Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[Why]

It appears the anti-Trump movement has finally killed off Rubio and given Cruz an excellent chance to beat Trump. Not sure that was their intention.

[Why]

WHere are these results for 27% of Maine coming from? CNN, NYT and Politco all have 4.5%/5% counted.

[Why]

Thank you

[Why]

Ben JacobsVerified account
‏@Bencjacobs
New ARG poll of Michigan

Kasich: 33%
Trump: 31%
Cruz: 15%
Rubio: 11%

Kasich has been over performing polling in states he does well?

[Why]

It seems unlikely that Cruz will break 50% in Kansas. CD4 is his best district (58%), and it's entirely finished. He's at or below 50 everywhere else.

He is at 49.7% in CD3 which has by far the largest amount still to report. If he improves there slightly he will stay over 50%. It will be very close.

[Why]

Cruz is doing well in the North of Louisiana but is getting well beaten in the everything south east of Baton Rouge. Except Ascension which he is winning.

[Why]

The difference between Kasich and Rubio is that Kasich has a very good chance of winning Ohio while Rubio has almost no chance of winning Florida. Also I doubt Kasich will have another shot running for the Presidency while Rubio is probably looking at either 2020 or 2024.

[Why]

Cruz now well ahead in East Baton Rouge Parish. Could get a bit closer than the networks expected depending on what happens in Orleans.

[Why]

Orleans is looking very poor for Cruz though.

[Why]

Trump is now leading in Ouachita (Monroe) where he was losing to Cruz before.

[Why]

Cruz is behind by about 4500 in Jefferson and St Tammany Parishes combined which both border Orleans. This is almost half the amount he is currently trailing. If Orleans goes the same way then the margin could expand again.

[Why]

And lots more votes in those three counties favouring Trump.

[Why]

Cruz is behind by about 4500 in Jefferson and St Tammany Parishes combined which both border Orleans. This is almost half the amount he is currently trailing. If Orleans goes the same way then the margin could expand again.

unbiaed, you are missing the point.

trump is MASSIVELY underperforming today. Polls had him up 21 in both kentucky and Louisiana.

What?
I am talking about results in a few Parishes, you are talking about the big picture. Today is a better day for Cruz than expected, that cannot be denied, winning Maine was a surprise. Whether it is enough to help keep Trump below 1237 I am not sure, but not good signs for Trump.
However the biggest loser out of the day is Rubio, he has nothing. He will lose Florida if the polling is not completely wrong and has no hope of being anything but an annoyance.

[Why]

Trump has absolutely dominated the south east corner of Louisiana, but Cruz has done well elsewhere.

[Why]

Still plenty of votes in Caddo and East Baton Rouge for Cruz to make this a nail-biter in Louisiana.

Not enough to make up all the difference although it might narrow a bit.

[Why]

Cruz not doing too badly in Orleans and is back in front in Ouachita.

[Why]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

That would be the rational thing for him to do at this point.

He should do so but is probably being pushed to stay in just in case he can win Florida in a surprise.