Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)
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Author Topic: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)  (Read 52742 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #400 on: March 05, 2016, 06:29:01 PM »
27% in MAINE
cruz 45
trump 36
rubio 11
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Hydera
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« Reply #401 on: March 05, 2016, 06:29:08 PM »
Quote from: WeAreDoomed on March 05, 2016, 06:24:37 PM
I think Kasich is going to become the nominee at this point.

Whew, i thought this was another case of "Rubio wins by not winning".
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #402 on: March 05, 2016, 06:31:18 PM »
Let me throw some DDHQ at ya
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #403 on: March 05, 2016, 06:31:44 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on March 05, 2016, 06:28:44 PM
Quote from: Donnie on March 05, 2016, 06:27:43 PM
Maine: Precincts Reporting 27.3%

Cruz     46.9%
Trump  34.6%

Fox News says a candidate gets all the state's delegates if they win a majority of the vote.

The numbers I'm seeing suggest it's unlikely Cruz gets a majority in Maine.
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The Free North
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« Reply #404 on: March 05, 2016, 06:32:33 PM »
Anyone remember when Ted Cruz was supposed to be dead after his dismal finishes in SC and NV?
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Alcon
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« Reply #405 on: March 05, 2016, 06:34:04 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on March 05, 2016, 06:32:33 PM
Anyone remember when Ted Cruz was supposed to be dead after his dismal finishes in SC and NV?

There's a lot of things about this season that a reasonable predictor wouldn't have foreseen, but the constant overreaction to individual contests is a perennial that needs to go away.

A lot of that today, too.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #406 on: March 05, 2016, 06:34:27 PM »
This is a glorious day.
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cinyc
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« Reply #407 on: March 05, 2016, 06:35:14 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on March 05, 2016, 06:31:44 PM
Quote from: cinyc on March 05, 2016, 06:28:44 PM
Quote from: Donnie on March 05, 2016, 06:27:43 PM
Maine: Precincts Reporting 27.3%

Cruz     46.9%
Trump  34.6%

Fox News says a candidate gets all the state's delegates if they win a majority of the vote.

The numbers I'm seeing suggest it's unlikely Cruz gets a majority in Maine.

Probably not.  But we have absolutely no idea where these votes are coming from in Maine, except by Twitter rumors.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #408 on: March 05, 2016, 06:36:32 PM »
Got my brownies and tea and I'm ready for the lolpalooza to really kick in.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #409 on: March 05, 2016, 06:37:05 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 05, 2016, 06:24:25 PM
Any idea when we are supposed to start getting official Kentucky results?

Top of the hour, hopefully.
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The Free North
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« Reply #410 on: March 05, 2016, 06:37:38 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 05, 2016, 06:36:32 PM
Got my brownies and tea and I'm ready for the lolpalooza to really kick in.

Just wait until Kasich wins Michigan on Tuesday.

Oh this is going to be fun.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #411 on: March 05, 2016, 06:39:23 PM »
The Republican party is more fractured than I thought it was.
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Xing
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« Reply #412 on: March 05, 2016, 06:39:54 PM »
It would be hilarious if Cruz actually won Maine. Conventional wisdom has been the biggest loser of this election cycle.
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Why
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« Reply #413 on: March 05, 2016, 06:39:56 PM »
WHere are these results for 27% of Maine coming from? CNN, NYT and Politco all have 4.5%/5% counted.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #414 on: March 05, 2016, 06:40:42 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 05, 2016, 06:38:33 PM
Cruz up big in Maine is a legit surprise.  The Cruz win in Kansas isn't that surprising, but being over 50% is.  Possible explanations:

1. Further Trump erosion with devout Evangelicals (and Catholics in the north/midwest) after his genitalia joke and torture comments?

2. There's a block of high info suburban voters who have the preference order Rubio>Cruz>Trump.  After Rubio lost VA and started making Trump style insults, they have given up on him and are strategically voting for Cruz to stop Trump.  This effect would be even stronger in caucuses than primaries.  

3. Maybe we just need a caucus dummy variable to account for Cruz's turnout machine?


GOP this year is nothing but a series of dummy variables.  Ba-dum-ching.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #415 on: March 05, 2016, 06:40:43 PM »
Doesn't strike me as a particularly evangelical state...
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Matty
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« Reply #416 on: March 05, 2016, 06:40:50 PM »
Quote from: Unbiased on March 05, 2016, 06:39:56 PM
WHere are these results for 27% of Maine coming from? CNN, NYT and Politco all have 4.5%/5% counted.
DDHQ
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Gass3268
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« Reply #417 on: March 05, 2016, 06:40:59 PM »
Quote from: Unbiased on March 05, 2016, 06:39:56 PM
WHere are these results for 27% of Maine coming from? CNN, NYT and Politco all have 4.5%/5% counted.

DDHQ
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #418 on: March 05, 2016, 06:41:46 PM »
Wow, this is really looking like a two-way Trump Cruz race now.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #419 on: March 05, 2016, 06:42:11 PM »
They have a really weird track record.

In 2012 everyone thought Ron Paul was going to win there and then Romney won handily.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #420 on: March 05, 2016, 06:42:56 PM »
Quote from: Unbiased on March 05, 2016, 06:39:56 PM
WHere are these results for 27% of Maine coming from? CNN, NYT and Politco all have 4.5%/5% counted.

I presume via twitter.  It's actually pretty unprofessional to release results before all voting in the state has been completed.  Or so I believe.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #421 on: March 05, 2016, 06:43:12 PM »
Trump won Knox County, ME
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yourelection
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« Reply #422 on: March 05, 2016, 06:43:48 PM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 05, 2016, 06:41:46 PM
Wow, this is really looking like a two-way Trump Cruz race now.

Actually the Super Tuesday results were already pointing in this direction.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #423 on: March 05, 2016, 06:44:09 PM »
I strongly suspect Kasich beats Rubio in Maine
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #424 on: March 05, 2016, 06:44:59 PM »
Maine can be weird. They did elect Paul LePage twice.
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