Just as a "thought experiment" let's pretend Jeb's last Name was "Smith" and not "Bush"
Here are Jeb "Smith's" Political Assets:
1) Very smart and articulate
2) Home state advantage in the Vital State of Florida
(If Florida is "off the table" the electoral math for the Dems gets real hard)
3) Two term Governor re-electred in a (sort of almost) landslide (57/43)
4) Fully acceptable to the Religious wing of the party
5) Huge name recognition
6) Access to vast, essentially unlimited, fundraising capacity
7) Vast and skilled political operatives and staff available as needed.
Reliable and rock solid access to the GOP levers of power.
Remember - The Bush who was <<supposed>> to Run in 200 was Jeb.
Both George and Jeb ran for Governor in 1994 - Jeb lost in Florida to Lawton Childs by just a few thousand votes - had he won in 1994 it is very likely Jeb not George would have run in 2000.
Jeb is a ton smarted than George, vastly more articulate, and a damn good campaigner and speaker.
Three years is about 6 lifetimes in politics.
If it's fall of 2007 and Iraq is peaceful, the new oil fields in Iraq have driven the price of oil down to $18 a barrel, the economy is in good shape and GWBush has a 60% approval rating, Jeb looks like one heck of a strong candidate.
Remember, in 1988 if there was a way to have Given Reagan a 3rd term, I am sure the Gipper would have won rather easily. Reagen couldn't run so we elected GHWBush... a pale imitation at best ..
If the people want to elect GWB for a thurd term and can't... how much closer can you get than his (smarter) brother...?
I agree that if GWB is politically in the tank Jeb's chances are not great, but again three years is a very, very long time.
"Thought Experiment" #2
Set the "way back" machine to November of 1994.....
=> Newt Gingrich has just made the most dramatic House gains in a century
=> The GOP controls the House for the first time in 40 years.
=> Not a single GOP incumbant was defeated...
=> A GOP tidal wave has smashed the Democratic party and massively repudiated the Clinton Administration...
Bill Clinton is clearly politically dead.... he is lame duck almost certain to be crushed in 1996 by whoever the GOP runs...
.... right ......
