Is this a viable path to the nomination for Sanders? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 03:48:19 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Is this a viable path to the nomination for Sanders? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Is this a viable path to the nomination for Sanders?  (Read 2175 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: March 04, 2016, 05:39:28 PM »

The final nail in the coffin for Sanders was the Latino vote in TX.  Obviously Hillary has the black vote, and Bernie and her seem to trade off with the white vote depending on the state. So if it were true (as the exit poll from Nevada indicated) Sanders was winning with Latinos, then he had a shot. But actual precinct data put into doubt that NV exit poll and now with TX, it was clear that Sanders isn't winning with Latinos, which puts NM, AZ, FL and CA out of reach too and that is pretty much the ballgame, even if he could somehow pull off some wins in the rust belt.

He won Nevada Hispanics. People have said he's won Colorado Hispanics. I think he didn't do too badly with Massachusetts minorities.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2016, 05:50:04 PM »

Is that assuming the superdelegates stay with Hillary?
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2016, 05:52:19 PM »

The final nail in the coffin for Sanders was the Latino vote in TX.  Obviously Hillary has the black vote, and Bernie and her seem to trade off with the white vote depending on the state. So if it were true (as the exit poll from Nevada indicated) Sanders was winning with Latinos, then he had a shot. But actual precinct data put into doubt that NV exit poll and now with TX, it was clear that Sanders isn't winning with Latinos, which puts NM, AZ, FL and CA out of reach too and that is pretty much the ballgame, even if he could somehow pull off some wins in the rust belt.

He won Nevada Hispanics.

HE DIDN'T! QUIT SAYING IT.

It wasn't just the exit poll. The William C. Velasquez Institute found similarly.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2016, 06:15:44 PM »

The final nail in the coffin for Sanders was the Latino vote in TX.  Obviously Hillary has the black vote, and Bernie and her seem to trade off with the white vote depending on the state. So if it were true (as the exit poll from Nevada indicated) Sanders was winning with Latinos, then he had a shot. But actual precinct data put into doubt that NV exit poll and now with TX, it was clear that Sanders isn't winning with Latinos, which puts NM, AZ, FL and CA out of reach too and that is pretty much the ballgame, even if he could somehow pull off some wins in the rust belt.

He won Nevada Hispanics. People have said he's won Colorado Hispanics. I think he didn't do too badly with Massachusetts minorities.

Data on Nevada is ambiguous at best and been called into question. THere is no data from CO, so that is unknown. As for MA, again there is no Latino breakout, but he lost non-whites 61/59 and Latinos are the largest portion of non-whites in MA.  And when you look at southern states where they breakout non-whites and blacks, the numbers are about the sames, meaning that Latinos, Asians and Other are not helping Sanders to offset losses with blacks. The one state where that isn't true is OK, and so the assumption is that he did well with the large native American population.

But again, there is only one state with unambiguous data on Latinos and that is TX, where he got crushed. And that is also a primary, not a caucus.  Recent polling also shows Sanders doing poorly in NM, which has a good number or liberal whites, so again if he were winning with Latinos he should be ahead.  Same is true for polling in FL.

This gets to my original point, if Sanders was winning Latinos, then he had a shot. So far, there is no evidence that is going to happen.

The exit polls and some institute showed he won Nevada Hispanics. People have mentioned evidence that he won Colorado Hispanics, but I haven't looked too closely at that. For what it's worth, he did win Oklahoma Native Americans.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2016, 10:38:10 PM »

For what it's worth, he did win Oklahoma Native Americans.

Source? I can't find any info on Native Americans from the exit polls.

He won non white and non blacks 55-39, and they were mostly Native Americans, so he presumably won them. Also he did quite well in the eastern counties that are the highest percent Native American, of them being 44% Native American.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 14 queries.