2016: William McKinley (R) vs. William Jennings Bryan (D)

[Prince of Salem]

Hello everyone!

So just for the sake of fun and number calculation, I'm doing this hypothetical match-up between the two top presidential candidates from 1896 and 1900 in a 2016 context. For the calculation of the results, I've used this tool. It's not what I'd call a very elaborated timeline, it's just some playing with the numbers that I'm doing for fun, and I hope  you enjoy it too.

The following would be the candidates (for this TL) on the issues of today.

Economy:

McKinley and Bryan would play similar roles to those which they played originally, McKinley being the mainstream center-right business Republican and Bryan being the populist, social justice Democrat. It'd look (at least on economic issues) like a Romney vs. Sanders election.

Social issues:

McKinley, again, would be a mainline center-right Republican here. But with Bryan, things will be a little more complicated. He'll take a moderate stance on most social issues, trying to combine religious positions with SJW stances. This will help him build a seemingly unlikely coalition between his old rural populist support and the more modern young white liberal group. However, he'll be severely damaged by his stances on Affirmative Action, when he states that "blacks should be allowed to prosper without special help". McKinley will attack him heavily on this, so we'll see how this affects the election.

Foreign policy:

Not much to say here. The hawk-dove divide was the same back then as it is today, and that won't change too much.

Let's start!

[Prince of Salem]

Oh, I forgot to say this will be an Election Night timeline. Just for you to know

[Prince of Salem]

07:00 PM EST

MCKINLEY WINS GEORGIA. MCKINLEY WINS SOUTH CAROLINA. BRYAN WINS VERMONT. NO PROJECTIONS IN INDIANA, KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA.

MCKINLEY: 25
BRYAN: 3

As the 7 o'clock projections come in, we can notice that the Deep South, which was solid for Bryan when he ran IRL, is now solid for McKinley, as the region is nowadays a Republican stronghold. What is more, polls show the Republican candidate trouncing Bryan by 30 points in South Carolina and by 40 points in Georgia. How does this happen? Well, as I mentioned before, Bryan makes some statements that will upset African American voters, a key demographic in the South. And even after making some inroads with white farmers, this will not be enough to prevent him from being destroyed in the more conservative South.

On the other hand, Vermont, on of the biggest (in terms of margin) McKinley states back in the day, now goes to Bryan by nearly 50 points. 50 POINTS! How did this happen? As I said before, Bryan still attracts white liberals with his social justice rethoric. This, plus his moderate religious appeal and his pro-farm positions (Vermont is one of the most rural states), helps him attract many more moderate voters too, giving him a huge advantage over McKinley in modern Vermont.

With McKinley making the Solid South even more solid in his favor and Bryan's big numbers in the Northeast, it's obvious how a lot of things have changed in a century. Yet we are still to see how the numbers will play out in other parts of the country, as 3 states where all polls are now closed remain not projected.

[Higgs]

Interesting, continue

[Türkisblau]

Social issues:

McKinley, again, would be a mainline center-right Republican here. But with Bryan, things will be a little more complicated. He'll take a moderate stance on most social issues, trying to combine religious positions with SJW stances. This will help him build a seemingly unlikely coalition between his old rural populist support and the more modern young white liberal group. However, he'll be severely damaged by his stances on Affirmative Action, when he states that "blacks should be allowed to prosper without special help". McKinley will attack him heavily on this, so we'll see how this affects the election.

Everything about this is weird and wrong.

[Prince of Salem]

07:20 PM EST

MCKINLEY WINS KENTUCKY. MCKINLEY WINS VIRGINIA.

MCKINLEY: 46
BRYAN: 3

When the 7 o'clock poll closings happened, it was still not fully certain where would the vote in Kentucky and Virginia go. After all, William Jennings Bryan was still hoping to sweep Eastern Kentucky and bring in many voters from the usually Republican area of Rural Virginia. And in fact, he did both of these. But it just wasn't enough.

William McKinley was able to pull out a win in both of these states by bringing the black vote to his column, pulling out important wins in Lexington, KY and Southeast Virginia, making this enough to call the race in this two states only a few minutes after the polls had closed.

[Prince of Salem]

Social issues:

McKinley, again, would be a mainline center-right Republican here. But with Bryan, things will be a little more complicated. He'll take a moderate stance on most social issues, trying to combine religious positions with SJW stances. This will help him build a seemingly unlikely coalition between his old rural populist support and the more modern young white liberal group. However, he'll be severely damaged by his stances on Affirmative Action, when he states that "blacks should be allowed to prosper without special help". McKinley will attack him heavily on this, so we'll see how this affects the election.

Everything about this is weird and wrong.

Yeah, I know. Nothing else came to my mind. As I said, I did it just for the sake of argument.

[Prince of Salem]

Sidenote: No ME and NE splits here.

[Prince of Salem]

07:30 PM EST

MCKINLEY WINS NORTH CAROLINA. NO PROJECTIONS IN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

MCKINLEY: 61
BRYAN: 3

With 3 states closing at 7:30, only North Carolina is projected, doing nothing but confirming McKinley's big lead in the South. Polls suggest a lead for him of more than 20 points over Bryan in the Tar Heel State.

Ohio is William McKinley's home state. While it is a battleground state most of the time, a few people were still expecting an early call for the homeboy in the middle of an unusual race. Well, it won't be now.

West Virginia seems to be a very special case. A Democratic state until the 90s, a Republican state more recently, this is the kind of state that Bryan was targeting to switch from the Republicans. It was not a part of his coalition IRL, but it has the kind of voters Bryan is looking for.

We wouldn't be able to call the election in any way with the current results, but we're not far from the major poll closings. Stand by!

[Prince of Salem]

08:00 PM EST

MCKINLEY WINS ALABAMA. BRYAN WINS MAINE. MCKINLEY WINS MARYLAND. BRYAN WINS MASSACHUSETTS. MCKINLEY WINS MISSISSIPPI. MCKINLEY WINS MISSOURI. BRYAN WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE. MCKINLEY WINS OKLAHOMA. BRYAN WINS RHODE ISLAND. MCKINLEY WINS TENNESSEE. NO PROJECTIONS IN CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, FLORIDA, ILLINOIS, NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA.

MCKINLEY: 114
BRYAN: 26

If you are William Jennings Bryan at this very moment, some people might think you are in big trouble. Maryland goes to McKinley!? Boy, this is it, you are done. And after all, this is 8 o'clock. Isn't it the time for the Democratic candidate to start picking up states to tie Republican's early advantage? Ok, media, call this thing for McKinley already.

Oh, but not so fast! This is a certainly unusual race. And according to Bryan and his supporters, they've still got the chance to pull out important votes for traditional Republican voters in the West. Some people think this is bananas. What will actually happen?

On a positive sidenote for Bryan, he's been awarded New Hampshire very early. That should good. Good enough? Who knows. But it's good.

[Clark Kent]

I would've expected New Hampshire to go strongly for McKinley.

Anyways, I'm following this with interest.

[bagelman]

I would've expected New Hampshire to go strongly for McKinley.

Anyways, I'm following this with interest.

New Hampshire voted heavily for TRUMP, and Trump is a strong speaker and populist like Bryan.

[Prince of Salem]

08:10 PM EST

MCKINLEY WINS DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.

MCKINLEY: 117
BRYAN: 26

Well, if one result would've shocked all pundits in a regular election to death, it would've been this one. Once the safest Democratic stronghold on every election (BOTH George McGovern and Walter Mondale won LANDSLIDES here), the District of Columbia has given its 3 electoral votes to Republican William McKinley this time. What does this tell us about the future of the Democratic Party with African American voters? Only time will tell.

On the other hand, as we said, the District of Columbia only awards 3 electoral votes to its winner. Could Bryan compensate it by winning rural western states?

[President Johnson]

Intersting! Go on

[Prince of Salem]

08:30 PM EST

MCKINLEY WINS ARKANSAS.

MCKINLEY: 123
BRYAN: 26

You're losing badly, Mr. Bryan.
You're far from the presidency.
You tell me of better times, Mr. Bryan.
But when will this good times be?

Given the current scenario, Arkansas seemed a safe call for McKinley anyway (Southern state, you know. Man, look at all that blue down south!). So no need to be desperate, Bryan fans The real question here is, what will happen West? I mean, what will happen next?