Is this a viable path to the nomination for Sanders?
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  Is this a viable path to the nomination for Sanders?
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Author Topic: Is this a viable path to the nomination for Sanders?  (Read 2130 times)
Zache
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« on: March 04, 2016, 11:00:48 AM »

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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2016, 11:15:59 AM »

Bernie would have to see one heck of a turnaround among blacks to get 55% in NC and 60% in OH, not to mention him getting 55% in the state Hillary represented in the Senate for eight years.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2016, 11:17:53 AM »

The picture doesn't load. Bad omen for Bernie.
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emailking
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2016, 11:29:34 AM »

The picture doesn't load. Bad omen for Bernie.

Go here: imgur.com/nobnxYs.jpg
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2016, 11:30:55 AM »

Here's a map for those who can't see it:

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2016, 11:33:59 AM »

FWIW, here is the map I predict if every state is competitive to the end.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2016, 11:34:52 AM »

No.
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cxs018
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2016, 11:44:38 AM »

The only viable path left is this:

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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2016, 11:53:36 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2016, 12:30:01 PM by Mehmentum »

I couldn't see the picture, but if you quote the OP, you can see the link which will lead you to the picture.

So this map has Sanders doing better in Mississippi than in any of the Southern Super Tuesday states.  If anything, Mississippi will be his worst state in the country.  Louisiana is also too favorable for him on this map.  How on earth is Sanders supposed to win North Carolina by 10 points?

This map must be dependent on Sanders somehow doing a lot better with African Americans.  Sure, if he can improve his numbers by that much, he could do this.  But considering how hard he campaigned for SC to get nothing in return, this is a fantasy.

Sanders' numbers in CA, AZ, and NM make it seem like that mapmaker is assuming Sanders wins Hispanics.  Clinton overwhelmingly won Hispanics in Texas, so I don't see how you can take that for granted.  Also, Arizona is a very old state.  There is no way Sanders gets 60% of the vote there.  If anything, Clinton will be getting 60% of the vote in Arizona.

The numbers on the West Coast are pure fantasy.  Sure, I can see Sanders winning Washington and Oregon by large margins, but he's not winning thee f-ing quarters of the vote there!

New York, remember this is Clinton's home state, I don't see how she loses it, and by double digits nonetheless!

West Virginia, I know there's a poll showing Sanders up big, but the numbers in Tennessee and Western Virginia on Super Tuesday throw some doubt onto this.  Also, why would Sanders lose Kentucky, a caucus, but win 75% of the vote in West Virginia.  This does not make sense.

It also relies on him winning a bunch of the territorial caucuses, which seems far fetched after Clinton won American Samoa by 43 points.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2016, 12:49:36 PM »

Sanders doesn't actually need that many pledged delegates to win. There are 4051 pledged delegates, with a majority of those being 2026. A tied race among pledged delegates would still go to Clinton, but a 53-47 race would be hard for Superdelegates to go against. That puts Sanders' goal at 2147 pledged delegates (which doesn't factor in his current Superdelegates).
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Cory
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2016, 01:18:53 PM »

No, not really.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2016, 01:23:54 PM »

Nope. He really ought to just give his concession speech and move on.
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madelka
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2016, 01:39:06 PM »

There is no viable path to the nomination for Sanders.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2016, 01:44:51 PM »

FWIW, here is the map I predict if every state is competitive to the end.



This map looks more than reasonable, though I could see Sanders pulling off wins in Indiana or Rhode Island on a good day. 
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Shadows
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2016, 01:55:39 PM »

American Samoa has 200 or 250 odd votes, any1 making a judgement concerning that voting, is incredibly stupid.

Sanders can win, New York is a long distance away, Sanders can bring a head of steam by then.

He has to pull a close result in NC, Florida & win Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, etc.

And he has to win PA & CA by 15% odd points IMO.

He does have a path - But he can't loose any state big after Louisiana & Mississippi & has to get a string of 60% vote wins.

And any1 saying Hillary won Texas vote & making a blanket assumption is weird. Sanders won the Hispanic vote in Nevada, he won the Black vote in Minnesota comfortably. So these tend to be skewed to the winners.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2016, 02:12:52 PM »

FWIW, here is the map I predict if every state is competitive to the end.



This map looks more than reasonable, though I could see Sanders pulling off wins in Indiana or Rhode Island on a good day. 

Yes, Indiana was the most difficult state to choose. If we go that far we might see a repetition of the 2008 nailbiter.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2016, 02:33:41 PM »

Yeah, Sanders should do well in the west, that was Obama country last time. Outside of WV and MAYBE Kentucky, I don't see how Sanders can win another southern state. And I agree with Indiana possibly being a nailbiter.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2016, 02:43:57 PM »

I figure there's about a 5% that he can still get the nomination. I figure there's at least a 10% chance that Hillary will be indicted between now and June, in which case he could win outright. However, what more likely then happens at the convention is that a large block of superdelegates votes for either Biden or Warren on the first ballot, who then goes on to win on the 2nd.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2016, 03:34:22 PM »

No
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2016, 03:42:09 PM »

The final nail in the coffin for Sanders was the Latino vote in TX.  Obviously Hillary has the black vote, and Bernie and her seem to trade off with the white vote depending on the state. So if it were true (as the exit poll from Nevada indicated) Sanders was winning with Latinos, then he had a shot. But actual precinct data put into doubt that NV exit poll and now with TX, it was clear that Sanders isn't winning with Latinos, which puts NM, AZ, FL and CA out of reach too and that is pretty much the ballgame, even if he could somehow pull off some wins in the rust belt.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2016, 03:43:41 PM »

I would love to see some polling in Missouri.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2016, 03:47:23 PM »

He's not winning North Carolina or New York, and he would really have to turn things around to win California by June. Besides, even with that map, he still won't have enough delegates due to his devastating loses in big states like Georgia, Texas, and (likely) Florida. It's kind of a done deal, sadly.
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2016, 05:39:28 PM »

The final nail in the coffin for Sanders was the Latino vote in TX.  Obviously Hillary has the black vote, and Bernie and her seem to trade off with the white vote depending on the state. So if it were true (as the exit poll from Nevada indicated) Sanders was winning with Latinos, then he had a shot. But actual precinct data put into doubt that NV exit poll and now with TX, it was clear that Sanders isn't winning with Latinos, which puts NM, AZ, FL and CA out of reach too and that is pretty much the ballgame, even if he could somehow pull off some wins in the rust belt.

He won Nevada Hispanics. People have said he's won Colorado Hispanics. I think he didn't do too badly with Massachusetts minorities.
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2016, 05:44:29 PM »

I don't think he has any viable paths to the nomination assuming that things stay where they are now, and there isn't some game-changing event that happens very soon.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2016, 05:47:31 PM »

The final nail in the coffin for Sanders was the Latino vote in TX.  Obviously Hillary has the black vote, and Bernie and her seem to trade off with the white vote depending on the state. So if it were true (as the exit poll from Nevada indicated) Sanders was winning with Latinos, then he had a shot. But actual precinct data put into doubt that NV exit poll and now with TX, it was clear that Sanders isn't winning with Latinos, which puts NM, AZ, FL and CA out of reach too and that is pretty much the ballgame, even if he could somehow pull off some wins in the rust belt.

He won Nevada Hispanics.

HE DIDN'T! QUIT SAYING IT.
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