Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[yankeesfan]

Kentucky lead down to 3.6%

[/]

[GLPman]

I can't believe I'm rooting for Cruz to win both races. Never thought I'd see the day.

[Likely Voter]

Can it be definitively said that Trump lost the election day voting in LA?

[RI]

Trump got over 60% in St. Bernard Parish

[Gass3268]

DDHQ called KY for Trump.

And when does DDHQ ever get it wrong, amirite guys?

They haven't.

[Dr. Arch]

Did Rubio even win a county/parish today?

[Ljube]

I can't believe I'm rooting for Cruz to win both races. Never thought I'd see the day.

Why?

[RI]

Did Rubio even win a county/parish today?

Unlikely

[Gass3268]

Cruz won Warren County, KY (Bowling Green), but only about 6%. Not a lot of big Cruz counties left.

[The Free North]

Can it be definitively said that Trump lost the election day voting in LA?

Yes. Perhaps by a wide margin. Someone with more resources than me can probably calculate it once everything is finalized.

Ultimately, this hits at my point earlier. Trump clearly had an advantage that was lost sometime in the past few weeks. I dont know why Cruz gained so much traction, perhaps Trump just scared a lot of people or there was a lot of strategic voting....but either way, this coupled with KY and ME signals Trump is not going to run away with this thing and moreover, the momentum appears to be moving away from him quite noticeable.

Cruz should have won KS and nothing else...no excuse for any of these other races to be close for Trump. KY is appalachia, LA is the deep south, and Trump has swept NNE.

[Miles]

DDHQ called KY for Trump.

And when does DDHQ ever get it wrong, amirite guys?

Yep. We retracted KY Gov R-Primary for Bevin, but it was right anyway.  

[Ljube]

It's obvious that Cruz exceeded expectations. I wonder where that gets us.

[Vosem]

Did Rubio even win a county/parish today?

Almost certainly not, but considering the extremely low numbers of votes cast in some western Kansas counties, a small chance exists. Romney lost the state to Santorum 51-21, and the west part by even more, but he won a county, Gingrich came within a few votes of winning another, and Santorum eclipsed 70% in a different one. Remember, Carson won an Alaska borough.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So Cruz wins are much wider than Trump wins... seems like a better night for Cruz than Trump anecdotally.

Seems like late decided swung heavily towards Cruz tonight.

[Asian Nazi]

It's obvious that Cruz exceeded expectations. I wonder where that gets us.

The only real surprise was his win in Maine.  At most this just damages Rubio.  The math shows that TRUMP is still safe.

[Kalimantan]

Orleans Parish has so little counted that Rubio is still in second place there based on early votes. The Election Day votes will clearly be more favorable for Cruz. St. Bernard and Jefferson are good for _trump but they're also mostly in.

What's relevant is that _trump's statewide lead is narrow and he will be far from 50% in all congressional districts except maybe the 1st. _trump has failed to get a majority of delegates from LA, which he needs to do if he wants nomination. The poor man must be sweating buckets after his defeat tonight -- and we know his body is fragile and can only take so much stress.

although LA and KY should be some of the strongest states for Cruz, but he's still not winning them, Rubio is almost dead and now we're heading to a map less favourable for Cruz (his caucus win in ME notwithstanding). Trump is running at a vote level virtually identical to Romney in 2012 and should cruise to the nomination from here (#nevertrump considerations aside)

[win win]

It's looking like one of Rubio or Kasich need to drop instead of splitting the vote (maine and LA)

[Ljube]

So Cruz wins are much wider than Trump wins... seems like a better night for Cruz than Trump anecdotally.

Yes, but a bad night for the Republican Party.

[The Free North]

So Cruz wins are much wider than Trump wins... seems like a better night for Cruz than Trump anecdotally.

Trumps likely wins are in states with a higher combined delegate total so more of a draw than anything else.

[cinyc]

Remember, Carson won an Alaska borough.

The area Carson won, Bethel, is technically not an Alaskan borough - it's a Census Area.  Carson actually won a whole Alaska House District.  The only precinct in the House District was in said Census Area, despite there being plenty of bush villages, some in other Census Areas, in that House District.

[The Free North]

Still lots of precincts out in Shreveport and East Baton Rouge (both of which are big Cruz territory). If he can rack up leads there and cut into Trump in New Orleans, it may be close.

Lots of work to do but with 25% of the vote left there are some Cruz precincts that could close this.

[yankeesfan]

Cruz looks like he'll come out with more delegates today

[Why]

Cruz is behind by about 4500 in Jefferson and St Tammany Parishes combined which both border Orleans. This is almost half the amount he is currently trailing. If Orleans goes the same way then the margin could expand again.

[Matty]

Cruz is behind by about 4500 in Jefferson and St Tammany Parishes combined which both border Orleans. This is almost half the amount he is currently trailing. If Orleans goes the same way then the margin could expand again.

unbiaed, you are missing the point.

trump is MASSIVELY underperforming today. Polls had him up 21 in both kentucky and Louisiana.