Jeb Bush after all?

[zorkpolitics]

Common wisdom is that there is no way Jeb Bush can  run in 2008, since a Bush has been President 12/20 years.  But John Podhoretz makes the case Jeb could, and perhaps should:

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/47405.htm

So given that Hiliary is the current favorite for  the Democrats, will 2008 be another Bush v Clinton?

If so who would win?

Bush would hold the conservative base, Hillary the liberal base, and once again the battle for the 10% left in the middle would decide the election.

[PADem]

Firstly, I doubt he would run in 2008. I don't doubt a 2012 or maybe a 2016 run but no way he runs this year. The dynasty effect alone would hurt him too much.

As for Hillary v Jeb, as much as I hate her Hillary would win this race winning all the Kerry states plus I'd say Ohio, & maybe Arkansas.

[Notre Dame rules!]

why Arkansas?  outside of Little Rock and the Delta, where is Hillary going to run strong?  I think that Jeb could win AR easily.

[opebo]

Bush family arrogance makes Jeb a likely candidate, as well as his acceptability to the religious. 
Jeb/Allen vs. Hillary/Richardson

NV, CO, OH, and IA could go either way.

[Reaganfan]

Bush: 321
Clinton: 217

[Kevin]

clintion would never carry arkansas because people hate her there

[MODU]

Jeb in 2012 might be a possibility, but I really don't think he wants the job.  He has stated that he enjoys being Governor and has no aspirations for a national office.  Now, that can change in 7 years, but I don't think it will.

[The Vorlon]

Just as a "thought experiment" let's pretend Jeb's last Name was "Smith" and not "Bush"

Here are Jeb "Smith's" Political Assets:

1) Very smart and articulate
2) Home state advantage in the Vital State of Florida
(If Florida is "off the table" the electoral math for the Dems gets real hard)
3) Two term Governor re-electred in a (sort of almost) landslide (57/43)
4) Fully acceptable to the Religious wing of the party
5) Huge name recognition
6) Access to vast, essentially unlimited, fundraising capacity
7) Vast and skilled political operatives and staff available as needed.
Reliable and rock solid access to the GOP levers of power.

Remember - The Bush who was <<supposed>> to Run in 200 was Jeb.

Both George and Jeb ran for Governor in 1994 - Jeb lost in Florida to Lawton Childs by just a few thousand votes - had he won in 1994 it is very likely Jeb not George would have run in 2000.

Jeb is a ton smarted than George, vastly more articulate, and a damn good campaigner and speaker.

Three years is about 6 lifetimes in politics. 

If it's fall of 2007 and Iraq is peaceful, the new oil fields in Iraq have driven the price of oil down to $18 a barrel, the economy is in good shape and GWBush has a 60% approval rating, Jeb looks like one heck of a strong candidate.

Remember, in 1988 if there was a way to have Given Reagan a 3rd term, I am sure the Gipper would have won rather easily.  Reagen couldn't run so we elected GHWBush... a pale imitation at best ..

If the people want to elect GWB for a thurd term and can't... how much closer can you get than his (smarter) brother...?

I agree that if GWB is politically in the tank Jeb's chances are not great, but again three years is a very, very long time.

"Thought Experiment" #2

Set the "way back" machine to November of 1994.....

=> Newt Gingrich has just made the most dramatic House gains in a century
=> The GOP controls the House for the first time in 40 years.
=> Not a single GOP incumbant was defeated...
=> A GOP tidal wave has smashed the Democratic party and massively repudiated the Clinton Administration...

Bill Clinton is clearly politically dead.... he is lame duck almost certain to be crushed in 1996 by whoever the GOP runs...

.... right ......

[AuH2O]

Also Jeb is fluent in Spanish and even is married to a hispanic woman.

Against a Clinton, Jeb would win. Against a weak Democrat, he would win. But against a strong non-Hillary? I'd be worried.

[zorkpolitics]

Also Jeb is fluent in Spanish and even is married to a hispanic woman.

Against a Clinton, Jeb would win. Against a weak Democrat, he would win. But against a strong non-Hillary? I'd be worried.

Luckily, there are no strong, non-Hillary Democrats to worry about.

[Alcon]

Also Jeb is fluent in Spanish and even is married to a hispanic woman.

Against a Clinton, Jeb would win. Against a weak Democrat, he would win. But against a strong non-Hillary? I'd be worried.

Luckily, there are no strong, non-Hillary Democrats to worry about.

Bayh, Richardson, Warner...we don't have a bad field at all.

[Beet]

Might as well declare a Monarchy.

Seriously-- I'd rather be a declared monarchy than a monarchy pretending to be a democracy.

[A18]

Electing people from the same family does not make the country a monarchy.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Bayh, Richardson, Warner...we don't have a bad field at all.

I agree, Alcon.  I think both parties have several good candidates that could run and be legitimate contenders and put up a fight in 2008.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yuck

[Beet]

Electing people from the same family does not make the country a monarchy.

On the contrary, electing sons, wives, brothers ad. perpetua is just as bad as electing FDR to four terms, and requires the same solution, a constitutional amendment.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Someone else on this forum in another thread said that Bush 41 would rather see Jeb run in 2012 or 2016, but not in 2008.  Interesting why that is.  Of course, if Jeb runs in 2012 or 2016, his father would be 88 or 92 in the respective years.  One has to wonder if Bush 41 will be alive long enough to see his son run and start his administration, if he does.  Heck, Bush 43 would be 66 and 70 in those years.  Jeb himself would be in his 60s, so already just a little older than Kerry.  Having said that, 2020 would be too late for Jeb to run.

How old is Jeb's son, George P Bush?

[Adam Griffin]

Not old at all. I believe he's 29, which means he could run as early as 2012. Not gonna happen, however; they're going to save him until the hispanic population percentage is higher.

[J. J.]

Electing people from the same family does not make the country a monarchy.

On the contrary, electing sons, wives, brothers ad. perpetua is just as bad as electing FDR to four terms, and requires the same solution, a constitutional amendment.

You mean like Bobby and Ted Kennedy?

Looking at that analogy, the Kennedys, this is not unknown.  RFK very probably would have been elected in 1968, had he not been assassinated.  In a 20 year period, the Kennedy family produced 3 candidates for the presidency.

While I do not expect Jeb to run in 2008, it is possible that there could be 3 Bushes in 20 years.

[MODU]

Electing people from the same family does not make the country a monarchy.

On the contrary, electing sons, wives, brothers ad. perpetua is just as bad as electing FDR to four terms, and requires the same solution, a constitutional amendment.

So Hillary is off the table then, right?    Or is this a case of "You can't have family blood in office, but I can?"  And I guess the Adams and the Rooseveltes should have been punished too.  hehehe

If people from the same family are elected to office, it means that either a) the people really like the person/family, or b) the voters haven't done their homework.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Also Jeb is fluent in Spanish and even is married to a hispanic woman.

Against a Clinton, Jeb would win. Against a weak Democrat, he would win. But against a strong non-Hillary? I'd be worried.

Luckily, there are no strong, non-Hillary Democrats to worry about.

Bayh, Richardson, Warner...we don't have a bad field at all.

Bayh could win, but won't be nominated. He his too way conservative for liberals of Democratic Party. They will probably pick someone like Gore or Dean.

Who would be the best choice for Bayh's VP? Warner would be too conservative. Bay needs some liberal to balancing his own conservativism and keeping the party united. How about Dayton of Minnesota?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Much as I liked Dayton as my senator, his political career is over. He is not running for reelection.

[Democratic Hawk]

Also Jeb is fluent in Spanish and even is married to a hispanic woman.

Against a Clinton, Jeb would win. Against a weak Democrat, he would win. But against a strong non-Hillary? I'd be worried.

Luckily, there are no strong, non-Hillary Democrats to worry about.

Bayh, Richardson, Warner...we don't have a bad field at all.

Bayh could win, but won't be nominated. He his too way conservative for liberals of Democratic Party. They will probably pick someone like Gore or Dean.

Who would be the best choice for Bayh's VP? Warner would be too conservative. Bay needs some liberal to balancing his own conservativism and keeping the party united. How about Dayton of Minnesota?

If moderate Democratic voters can rally around Bayh in the primaries then he would stand a very good chance of winning the nomination (better still, if he were the only moderate in the field). However, Democratic activists tend to be primarily liberal and, I believe, those folks turn out in force during the primaries. I'm hoping that come 2008, primary voters will think "electability" (I've talked at length previously about how demographics favour Bayh above most other Democrats), then the party will select a candidate who can actually win, instead of concerning themselves with 'litmus tests' on wedge issues. Democrats need to look at the wider picture or the GOP wins again (unless they totally mess up, that is)

I've been advocating a Bayh/Warner ticket (two guys I deem as electable red state Democrats); however, Bayh, as you suggest, may need to select a liberal running mate to put a bit of balance on the ticket - and with the right liberal, the Democrats could have a moderate(P)/liberal (VP)winning combination

One can only hope, and pray, for the best come 2008

Getting to the point, however, I've no enthusiasm for another Bush in the White House, though Jeb may be, somewhat, less mediocre on the domestic front than pa and bro. Only time will tell .... should Jeb run and win?

Dave

[Beet]

Electing people from the same family does not make the country a monarchy.

On the contrary, electing sons, wives, brothers ad. perpetua is just as bad as electing FDR to four terms, and requires the same solution, a constitutional amendment.

So Hillary is off the table then, right?    Or is this a case of "You can't have family blood in office, but I can?"  And I guess the Adams and the Rooseveltes should have been punished too.  hehehe

If people from the same family are elected to office, it means that either a) the people really like the person/family, or b) the voters haven't done their homework.

No, the Adams shouldn't be "punished", I'm talking about a constitutional amendment, not ex post facto law, which is not only  unconstitutional itself but also entirely impossible and stupid. And no, I do not support Hillary.

And yes, it would apply equally to those of all parties, Republicans and Democrats, but it would not apply to any immediate relatives of those who served as president prior to the passage of the amendment; just as 22nd amendment did not apply to Truman.

[Lincoln Republican]

Jeb would make a great President, but he's not running in 2008.

He's a gifted leader, he's smart, he's charismatic.

Jeb Bush          331
Hillary Clinton   207