Predict the 2016 Senatorial result

[Bismarck]

Yup. Clearly Grassley will lose because of a Supreme Court vacancy. Are you freaking serious? The man has lost one county one time in all of his reelection efforts. Cmon now folks. Even if it gets closer than his other races why would he lose? Patty Judge isn't some superstar candidate. The only candidate who could give Grassley a run for his money would be Vilsack. Safe R unless Grassley is found guilty of a crime or dies or something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He knows he has five blue state GOPers up for reelection and Johnson and Kirk will definitely lose if SCOTUS nomineebisnt given a hearing. The same GOPers that cried foul when Dems didnt fill vacancies during Bush W final 2 yrs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Before the Scalia vacancy GOP were likely to hold on for a 52-48 majority, now Dems have 6 seats to target, OH, WI, IL, Pa, FL and NH

[Santander]

Dems will have a tough time getting even 50 seats and any more is highly unlikely. The elections will affect the Supreme Court confirmation process, not the other way around. Most of the vulnerable GOP Senators got elected as obstructionists - they have no incentive to do otherwise. Only Kirk would be hurt if he was seen as an obstructionist. If Trump is the nominee, enough Senators could break to give Obama his Supreme Court appointee anyway, though. Grassley isn't going anywhere.

A Dem hold in NV and gains in WI, IL, FL and NH is the most likely way to get to 50-50, but most of those will be very tough campaigns. 52-48 seems more likely to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KIRK, Johnson, Ayotte are gone. If its a neutral year Toomey is gone. If its a wave a Dems pick up more 11 House Seats, Dems will defeat Grassley and a solid majority

[pbrower2a]

John McCain, R-AZ, PPP: 35-52. At risk of defeat in the primary.

Quinnipiac, Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania

(because the incumbent Senator from Florida is not running for re-election I do not show him)
OH, Portman 44-29 PA Toomey 49-34.

But -- people are much less likely to vote for Toomey should he obstruct the appointment of a Supreme Court justice so that Donald Trump has a chance to nominate hi,.


My take (and rationale):

Approval polls only.


Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.

Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       6     0
40-44    3    0
45-49   2     2
50-54    3      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      3
retire    3      3  
indict     0      1
oth off  1      0
no poll  6      1


Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:

Sure R:

Alabama
Idaho
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely R:
Alaska
Iowa (from Sure R)
Kansas


Edge R:
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Pennsylvania (from Edge D)


Tossups
Arizona (from Edge R)
Georgia (from Edge R)
Nevada
Ohio


All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.

Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
Missouri* (from toss-up)
New Hampshire*
North Carolina* (from toss-up)


Likely D:
Oregon
Washington


Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*


*flip (so far all R to D)

New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.