in the district to the 2006 Democratic candidate.  That guy, elected in June, died of cancer that fall, and his widow was elected in November and reelected in 2008 before losing in 2010.  I was in one of my Independent phases at the time so I wasn't able to go to either "caucus" where candidates were nominated (Maine doesn't have primaries for special elections other than for Governor or either house of Congress, not even for county offices where any special elections are held midway through a four-year term on the general election ballot).

Is Piscataquis pronounced as in the song, or is changed to fit the meter?

Maine County Song(mp3)

That's how it's pronounced.  When I was in high school they didn't have the "The" and "are" at the beginning of the song, so the first line (or two lines, depending on how you look at it) was "Sixteen counties in are state, Cumberland and Franklin," which was noticeably drawn out to fit "Yankee Doodle", and I couldn't resist the temptation to improve the song's fidelity to the original tune by going

"Sixteen counties in our state, Cum-
berland and Franklin, Pis- [deliberate "ss" snake sound]
cataguis and Somerset,
Aroostook, Androscoggin,"

and then, well, I should have just proceeded as normal but I would overdo things even when the humor was exhausted so I would also move syllables in the second half of the song,

"Sagadahoc and Kene-
bec, Lincoln, Knox and Han-
cock, Waldo, Washington and
York, Oxford and Penobscot"

More weird, less of an improvement in the fidelity of the song to the original tune, and less funny, although there is a "cock" in there.

[jimrtex]

Now imagine that you had a Citizen's Redistricting Jury, say one per 1000 persons, with a guarantee of one juror for every town, and from cities, geographically representative.

The jurors would gather in their respective county seats (or perhaps multiple locations in Aroostook). After the maps are presented, they would rank them, with the votes weighted by the population they represent. Determine the Condorcet winner, and it becomes the winning plan.

Interesting idea (as your ideas always are), although as the 2010 numbers show, there wouldn't always be more than one option (or potentially even one option) where the districts are close enough in population (unless you were to remove the contiguity requirement altogether).

You might have to open up the rules and permit county splitting. Let's say that you had a limit of +/- 5% without splitting counties. If any of these 5% plans could be improved by switching one county, then it would be eliminated.

Then for each of the plans in the 0.5% to 5% range, alternatives that would split one county, without splitting towns could be proposed. This might involve a two-stage process: (1) jurors in each county on the less populous side of the district-boundary would choose a most preferred (least disliked) county split for their county, and then the state jury would choose a preferred refinement of the base county plan.

There could also be a connectivity constraint, where Aroostook could only connect to Washington and Penobscot, and perhaps Piscataquis to Penobscot. These would have eliminated plans 1 and 3 from 2015, and the 2010 plan.

Piscataquis County is connected to both Penobscot and Somerset Counties by multiple state routes.  The only counties that border each other that have aren't undisputedly connected are (1) Aroostook-Somerset (flagrant), (2) Aroostook-Piscataquis (would also be considered flagrant by most, although there is or was a decent logging path connecting the two counties and there was a Senate district consisting of Piscataquis County and western Aroostook County (with none of Penobscot) used in the 1968 and 1970 elections in the first post-OMOV State Senate plan, drawn by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, no less), and (3) Hancock-Knox (the most obvious albeit probably the least flagrant, and Knox County contains one town, Isle au Haut (that just held it's 2015 town meeting a year late), that is connected by ferry only to Stonington in Hancock County, and Isle au Haut was in a State Senate district otherwise entirely in Hancock County (or with one neighboring town from Penobscot) from the 1972 through 1992 (primary and general) elections and again from the 2004 through 2012 elections, although it's been in Maine's first congressional district since Maine went down to 2 CDs in 1962, and as far as I know has been in the same CD as the rest of Knox County since it was shifted from Hancock County sometime around 1910).

There are some instances where part of a county is pretty much cut off from the rest of that county (Route 16 in northern Oxford County, Wellington in Piscataquis County (the usually Atlas red town in the southeastern corner, settled by "Back to the landers" in the 1970s I think), and Sagadahoc County which basically is cut in two by Merrymeeting Bay (it's current Senate district includes Dresden in Lincoln County which connects the two halves, but I'm sure candidates aren't above travelling through Brunswick outside the district to get from Bath to Topsham or vice versa)), but every main portion of each county is connected to the main portion of every county it borders by state rounts with the three above exceptions (and that obviously the Bath half of Sagadahoc County doesn't even border, let alone have a direct connection to Androscoggin or Kennebec counties, but both the Bath and Topsham halves of the county are connected to both Cumberland and Lincoln counties).  Perhaps there should be a ban on using the Androscoggin-Sagadahoc-Lincoln route without Kennebec or Cumberland counties (York + Cumberland + Oxford + Franklin + Kennebec is +5.06% based on the 2015 estimates, up from +3.82% in 2010, but could perhaps dip back under the +5% figure).

My recollection from when doing the temporal apportionment of Maine was that Piscataquis fit well with the western part of Penobscot (Piscataquis was the only county that wasn't populous enough for its own district), and the Bangor area had multiple districts (my recollections was faulty - I had to add a few towns to Franklin, Lincoln, and Washington to get them up to 3.0 representatives).

I suspect if  you took the towns with 90% or 95% of the population of the northern counties you would have a better starting point for redistricting (maybe have the people from the north, move to the county seat until redistricting is done, and then let them move back home).

Why is Aroostook populated? Was it not forested as well?

Are you a native Mainer?

Is Piscataquis pronounced as in the song, or is changed to fit the meter?

Maine County Song(mp3)

Yes [to being a Maine native]

That's how it's pronounced.  When I was in high school they didn't have the "The" and "are" at the beginning of the song, so the first line (or two lines, depending on how you look at it) was "Sixteen counties in are state, Cumberland and Franklin," which was noticeably drawn out to fit "Yankee Doodle", and I couldn't resist the temptation to improve the song's fidelity to the original tune by going

"Sixteen counties in our state, Cum-
berland and Franklin, Pis- [deliberate "ss" snake sound]
cataguis and Somerset,
Aroostook, Androscoggin,"

and then, well, I should have just proceeded as normal but I would overdo things even when the humor was exhausted so I would also move syllables in the second half of the song,

"Sagadahoc and Kene-
bec, Lincoln, Knox and Han-
cock, Waldo, Washington and
York, Oxford and Penobscot"

More weird, less of an improvement in the fidelity of the song to the original tune, and less funny, although there is a "cock" in there.

I had decided there was no way I was going to be able to spell Piscataquis, so I googled for "Piscato County Maine" and was directed to the SOS page with the 16 county songs. I wonder if Google was scary smart and knew I was saying that I didn't no how to spell the county names.

I had to figure out if you were a native, because the song is probably only sung in schools.

I don't think there is an equivalent in Texas:

'There's 254 counties in Texas, 254 counties in all
Anderson down and pass it around, 253 counties in all.
'There's 253 counties in Texas, 253 counties in all
Andrews down and pass it around,
.
.
.
[OK class, we'll stop here and finish up tomorrow]
.
.
'There's one county in Texas, one county in all
Zavala down and pass it around'

99 beers on the wall (Youtube)

[jimrtex]

Now imagine that you had a Citizen's Redistricting Jury, say one per 1000 persons, with a guarantee of one juror for every town, and from cities, geographically representative.

The jurors would gather in their respective county seats (or perhaps multiple locations in Aroostook). After the maps are presented, they would rank them, with the votes weighted by the population they represent. Determine the Condorcet winner, and it becomes the winning plan.

Interesting idea (as your ideas always are), although as the 2010 numbers show, there wouldn't always be more than one option (or potentially even one option) where the districts are close enough in population (unless you were to remove the contiguity requirement altogether).

You might have to open up the rules and permit county splitting. Let's say that you had a limit of +/- 5% without splitting counties. If any of these 5% plans could be improved by switching one county, then it would be eliminated.

Then for each of the plans in the 0.5% to 5% range, alternatives that would split one county, without splitting towns could be proposed. This might involve a two-stage process: (1) jurors in each county on the less populous side of the district-boundary would choose a most preferred (least disliked) county split for their county, and then the state jury would choose a preferred refinement of the base county plan.

There could also be a connectivity constraint, where Aroostook could only connect to Washington and Penobscot, and perhaps Piscataquis to Penobscot. These would have eliminated plans 1 and 3 from 2015, and the 2010 plan.

Piscataquis County is connected to both Penobscot and Somerset Counties by multiple state routes.  The only counties that border each other that have aren't undisputedly connected are (1) Aroostook-Somerset (flagrant), (2) Aroostook-Piscataquis (would also be considered flagrant by most, although there is or was a decent logging path connecting the two counties and there was a Senate district consisting of Piscataquis County and western Aroostook County (with none of Penobscot) used in the 1968 and 1970 elections in the first post-OMOV State Senate plan, drawn by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, no less), and (3) Hancock-Knox (the most obvious albeit probably the least flagrant, and Knox County contains one town, Isle au Haut (that just held it's 2015 town meeting a year late), that is connected by ferry only to Stonington in Hancock County, and Isle au Haut was in a State Senate district otherwise entirely in Hancock County (or with one neighboring town from Penobscot) from the 1972 through 1992 (primary and general) elections and again from the 2004 through 2012 elections, although it's been in Maine's first congressional district since Maine went down to 2 CDs in 1962, and as far as I know has been in the same CD as the rest of Knox County since it was shifted from Hancock County sometime around 1910).

There are some instances where part of a county is pretty much cut off from the rest of that county (Route 16 in northern Oxford County, Wellington in Piscataquis County (the usually Atlas red town in the southeastern corner, settled by "Back to the landers" in the 1970s I think), and Sagadahoc County which basically is cut in two by Merrymeeting Bay (it's current Senate district includes Dresden in Lincoln County which connects the two halves, but I'm sure candidates aren't above travelling through Brunswick outside the district to get from Bath to Topsham or vice versa)), but every main portion of each county is connected to the main portion of every county it borders by state rounts with the three above exceptions (and that obviously the Bath half of Sagadahoc County doesn't even border, let alone have a direct connection to Androscoggin or Kennebec counties, but both the Bath and Topsham halves of the county are connected to both Cumberland and Lincoln counties).  Perhaps there should be a ban on using the Androscoggin-Sagadahoc-Lincoln route without Kennebec or Cumberland counties (York + Cumberland + Oxford + Franklin + Kennebec is +5.06% based on the 2015 estimates, up from +3.82% in 2010, but could perhaps dip back under the +5% figure).

My recollection from when doing the temporal apportionment of Maine was that Piscataquis fit well with the western part of Penobscot (Piscataquis was the only county that wasn't populous enough for its own district), and the Bangor area had multiple districts (my recollections was faulty - I had to add a few towns to Franklin, Lincoln, and Washington to get them up to 3.0 representatives).

I suspect if  you took the towns with 90% or 95% of the population of the northern counties you would have a better starting point for redistricting (maybe have the people from the north, move to the county seat until redistricting is done, and then let them move back home).

Why is Aroostook populated? Was it not forested as well?

Are you a native Mainer?

Is Piscataquis pronounced as in the song, or is changed to fit the meter?

Maine County Song(mp3)

Yes [to being a Maine native]

That's how it's pronounced.  When I was in high school they didn't have the "The" and "are" at the beginning of the song, so the first line (or two lines, depending on how you look at it) was "Sixteen counties in are state, Cumberland and Franklin," which was noticeably drawn out to fit "Yankee Doodle", and I couldn't resist the temptation to improve the song's fidelity to the original tune by going

"Sixteen counties in our state, Cum-
berland and Franklin, Pis- [deliberate "ss" snake sound]
cataguis and Somerset,
Aroostook, Androscoggin,"

and then, well, I should have just proceeded as normal but I would overdo things even when the humor was exhausted so I would also move syllables in the second half of the song,

"Sagadahoc and Kene-
bec, Lincoln, Knox and Han-
cock, Waldo, Washington and
York, Oxford and Penobscot"

More weird, less of an improvement in the fidelity of the song to the original tune, and less funny, although there is a "cock" in there.

I had decided there was no way I was going to be able to spell Piscataquis, so I googled for "Piscato County Maine" and was directed to the SOS page with the 16 county songs. I wonder if Google was scary smart and knew I was saying that I didn't no how to spell the county names.

I had to figure out if you were a native, because the song is probably only sung in schools.

I don't think there is an equivalent in Texas:

'There's 254 counties in Texas, 254 counties in all
Anderson down and pass it around, 253 counties in all.
'There's 253 counties in Texas, 253 counties in all
Andrews down and pass it around,
.
.
.
[OK class, we'll stop here and finish up tomorrow]
.
.
'There's one county in Texas, one county in all
Zavala down and pass it around'

99 beers on the wall (Youtube)

[Kevinstat]

Just to be clear on the pronunciation of Piscataquis, it's

either "his" with a 'p' or an off-color name for urine (I've always used the latter, but I've heard is pronounced the "his" way and that actually may be the correct way) (in any case, the off-color name is definitely not to be dragged out like I did in my version of the Maine County Song)
cat (most emphasized)
the 'a' in "Atlanta"
"quit" with an 's' instead of a 't' (second most emphasized)

[Kevinstat]

My recollection from when doing the temporal apportionment of Maine was that Piscataquis fit well with the western part of Penobscot (Piscataquis was the only county that wasn't populous enough for its own district), and the Bangor area had multiple districts (my recollections was faulty - I had to add a few towns to Franklin, Lincoln, and Washington to get them up to 3.0 representatives).

The towns in Penobscot County south of Piscataquis do fit well (in the non-numbers sense) with Piscataquis County (very similar politically, which bears keeping in mind when people dismiss Piscataquis County going to McCain in 2008 when much of it has next to no population; the same can't be said for the western bulge of Penobscot County).  If you were to draw the type of map that you (or maybe it was Muon2) drew for Washington State, the Piscataquis-Penobscot connection might warrant a thicker line, but if the Piscataquis-Somerset connection was given a thinner line you'd have to do that for some other connections as well (York-Oxford, ...

crap, I just realized there's one other pair of counties (besides Aroostook-Somerset, Aroostook-Piscataquis and Hancock-Knox) that border each other that don't have a state route crossing the boundary: Lincoln-Waldo.  Of course, if Lincoln and Waldo county are in the same CD without either Kennebec or Knox counties then Knox County would have to be in with Hancock, so any plan with 2 CDs that relies on the Lincoln-Waldo boundary for one district to be contiguous must rely on the Hancock-Knox water boundary for the other district to be contiguous.  There is the Turner Ridge Road connecting Somerville in Lincoln County and Palermo in Waldo County, but it's not a state route and there aren't even the green signs with arrows and "SOMERVILLE" OR "PALERMO" directing people to take that road (there sometimes are even for non-state routes).  The two counties shared a sizable border until Knox County was created from (at least mostly) parts of those two counties in I think the mid-19th century (after Maine became a state).

I suspect if  you took the towns with 90% or 95% of the population of the northern counties you would have a better starting point for redistricting (maybe have the people from the north, move to the county seat until redistricting is done, and then let them move back home).

How generous of you.

Why is Aroostook populated? Was it not forested as well?

Much of its western bulge still is, but I'm not sure if the farmland near the New Brunswick border was ever a natural forest.  Of course, I've read from conservative writers that concentration of CO2 in trees (that is alleviated by timber harvesting) would result in huge forest fires that would clear-cut huge sections of forest, and for that reason many once forested areas of North America were deforested when Europeans arrived.  I really don't know about (eastern) Aroostook County.

As for why it's populated, it's good farmland (Maine was once the #1 potato producer in the U.S., but is well down the list today), and the western part of "The County", as it's often called, has large lumber resources (that's probably why the town of Allagash exists).  Also, once northeastern Maine had some population, it was able to attract people from New Brunswick like my great-grandfather, while the French Canadians who came to Maine from Quebec Provence (earlier than my great grandfather I know, but I imagine there was some immigration from New Brunswick at that time) travelled by rail through New Hampshire to places like Lewiston that aren't close to the Quebec border.  If that railroad had gone to Boston instead of Portland which was considered at the time, Maine's history would be very different.  There was a "Northwest Maine" thread on The Forum Which Cannot Be Named that observed that once you get into Quebec, "you start seeing civilization again."  Along the Maine-New Brunswick border, there's civilization on both sides (although rapidly declining on parts of the Maine side).

[Torie]

I cranked the NY numbers, and assuming the growth rate of the counties in NY continues at the same rate for the balance of the decade as during the past three years, the NYC metro area plus Sullivan county has 18.001 CD's, and thus the map below is a perfect fit (I drew NY 16-18). I sent the map to Will Yandik, and he was most pleased (his career would end if Columbia County is absorbed into NY-18). He thinks he can beat Teachout with a high turnout election (more moderate voters), but not otherwise (more hardcore Lefties). He says his polls show him in good shape in the general election. So if he can navigate through all of this, he might be in Congress for a long time. It will be kind of nice to have someone in Congress who is a personal friend.



And here is the map for upstate NY:

[jimrtex]

I cranked the NY numbers, and assuming the growth rate of the counties in NY continues at the same rate for the balance of the decade as during the past three years, the NYC metro area plus Sullivan county has 18.001 CD's, and thus the map below is a perfect fit (I drew NY 16-18). I sent the map to Will Yandik, and he was most pleased (his career would end if Columbia County is absorbed into NY-18). He thinks he can beat Teachout with a high turnout election (more moderate voters), but not otherwise (more hardcore Lefties). He says his polls show him in good shape in the general election. So if he can navigate through all of this, he might be in Congress for a long time. It will be kind of nice to have someone in Congress who is a personal friend.

Why wouldn't you finish up NY-16 in Westchester, rather than grabbing a bit of Rockland. Then take the 4 northern counties and place them with northern Westchester in NY-18. NY-17 would be Rockland plus the remnant of Westchester.

And here is the map for upstate NY:

I'd swap Schoharie for a different cut of Herkimer; move all of Madison into NY-22, and remove the fragment of Broome out of it (this is a chop of a UCC, no?). Is the chop of Allegany necessary?

How close is the population of the western 5 districts to 5.000?

Is there a pack rule for the Rochester and Albany UCC? If not, I'd look at putting Columbia and Greene in an Albany-based district.

Has NY-19 moved to Florida?

[Torie]

I changed the map. It generated a disfavored bridge chop, and anyway, this version is better in all events. Comment on that one. Yes, the pack rule is alive and well. I created it, follow it where profitable, and protect it against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Herk's chop is small, and the chop to the north is popular, because the area is so remote. Cutting deeper is messy. It could interfere with the east-west arterial in that county, as well as generate a macro-chop. The court this time similarly chopped Herkimer. It's a popular choice. Yes, the chop of Allegheny is probably necessary. There is a 7.2k gap, with only two CD's to absorb it. If that were done, there would be a subunit chop in Erie, or Allegheny (and although Allegheny does not involve a macro-chop, subunit chops should be punished always in some manner), or both.


NY-19 is like the number of a champion baseball player, and NY-19 is that champion. It's the best place on earth, and getting better all the time. So the number has been permanently retired. I hope that helps.

[jimrtex]

I changed the map. It generated a disfavored bridge chop, and anyway, this version is better in all events. Comment on that one. Yes, the pack rule is alive and well. I created it, follow it where profitable, and protect it against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Herk's chop is small, and the chop to the north is popular, because the area is so remote. Cutting deeper is messy. It could interfere with the east-west arterial in that county, as well as generate a macro-chop. The court this time similarly chopped Herkimer. It's a popular choice. Yes, the chop of Allegheny is probably necessary. There is a 7.2k gap, with only two CD's to absorb it. If that were done, there would be a subunit chop in Erie, or Allegheny (and although Allegheny does not involve a macro-chop, subunit chops should be punished always in some manner), or both.

NY-19 is like the number of a champion baseball player, and NY-19 is that champion. It's the best place on earth, and getting better all the time. So the number has been permanently retired. I hope that helps.

Where was the bridge chop?

Since the Rochester and Albany UCC are going to be divided anyway, why does it matter where the split is?

What if you put all of Herkimer in your Hudson-centric district, and get the extra population for the North County district from Oswego? Won't that improve the splits of Seneca and Chenango?






So you told your friend that hopes to be elected to NY-19 that this NY-22 is just as good? Incidentally other players wore NYY-3 after Babe Ruth before it was retired.

Historically the district was:

Cortland+Onondaga
Clinton+Essex+Franklin+Warren
Otsego
Jefferson
Otesgo+Delaware
Otsego+Delaware+Chenango
Fulton+Hamilton+Saratoga+Schenectaday+Montgomery
St.Lawrence+Franklin
Albany
Columbia+Rensselaer
Westchester
Manhattan (Upper West Side 86th St to 125th St)
Manhattan (Lower East Side, Chinatown?, south of 40th St)
Manhattan (Southern tip, south of 20th St on east, south of 21st St on west)
Manhattan (Southern tip and Lower West Side, south of 14th St on east, south of 86th St on west)
Manhattan (Harlem, 90th St to 188th St)
Bronx+Westchester (part)
Westchester+Rockland+Putnam+Dutchess
etc.

Journeyman minor leaguer, got a cup of coffee in the bigs, last seen playing independent minor league somewhere upstate, Hudson or Troy, maybe?


 

[Torie]

"What if you put all of Herkimer in your Hudson-centric district, and get the extra population for the North County district from Oswego? Won't that improve the splits of Seneca and Chenango?"

No enough to get rid of them. My cut in Madison generated the bridge chop. There is no state highway between Onondaga and Otsego in that narrow boundary.

[muon2]

My question is how much the macrochop of Saratoga hurts. You can trade a pack chop of Albany for a county chop and get rid of the macrochop. I get that doesn't get the political result for Hudson you would like, but should that be relevant for a neutral map?

[Torie]

My question is how much the macrochop of Saratoga hurts. You can trade a pack chop of Albany for a county chop and get rid of the macrochop. I get that doesn't get the political result for Hudson you would like, but should that be relevant for a neutral map?

What county chop is lost by Columbia being absorbed into the Albany CD?

Well, it looks like the map below would work. It loses one chop net. Hopefully it is not competitive with my map in erosity (due to macro chopped Saratoga), since I very much dislike it. Albany losing Schenectady and taking in all of Saratoga and Columbia  leaves it about 6k short in population, and i don't see where NY-22 picks up the 60k population lost in Columbia without another chop. But my computer crashed, so much of my split data on my spreadsheet was lost, so I am just eyeballing it.

[muon2]

My question is how much the macrochop of Saratoga hurts. You can trade a pack chop of Albany for a county chop and get rid of the macrochop. I get that doesn't get the political result for Hudson you would like, but should that be relevant for a neutral map?

What county chop is lost by Columbia being absorbed into the Albany CD?

That depends on the numbers, since mine are not the same as yours. I presume that is because I'm using a baseline back to 4/1/10 then projecting the 7/1/15 estimates forward another 4.75 years. For example I find that I don't need to chop Broome as that plus the other 3 most western CDs are only 1550 off in population for 4 CDs.

Given my numbers I found two different ways to use all but one of the Albany UCC counties in a  whole county CD within 0.5%. Adding Montgomery and Schoharie to the UCC minus Renssalaer is 0.47% over quota and quite compact.

Taking Albany out of the UCC and adding Warren, Washington, Columbia and Greene creates a CD at 0.38% over quota. It's not as compact, but it also allows a whole county CD for the North Country so it eliminates two chops. That bring the number of upstate chops to 3 plus the macrochop of Erie and pack penalty for Albany. Depending on actual population growth it may also be possible to swap Montgomery for Greene in 2020.

[Torie]

Yes, I assume the growth rates stay the same as for the past three years (NYC continues at a slower growth rate, which seems reasonable to me).  But that would not make much difference for upstate, which has a steady population decline in most places, or a steady uptick in a couple of places, like Saratoga County. Your map is certainly creative. You detached Albany from the rest of its metro area! That map won't happen in real life. Is there a danger with our metrics, that such a map would knock all the other maps out of the box, because it wins on both erosity and chops, while detaching the inner city county and putting it with an otherwise rural zone? That is not good. The folks on the Fruited Plain won't like it.

I don't like what you did to Erie either. Why did you do that? It seems bad form to create more of a chop of Erie, but having its inner core take in another county. That's just bad policy to me. Does it reduce highway cuts?

One penalty point for each county severed off from the core county in a metro area, and a penalty point for increasing the size of a chop of a county larger than a CD, are rules that one might consider. Yes, I know, you won't like it.

[muon2]

Yes, I assume the growth rates stay the same as for the past three years (NYC continues at a slower growth rate, which seems reasonable to me).  But that would not make much difference for upstate, which has a steady population decline in most places, or a steady uptick in a couple of places, like Saratoga County. Your map is certainly creative. You detached Albany from the rest of its metro area! That map won't happen in real life. Is there a danger with our metrics, that such a map would knock all the other maps out of the box, because it wins on both erosity and chops, while detaching the inner city county and putting it with an otherwise rural zone? That is not good. The folks on the Fruited Plain won't like it.

I don't like what you did to Erie either. Why did you do that? It seems bad form to create more of a chop of Erie, but having its inner core take in another county. That's just bad policy to me. Does it reduce highway cuts?

One penalty point for each county severed off from the core county in a metro area, and a penalty point for increasing the size of a chop of a county larger than a CD, are rules that one might consider. Yes, I know, you won't like it.

Indeed I won't like it. I've never been a fan of insisting that large counties necessarily have a district nested within, especially when the UCC has two or more counties (nb Niagara is a central county in the UCC just like Erie, the MSA is even called the Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls MSA). A chop is a chop and it shouldn't matter whether that chop created a nested district or not, erosity takes over for me at that point. Since Niagara is in the corner of the state it does reduce erosity to put a district in the corner, so I did that. Putting a district in a corner instead of wrapping around an edge would improve compactness with most methods.

My map above won't necessarily win on erosity. As I mentioned there's a more compact Albany CD that drops Renssalaer. I just liked my North Country CD, so I used the version I displayed. Personally I like the swap of Greene for Montgomery in my plan, since it makes the Albany green CD quite compact and reduces erosity by 2, but it would cost me a microchop based on current estimates, so I didn't use it.

What hurts your plan is the macrochop of Saratoga, because it opens the door to viewing erosity on an urban scale, not just as rural links. But the way it stands now, obeying the pack rule in the Albany UCC requires a macrochop. That's the trade off in the system - improving the chop score at the expense of erosity.

[muon2]

This arrangement of the Albany area might be more politically palatable. It has the same number of chops and reduces erosity by 2 compared to my previous plan. This district arrangement is suggested by the previous CDs from the 2000 redistricting.

[Torie]

Much better (although your NY-19 does snake around but that's life), although the underlying issue remains. It would only really obtain however for metro areas about the size of Albany, where substantially more than one CD, but less than two CD's, are in play, with more than two counties involved. Still, that involves a fair amount of places.

[muon2]

Much better (although your NY-19 does snake around but that's life), although the underlying issue remains. It would only really obtain however for metro areas about the size of Albany, where substantially more than one CD, but less than two CD's, are in play, with more than two counties involved. Still, that involves a fair amount of places.

Albany's issue is complicated because the UCC lacks any small counties (ie under 10% of the quota). In this case it forces a macrochop to maintain the pack rule. If Schoharie, which is in the MSA, urbanized enough to meet the UCC standard, then the pack could be addressed with a simple chop.

The situation was similar in the Grand Rapids UCC when we were first fleshing out the UCC rules. By use of a number of plans, and some detailed analysis, we came to the conclusion that the UCC rules and macrochop erosity were reasonably balanced.

[Torie]

Much better (although your NY-19 does snake around but that's life), although the underlying issue remains. It would only really obtain however for metro areas about the size of Albany, where substantially more than one CD, but less than two CD's, are in play, with more than two counties involved. Still, that involves a fair amount of places.

Albany's issue is complicated because the UCC lacks any small counties (ie under 10% of the quota). In this case it forces a macrochop to maintain the pack rule. If Schoharie, which is in the MSA, urbanized enough to meet the UCC standard, then the pack could be addressed with a simple chop.

The situation was similar in the Grand Rapids UCC when we were first fleshing out the UCC rules. By use of a number of plans, and some detailed analysis, we came to the conclusion that the UCC rules and macrochop erosity were reasonably balanced.

In Grand Rapids, you have only two counties in the zone, and severing them from each other is not that much of an issue. It is when you sever the core county out of a pack of three, or if a four pack, have two counties each in separate CD's and so forth, that the common sense rule is put under a lot of strain, and becomes something that folks won't like.