Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[Maxwell]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

[Asian Nazi]

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

_trump just can't perform, in any context at all. Sad.

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

Because _trump loses if he fails to get 50%, which is possible even if (hypothetically; this won't take place) he wins 40+ states if he gets sufficiently low vote percentages and doesn't win a few key winner-take-alls. Cruz is the likeliest nominee in the event of a contested convention. Simple as that.

seems like wishful thinking. Rubio will - has to- drop out very soon, perhaps before Florida. When it  becomes a Cruz v _trump race Drumpf will start his pivot to the middle and clean-up in the northern states. What does Cruz have left to win? Arizona? Nebraska? The only way that this becomes brokered is a Kasich surge that wins OH, MI, PA, IL and other big states

Stop feeding the troll

[Antonio the Sixth]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

That would be the rational thing for him to do at this point.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

[Ljube]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

He is not smart enough for that.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Jim Acosta being ostracised on live tv on CNN lol

[Kalimantan]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

absolutely. Only way he won't is if he doesn't want to be seen to be responding to Trump's call to dropout

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Also, looks like Cruz and Trump will be virtually tied in delegates from LA 14-13

[Ljube]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

What warning signs? You and the other TRUMP haters are causing the implosion.

[Likely Voter]

As I predicted, here is NYT Upshot editor....

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Brittain33]

Rubio will not pull out before Florida.

[Why]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

That would be the rational thing for him to do at this point.

He should do so but is probably being pushed to stay in just in case he can win Florida in a surprise.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

What warning signs? You and the other TRUMP haters are causing the implosion.

How are we causing the problem? Trump is doing that himself.

[emailking]

As I said in IRC, regardless of the outcome, the LA call was way too early.

But how do you conclude that? They call it when they're confident someone will win, not when they're confident it won't tighten significantly. They know what they're doing.

[Vosem]

91% in. All of Orleans suburbs in except St. Tammany, which is 87% in. 52% counted in Caddo, 52% in Ouachita, 57% in East Baton Rouge, 9% in Orleans is counted; the rest is out. Looks strong for Cruz, though whether it's enough to actually swing the outcome looks doubtful. _trump winning statewide delegates just 15-13; he needs to lose a little more than a point in the margin for it to be tied 14-14 (and the CD delegates are structured so that it's very difficult for anyone except a landslide winner to get a majority of them). It is clear that _trump has failed to claim a majority of delegates from any state (and depending on how CD results look in Louisiana, there's an outside chance Cruz actually takes more delegates than _trump does).

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

_trump just can't perform, in any context at all. Sad.

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

Because _trump loses if he fails to get 50%, which is possible even if (hypothetically; this won't take place) he wins 40+ states if he gets sufficiently low vote percentages and doesn't win a few key winner-take-alls. Cruz is the likeliest nominee in the event of a contested convention. Simple as that.

seems like wishful thinking. Rubio will - has to- drop out very soon, perhaps before Florida. When it  becomes a Cruz v _trump race Drumpf will start his pivot to the middle and clean-up in the northern states. What does Cruz have left to win? Arizona? Nebraska? The only way that this becomes brokered is a Kasich surge that wins OH, MI, PA, IL and other big states

Rubio dropping out is a fantasy, except in the event that he loses FL overwhelmingly while Kasich wins OH, in which case his remaining votes transfer to Kasich en masse. Rubio dropping out before FL is a complete fantasy, the establishment have staked the task of stopping _trump on him. What Cruz has left to win is most of the west, including California where polling has shown him up. The number of WTA states is not large (a majority of WTA delegates are allocated on 3/15).

Regardless, again, the focus on first-place is blinding you to reality. If Cruz+Rubio+Kasich have more delegates than _trump in a state, _trump has lost. That's every state tonight.

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

No. Next question.

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

That would be the rational thing for him to do at this point.

It would not be the rational thing for his presidential campaign or his career. There is an argument that endorsing Cruz would be the rational thing from a pure #Never_trump point of view, but Rubio is still looking forward to a contested convention (which looks difficult for him, but I digress).

[Yank2133]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

They have learned nothing from 2012.

[Likely Voter]

Did Trump just pledge to not do any fundraising for his general campaign, but will fundraise for the party?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump wants to expand the laws to torture people

[Pandaguineapig]

As I said in IRC, regardless of the outcome, the LA call was way too early.

But how do you conclude that? They call it when they're confident someone will win, not when they're confident it won't tighten significantly. They know what they're doing.

I doubt they predicted the race tightening  to within 5%

[The Free North]

Not good for El Trump

https://twitter.com/bycoffe/status/706332494258376704

[Ljube]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

What warning signs? You and the other TRUMP haters are causing the implosion.

How are we causing the problem? Trump is doing that himself.

You are uniting against TRUMP instead of coalescing around him. You are causing the implosion.

It’s not a normal treatment of the frontrunner and it’s one indicative of having the desire to stop him and not thinking about the consequences in the general.

[emailking]

As I said in IRC, regardless of the outcome, the LA call was way too early.

But how do you conclude that? They call it when they're confident someone will win, not when they're confident it won't tighten significantly. They know what they're doing.

I doubt they predicted the race tightening  to within 5%

Doesn't matter. They predicted it wouldn't tighten to within 0, which is all they need to make the call.

[Mike Thick]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

They have learned nothing from 2012.

I disagree. They learned that candidates like Trump implode after a short period ahead in the polls. And that may be what doomed them in the end.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's sad to see the GOP implode over itself like this. The party should have noticed the warning signs

What warning signs? You and the other TRUMP haters are causing the implosion.

How are we causing the problem? Trump is doing that himself.

You are uniting against TRUMP instead of coalescing around him. You are causing the implosion.

It’s not a normal treatment of the frontrunner and it’s one indicative of having the desire to stop him and not thinking about the consequences in the general.

For the good of the party THAT IS WHY we're against him, me and so many others will never vote for him because he can't come up with decent policy positions, his campaign has brought out the worst in people with passionate xenophobia, racism, etc., and we're fighting to prevent that.

[Ljube]

For the good of the party THAT IS WHY we're against him, me and so many others will never vote for him because he can't come up with decent policy positions, his campaign has brought out the worst in people with passionate xenophobia, racism, etc., and we're fighting to prevent that.

Then, the Republican Party will lose.