Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[IceSpear]

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

I don't think anyone expects someone else to win a majority of delegates. It's between an outright Trump win and a brokered convention.

[Ljube]

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

Trump always loses with voters who made their decision in the last minute. I think it's obvious why that is.

Yes. That's because the Establishment is against TRUMP.

[Blue3]

Trumps wins Kentucky (and hangs onto Louisiana).

[Vosem]

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

_trump just can't perform, in any context at all. Sad.

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

Because _trump loses if he fails to get 50%, which is possible even if (hypothetically; this won't take place) he wins 40+ states if he gets sufficiently low vote percentages and doesn't win a few key winner-take-alls. Cruz is the likeliest nominee in the event of a contested convention. Simple as that.

[Likely Voter]

why is Trump talking about polls when actual votes are coming in? Tonight it looks like he will get around 33% of the vote

[Why]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Not enough to make up all the difference although it might narrow a bit.

[ElectionsGuy]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Depends if they're white or black precincts

In a Republican primary, almost all the voters are white, but Trump does perform better in blacker areas. Is that what you're referring to?

[Maxwell]

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

_trump just can't perform, in any context at all. Sad.

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

Because _trump loses if he fails to get 50%, which is possible even if (hypothetically; this won't take place) he wins 40+ states if he gets sufficiently low vote percentages and doesn't win a few key winner-take-alls. Cruz is the likeliest nominee in the event of a contested convention. Simple as that.

Nah. The establishment would knee cap Cruz in a brokered convention if they had the chance.

[Vosem]

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

True, but only since he did so well on Super Tuesday. LA was going to be part of Cruz's base like AL and GA.

I think AL and GA have been considered strong _trump states since the pattern of his support became apparent. (Not the case for LA, but then it looks like the victory there will be very small; 4% margin at the very most).

why is Trump talking about polls when actual votes are coming in? Tonight it looks like he will get around 33% of the vote

Because _trump loses when people vote! So why would he talk about that?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The media seem like cucks

[Gass3268]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

MSNBC said that part of Caddo vote is still the early vote, which I imagine will be better for Trump.

[jaichind]

The FL results will tell us if the narrative is the consolidation of the anti-Trump vote around the strongest non-Trump candidate or is it just a collapse of Rubio with his base going to Cruz.

[Ljube]

Nah. The establishment would knee cap Cruz in a brokered convention if they had the chance.

Yes, with ease. Who would be the nominee then?

[Asian Nazi]

TRUMP should avoid attacking Cruz too hard.  Best to keep him around to help make himself look more moderate for the general election.

[Penelope]

Nah. The establishment would knee cap Cruz in a brokered convention if they had the chance.

Yes, with ease. Who would be the nominee then?

[catographer]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Depends if they're white or black precincts

In a Republican primary, almost all the voters are white, but Trump does perform better in blacker areas. Is that what you're referring to?

That may be because the white voters in majority African American precincts are more racist since they live around more AAs.

[Why]

Cruz not doing too badly in Orleans and is back in front in Ouachita.

[Ljube]

Nah. The establishment would knee cap Cruz in a brokered convention if they had the chance.

Yes, with ease. Who would be the nominee then?

That loser? Watch for a 2012 repeat then.

[Vosem]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

MSNBC said that the Caddo vote is still the early vote, which I imagine will be better for Trump.

Hasn't the early vote been taken into account basically everywhere? Would be very strange if this was true. (Also, early vote isn't part of any precinct -- that's why we started with "initial results" in most counties -- and 48% of actual physical precincts are still out). So this is very likely to be bullsh**t.

Nah. The establishment would knee cap Cruz in a brokered convention if they had the chance.

Yes, with ease. Who would be the nominee then?

Cruz+_trump loyalists would almost certainly be a majority, so the votes would not be there for an establishment nominee. Cruz could deliberately engineer a slow leak from establishment and _trump to him, point to that as momentum, and then manufacture actual momentum. _trump's delegates will be leaving him because it's clear a large number of them will be hacks who were simply forced into supporting him, whereas Rubio/Kasich will be losing delegates to new entrants. The new entrants can be attacked by the line "why didn't you run in the primaries", so they'll have a cap which is under 50%. Only Cruz will be able to win. Boom.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As I said in IRC, regardless of the outcome, the LA call was way too early.

[DINGO Joe]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Depends if they're white or black precincts

In a Republican primary, almost all the voters are white, but Trump does perform better in blacker areas. Is that what you're referring to?

That may be because the white voters in majority African American precincts are more racist since they live around more AAs.

No, I mean if most of the precincts out are black precincts there are no R votes left to count.  And there weren't

[Kalimantan]

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

_trump just can't perform, in any context at all. Sad.

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

Because _trump loses if he fails to get 50%, which is possible even if (hypothetically; this won't take place) he wins 40+ states if he gets sufficiently low vote percentages and doesn't win a few key winner-take-alls. Cruz is the likeliest nominee in the event of a contested convention. Simple as that.

seems like wishful thinking. Rubio will - has to- drop out very soon, perhaps before Florida. When it  becomes a Cruz v _trump race Drumpf will start his pivot to the middle and clean-up in the northern states. What does Cruz have left to win? Arizona? Nebraska? The only way that this becomes brokered is a Kasich surge that wins OH, MI, PA, IL and other big states

[Likely Voter]

Trump is lying about CPAC. He pulled out because he didn't want to do the Q&A session like all the other candidates

[Ljube]

Cruz+_trump loyalists would almost certainly be a majority, so the votes would not be there for an establishment nominee. Cruz could deliberately engineer a slow leak from establishment and _trump to him, point to that as momentum, and then manufacture actual momentum. _trump's delegates will be leaving him because it's clear a large number of them will be hacks who were simply forced into supporting him, whereas Rubio/Kasich will be losing delegates to new entrants. The new entrants can be attacked by the line "why didn't you run in the primaries", so they'll have a cap which is under 50%. Only Cruz will be able to win. Boom.

That's a fantasy scenario. All delegates are Establishment hacks and they will vote for whoever the Establishment decides. It ain't gonna be Cruz.

[The Free North]

Trump is very very low energy tonight.