First state where Trump gets Majority?
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Author Topic: First state where Trump gets Majority?  (Read 2769 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: March 04, 2016, 04:55:36 PM »
He was close in Massachusetts, but so far hasn't got a majority of the votes in any state. What will be his first state to do so? Will Mississippi be it with Carson now out?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2016, 04:56:37 PM »
The State of Insanity.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2016, 05:22:58 PM »
I got a funny feeling when he walked into the room
And as I recall, it ended much too soon
Hypnotizing, mesmerizing me
He was everything I dreamed he be,
Sweet surrender, what a night! [June 2016]
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2016, 05:24:43 PM »
Well, if he ever clears the 50%-delegate threshold, he'll get a majority of the voters in the next reasonably pro-trump state after that. If that doesn't happen, I think he's exhausted his best opportunities already (MA, AL), but some chance does exist in Mississippi.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2016, 05:25:41 PM »
Mississippi or Rhode Island. Rhode Island is probably near 60% Trump.
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sportydude
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2016, 05:31:57 PM »

The nickname of Mississippi.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2016, 05:41:41 PM »
Btw, there is no historical precedent for going more than 10 states into primary season without any candidate breaking 50% of the vote.  We're in uncharted waters:

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2016/03/03/when-will-we-see-a-trump-majority/

Quote from: Vosem on March 04, 2016, 05:24:43 PM
Well, if he ever clears the 50%-delegate threshold, he'll get a majority of the voters in the next reasonably pro-trump state after that. If that doesn't happen, I think he's exhausted his best opportunities already (MA, AL), but some chance does exist in Mississippi.

Assuming at least one of his opponents stays in the race for the long haul, there's a good chance that he doesn't get a delegate majority until June 7th, when California and several other states vote.  And then there are no contests after that.  That's the end.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2016, 05:51:24 PM »
, which he'll win by a landslide
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Harry
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2016, 06:38:07 PM »
It will be Mississippi. A lot of the local officials who backed Romney in the 2012 primary (which was 33-31-31 S-G-R) are backing Trump this time.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2016, 10:45:53 PM »
Quote from: Damar on March 04, 2016, 06:38:07 PM
It will be Mississippi. A lot of the local officials who backed Romney in the 2012 primary (which was 33-31-31 S-G-R) are backing Trump this time.

But the support of Sessions only got him to 43% in Alabama.
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Donnie
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2016, 10:47:50 PM »
Mississippi.
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Holmes
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2016, 10:59:48 PM »
West Virginia.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2016, 11:54:01 PM »
Homestate of New York...
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bigedlb
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« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2016, 12:21:17 AM »
Two new gravis-OAN polls out this evening.  Could get majorities in Louisiana and Kentucky tomorrow.  Louisiana at 48, Kentucky at 50
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gespb19
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« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2016, 12:25:48 AM »
He'll be in the upper 40s in MS.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2016, 12:44:21 AM »
Quote from: bigedlb on March 05, 2016, 12:21:17 AM
Two new gravis-OAN polls out this evening.  Could get majorities in Louisiana and Kentucky tomorrow.  Louisiana at 48, Kentucky at 50
Huh
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Ljube
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« Reply #16 on: March 05, 2016, 02:21:06 AM »
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2016, 02:23:35 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on March 04, 2016, 05:25:41 PM
Mississippi or Rhode Island. Rhode Island is probably near 60% Trump.

Rhode Island Republicans are that crazy?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2016, 05:36:10 AM »
His home state of New York.
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pho
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2016, 07:26:29 AM »
Arizona votes on March 22, the first state after the March 15 batch of primaries where Trump will effectively finish Rubio/Cruz off.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2016, 02:59:36 PM »
Quote from: Neoliberal Corporatist Supporting Progressive Socialist on March 05, 2016, 02:23:35 AM
Quote from: Maxwell on March 04, 2016, 05:25:41 PM
Mississippi or Rhode Island. Rhode Island is probably near 60% Trump.

Rhode Island Republicans are that crazy?

Rhode Island Republicans are moderate and heavily Catholic, and we know that those demographics favor Trump overwhelmingly in the northeast.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2016, 03:02:55 PM »
Probably New York, although if Kasich and Rubio are still in, maybe just below. I think the race drastically changes after March 15 depending on who is victorious in their home states.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2016, 06:22:22 AM »
*bump*


Nope.

Quote from: pho on March 05, 2016, 07:26:29 AM
Arizona votes on March 22, the first state after the March 15 batch of primaries where Trump will effectively finish Rubio/Cruz off.

It wasn't Arizona either.

So now what?  New York?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2016, 06:33:52 AM »
Yeah, probably New York. His margins are a lot better now that there are only three candidates left (we won't see any more >30% states), so I'd say NY is his best bet. If not there, then probably one of the April 26 primaries or WV.
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dax00
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« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2016, 06:35:23 AM »
Trump stands no chance at getting a state majority before New York. I think he'll take NY handily, with over 2/3 of the popular vote
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