Why does Trump do better with evangelicals in the South than in the Midwest?

[King of Kensington]

Caucuses vs. primaries?  A class/educational difference?  Baptist vs. fundie Germans and Dutch?  The salience of race?

[CapoteMonster]

The south in general is more reactionary so that carries over to evangelical voters.

[HAnnA MArin County]

If you still consider Missouri Midwest (and I realize this is anecdotal evidence), but many of the "evangelicals" I've seen posting on Facebook and spoken with in person are for Cruz because they believe he's more "sincere" in his "Christianity." They also believe that Trump is, as Marco Rubio put it, a con artist whose sole purpose in running is to get Hillary elected (can't tell you how many times I've seen "a vote for DJT is a vote for HRC"). They really can't get over his flip-flop on abortion and they believe that since he's from New York City, he must be pro-marriage equality even though he's (falsely, in their opinion) said that he supports "traditional marriage," paralleling Cruz's comments about Trump's "New York values."

My grandmother, who is a true evangelical Christian, doesn't like any of the candidates but really does not like Trump. I asked her what she thought about his comments about Mexicans being rapists and bringing drugs here and wanting to build a wall and deport, and she said that that was not a very Christian thing to say, "they are people, too" and how Jesus called on us to love EVERYONE. My cousin (her granddaughter) is married to a Hispanic/Latino person, so obviously they/we are not very fond of him.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Style, style, style. The south is much more similar to the northeast in tone than it is to the Midwest.

[Ljube]

Style, style, style. The south is much more similar to the northeast in tone than it is to the Midwest.

Exactly. I believe that most TRUMP haters here actually have no problem with his policies and only hate TRUMP because of his style.

[King of Kensington]

The south in general is more reactionary so that carries over to evangelical voters.

But Cruz is the more right-wing candidate.

[morgieb]

I suspect that Southern ones are poorer, which might have an effect. Also could they be more receptive to race-baiting?

[Mr. Morden]

The Civis Analytics polling over the past six months breaks down Trump support by Congressional district (yes, huge MoE, but it gives a rough idea), and there's overlap between where Trump is strongest in GOP primary support and where there's a disproportionately high share of "racially charged internet searches":



http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html

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[Thunderbird is the word]

Prosperity gospel is bigger in the south and Trump' style is similar to that of a televangelist wheras northern evangelicals are probably more influenced by the Yankee Puritan tradition and see Trump as a chintzy blowhard.

[Erc]

Obvious answer is just straight-up racism, as Mr. Morden suggested.

[TJ in Oregon]

One theory I've heard is that in the south virtually everyone who believes in the God of Christianity identifies as an evangelical whether they go to church or not, whereas in the Midwest evangelical is less universal of a label so the people ascribing to it are more attached. One characteristic of Trump voters practically everywhere is that they are people disconnected with institutions (which is part of why they're angry).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Midwestern evangelicals are more educated and white-collar.

Southern evangelicals are mostly Baptist, while Midwestern evangelicals are more Lutheran. They're really not that similar. Head in to a Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod parish and you'll find a lot more businesspeople, wealthy farmers who own land, insurance agents, etc. (it's almost like going to a Catholic church) than union laborers or farmers who don't own land. Typically a lot of old money. A Southern Baptist church probably has the opposite demographic.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's bizarre at this point.  Trump's coalition has this weird overlap with Carter's 1976 coalition, even though Carter was exactly the opposite personality.

That's hilarious! My favorite President! And my favorite candidate! Intetesting.

[MK]

The Civis Analytics polling over the past six months breaks down Trump support by Congressional district (yes, huge MoE, but it gives a rough idea), and there's overlap between where Trump is strongest in GOP primary support and where there's a disproportionately high share of "racially charged internet searches:



http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html

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Wow, so far that CD map of Trump support has been very accurate in predicting the primaries, even at a granular level within states.  The only major error so far is OK.  It called the anomalously high Trump support in NV, the close call with Cruz in AR compared to the rest of the South, and the close call with Kasich in VT compared to the rest of New England.  If this continues to hold for Saturday, Trump has LA and KY locked up and is moderately favored in ME, but he has no hope in KS.

If this map is accurate  you pretty much have Trump winning LA, MI, KY, Fl, and toss up in ohio.   

Rubios only strength is in Dade county area.   those PA shades kinda puts some truth behind the ideal Trump could steal that state in a GE.

[King of Kensington]

Income below $50,000

Missouri Synod  43%
Southern Baptist  54%

Income $100,000+

Missouri Synod  22%
Southern Baptist  16%

High school or less

Missouri Synod  35%
Southern Baptist  46%

College degree

Missouri Synod  32%
Southern Baptist  19%

[eric82oslo]

Because southerners are racists and midwesterners are not.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Because southerners are racists and midwesterners are not.

lol

[All Along The Watchtower]

One theory I've heard is that in the south virtually everyone who believes in the God of Christianity identifies as an evangelical whether they go to church or not, whereas in the Midwest evangelical is less universal of a label so the people ascribing to it are more attached. One characteristic of Trump voters practically everywhere is that they are people disconnected with institutions (which is part of why they're angry).

That sounds intriguing. Where'd you hear that?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Income below $50,000

Missouri Synod  43%
Southern Baptist  54%

Income $100,000+

Missouri Synod  22%
Southern Baptist  16%

High school or less

Missouri Synod  35%
Southern Baptist  46%

College degree

Missouri Synod  32%
Southern Baptist  19%

This summarizes my point well. Note that these are (to my knowledge, at least) the largest evangelical church bodies in the Midwest and South, respectively.

[eric82oslo]

Because southerners are racists and midwesterners are not.

lol Trump is dominating everywhere. Are NH and MA now racist states, too? How will you react when TRUMP wins the presidency?

I could also add that Midwesterners in Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota with more are to a large part of Nordic ancestry (Norwegians, Swedes, Finnish). Happy now? They're also to a large degree Lutherans. It's not by no coincidence that Obama was so popular with whites in the upper Midwest, while almost received no votes from Democratic whites in the south.

[Young Conservative]

Midwestern evangelicals are more educated and white-collar.

Southern evangelicals are mostly Baptist, while Midwestern evangelicals are more Lutheran. They're really not that similar. Head in to a Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod parish and you'll find a lot more businesspeople, wealthy farmers who own land, insurance agents, etc. (it's almost like going to a Catholic church) than union laborers or farmers who don't own land. Typically a lot of old money. A Southern Baptist church probably has the opposite demographic.

Im southern baptist, southern, educated... and I strongly oppose Trump as all evangelicals should. He doesn't represent our values

[Fuzzy Bear]

One theory I've heard is that in the south virtually everyone who believes in the God of Christianity identifies as an evangelical whether they go to church or not, whereas in the Midwest evangelical is less universal of a label so the people ascribing to it are more attached. One characteristic of Trump voters practically everywhere is that they are people disconnected with institutions (which is part of why they're angry).

This is basically it.  The vast majority of Southern Protestants can be described as Evangelical.  The Business Republican in the South is an Evangelical.  The working class Republican in the South is an Evangelical.  Everyone's an Evangelical.  That's not true in blue states like Minnesota. 

The other reason is that Evangelicals, especially Southern White Evangelicals, are HIGHLY PATRIOTIC.  Trump's "Make America Great Again" theme really resonates with them; they see America in decline and are looking for some kind of new Ronald Reagan type to "renew America".  I've said this before, but Trump's theme is a theme that makes the rounds of American politics periodically, and this is a time for it.