Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[DINGO Joe]

i'm not at all surprised, it's not that far of a leap from sociopath paul lepage to actual zodiac killer ted cruz.

And yet Lepage endorsed Trump--Discuss.

[DINGO Joe]

i'm not at all surprised, it's not that far of a leap from sociopath paul lepage to actual zodiac killer ted cruz.

And yet Lepage endorsed Trump--Discuss.

Nobody likes LePage, including in Maine.

So, it was a secret plot between LePage and Cruz, LePage would endorse Trump catapulting Cruz to victory

[DINGO Joe]

Of course Cruz is doing well in Maine, it's practically Canada!

It's great news for America as it's much cheaper and easier to build a wall between NH and Maine than between Maine and Canada.

[DINGO Joe]

Rand Paul spotting at KY Caucus, I wonder who he voted for.

He was still on the ballot wasn't he?

[DINGO Joe]

I love how informal results for Maine are popping up when the state doesn't end polling until 7 PM.

Each caucus site has different times.  Most of them are already done.

[DINGO Joe]

Honestly, Maine was always seen as the safest _trump state tonight,

Uh... LA should be way safer for Trump than ME.

Why?

[DINGO Joe]

The more I hear about caucuses, state by state, the worse they sound.

Caucuses are shady and undemocratic. I could understand them being common in places like Mexico or Iran but they have no place in America. Caucuses are an abomination and state parties that run should have their offices sacked.

Har

[DINGO Joe]

Cruz seems to be doing roughly equally well in all three Kansas districts that have reported so far. This might mean that he'll win CD3 as well.

At this point, it seems to be all rural counties.  No reason to think any of Wichita has come in or even anything as big as Topeka.

[DINGO Joe]

Cruz up big in Maine is a legit surprise.  The Cruz win in Kansas isn't that surprising, but being over 50% is.  Possible explanations:

1. Further Trump erosion with devout Evangelicals (and Catholics in the north/midwest) after his genitalia joke and torture comments?

2. There's a block of high info suburban voters who have the preference order Rubio>Cruz>Trump.  After Rubio lost VA and started making Trump style insults, they have given up on him and are strategically voting for Cruz to stop Trump.  This effect would be even stronger in caucuses than primaries.  

3. Maybe we just need a caucus dummy variable to account for Cruz's turnout machine?

GOP this year is nothing but a series of dummy variables.  Ba-dum-ching.

[DINGO Joe]

WHere are these results for 27% of Maine coming from? CNN, NYT and Politco all have 4.5%/5% counted.

I presume via twitter.  It's actually pretty unprofessional to release results before all voting in the state has been completed.  Or so I believe.

[DINGO Joe]

Rubio is apparently tightening the race in Florida, Kasich is apparently ahead in Michigan, Cruz is overperforming tonight. If this is all true, wth happened to Trump?

The establishment...

[DINGO Joe]

It is interesting that the KS 3rd district results shows Rubio not doing that well which is different from expectations.

Either no one voted in the 3rd or the 20% in thus far came from less R parts of the 3rd

[DINGO Joe]

Kansas is now 95% in; Cruz falls to 48%.

Massive KS-03 dump puts Kasich above 10%

Rubio actually finished 2nd in the 3rd.  Kasich w/15%

[DINGO Joe]

Massive Trump margin in Clay County, KY

Trump gonna make coal great again! (of course he won't)

[DINGO Joe]

Harlan, Kentucky goes 41-32-22 Trump, Cruz, Rubio

rather weak turnout though

[DINGO Joe]

Harlan, Kentucky goes 41-32-22 Trump, Cruz, Rubio

Harlan is on the VA border.  That's a surprisingly bad result for Trump.  Closed caucus effect?

Most likely though I expect there was only one caucus location for the whole county.

[DINGO Joe]

Cruz wins Marshal County, Kentucky 45-31 (Southwest Kentucky)

If Cruz could do that well in all of WKY, then it could be very close.

[DINGO Joe]

Isn't coal country in Kentucky confined to pretty much one congressional district (i.e. KY-05), or basically a sixth of the state's population?

They actually mine coal in a stretch of WKY too.

[DINGO Joe]

Campbell county Kentucky goes 31% Cruz, 28% Trump, 25% KASICH

That probably ends it for Cruz

[DINGO Joe]

So what is the final Kentucky margin likely to look like?

have to see Louisville/Lexington to know

[DINGO Joe]

Does Cruz have better chance of winning Louisiana or Kentucky?

Nope

[DINGO Joe]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Depends if they're white or black precincts

[DINGO Joe]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Depends if they're white or black precincts

In a Republican primary, almost all the voters are white, but Trump does perform better in blacker areas. Is that what you're referring to?

That may be because the white voters in majority African American precincts are more racist since they live around more AAs.

No, I mean if most of the precincts out are black precincts there are no R votes left to count.  And there weren't