Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[Mr. Morden]

On the Republican side, we have a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky, and Maine today.

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Kansas: caucuses run from 11am-3pm ET
http://www.ksgop.org/#!caucus-locations/vopsn
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ks/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/kansas

Kentucky: caucuses run from 10am to 4pm local time (but since some of the state is in CT, this means the final caucuses end at 5pm ET)
http://rpk.org/caucus/
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/kentucky

Maine: caucuses begin at 8pm ET
http://mainegop.com/caucusbasics/
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/me/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/maine

Louisiana: primary polls close at 9pm ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/la/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/louisiana

I’m assuming that we’ll only have an exit poll for the primary in Louisiana, in which case the usual public service message applies:

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Where are those delegate counts coming from? AP says TRUMP 329, Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25

[Mr. Morden]

Where are those delegate counts coming from? AP says TRUMP 329, Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25

I got that picture from the Washington Post.  But it was made the day after Super Tuesday, so some of the results were still being finalized at that point, in all likelihood.  I like it more for the sketches, rather than for the accuracy of the numbers. 

[Mr. Morden]

Rain forecast for parts of Kentucky.  I guess Louisville is supposed to have showers in the late morning / early afternoon.  Unclear that there's going to be any particularly serious weather anywhere that'll dampen turnout:

[pho]

155 delegates will be awarded tonight, equal to Texas. Trump leads everywhere, should be a good night for him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

155 delegates will be awarded tonight, equal to Texas. Trump leads everywhere, should be a good night for him.

Cruz probably wins Kansas.

[Mr. Morden]

Dave Catanese surveys the lay of the land in all four states:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2016/03/04/saturday-caucuses-present-tougher-test-for-trump

The Kentucky GOP sounds disorganized, since they've never done caucuses before.

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Amusingly, they say that Rand Paul loathes Trump so much he's urging his people to turn out for Not Trump.

[pho]

155 delegates will be awarded tonight, equal to Texas. Trump leads everywhere, should be a good night for him.

Cruz probably wins Kansas.

It's a toss up. Trump up 6 in this poll
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/271834-poll-trump-holds-slim-lead-over-cruz-in-kansas

[Mr. Morden]

Polls are now open in Louisiana.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently Kentucky switched from a primary to a caucus this year. Why the hell would anyone do that?

[Landslide Lyndon]

155 delegates will be awarded tonight, equal to Texas. Trump leads everywhere, should be a good night for him.

Cruz probably wins Kansas.

It's a toss up. Trump up 6 in this poll
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/271834-poll-trump-holds-slim-lead-over-cruz-in-kansas

And we all know how accurate caucus polls are.

[MaxQue]

Apparently Kentucky switched from a primary to a caucus this year. Why the hell would anyone do that?

Rand Paul?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rain forecast for parts of Kentucky.  I guess Louisville is supposed to have showers in the late morning / early afternoon.  Unclear that there's going to be any particularly serious weather anywhere that'll dampen turnout:

Too bad the Michigan and Ohio primaries aren't today.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Apparently Kentucky switched from a primary to a caucus this year. Why the hell would anyone do that?

Long story short, Paul absolutely screamed when he realized that Kentucky's laws prevented from appearing on both the president and senate primary ballots, so he bribed the Kentucky GOP to let him dart around the law by holding a caucus (which has no official ballot) instead of using the State-Run primary. Yeah, Paul wouldn't have been able to run for both offices in the general, but he wanted to delay choosing which one to stop running for as long as possible, assuming he was at least competitive late into the primary season. Of course, the issue is moot now with Paul out of the race, but the Paul-sponsored caucus remains.

The Dems will still take a slot in the May Kentucky State-Run Primary, which also selects nominees for downballot offices on both sides.

[OkThen]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/706137884022218756

KY journalist. Good follow for KY caucus info.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't have a link to this, but there aren't going to be any exit polls tonight, either for Louisiana or any of the caucus states. Unfortunately.

[Tender Branson]

I don't have a link to this, but there aren't going to be any exit polls tonight, either for Louisiana or any of the caucus states. Unfortunately.

Just checked the Edison Research page.

True, no exit polls today.

The next ones will be done for MI and MS next week.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/706137884022218756

KY journalist. Good follow for KY caucus info.

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Except that the caucus hadn't started yet at the time he wrote that.  How did they vote for Trump before the caucuses started?

[OkThen]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/706137884022218756

KY journalist. Good follow for KY caucus info.

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Except that the caucus hadn't started yet at the time he wrote that.  How did they vote for Trump before the caucuses started?

Uhhhh they started at 10:00am. He tweeted it at 10:22am...

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/706137884022218756

KY journalist. Good follow for KY caucus info.

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Except that the caucus hadn't started yet at the time he wrote that.  How did they vote for Trump before the caucuses started?

Uhhhh they started at 10:00am. He tweeted it at 10:22am...

Oh, sorry.  The timestamps on Twitter are being screwy for me for some reason.

[Mr. Morden]

Huge lines in Kentucky for the caucus.  Are we going to see a Nevada-esque fiasco?:

Boone County:



Louisville:



Bowling Green:

[Eraserhead]

I don't have a link to this, but there aren't going to be any exit polls tonight, either for Louisiana or any of the caucus states. Unfortunately.

Wow, I thought they'd at least do one for Louisiana. The networks are getting cheap. Bummer.

[Mr. Morden]

Even though some of the caucuses in Kentucky end at 4pm ET and others at 5pm ET, the Kentucky GOP's website says they won't have any results until 7pm ET:

http://rpk.org/caucus/results/

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

A LOOOOOOT of people at that caucus site in Wichita on CNN, looks very CRUZ friendly

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz is in Wichita, Kansas at a caucus site there: