Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[Kalimantan]

Surprised Cruz is doing well in the Cincinnati suburbs and Franklin county (Frankfort), should bode well potentially for Fayette and Jefferson county and WKY is still out.

In the Cinci suburbs Cruz is pretty much matching his state-wide numbers, it just looks better for him because Kasich is running very strong here at the expense of Trump and thus in a three-way race Cruz is winning the countys.

[Kalimantan]

Anyone else think LA might have been a premie call?

Possibly. Twitter has been all over this. The networks called the state after a few initial results and the fact that Early/Abstentee votes showed Trump with a huge lead.

Election day voting has HEAVILY tilted Cruz while both Rubio and Trump have seen their support drop relative to early voting. While this signals (what the rest of the day showed us already) a Cruz surge, it also means that we may not know who actually won until quite late tonight.

Cruz doing very well in the Texas bordering parishes, but they are largely in. Baton Rouge looks a tie, Orleans still to come and the biggest parish, Trump has cleaned up in all its bordering parishes and I'd expect him to do the same in the city.

and with Jefferson county now in in KY, thats sealed that state for Trump

[Kalimantan]

Orleans Parish has so little counted that Rubio is still in second place there based on early votes. The Election Day votes will clearly be more favorable for Cruz. St. Bernard and Jefferson are good for _trump but they're also mostly in.

What's relevant is that _trump's statewide lead is narrow and he will be far from 50% in all congressional districts except maybe the 1st. _trump has failed to get a majority of delegates from LA, which he needs to do if he wants nomination. The poor man must be sweating buckets after his defeat tonight -- and we know his body is fragile and can only take so much stress.

although LA and KY should be some of the strongest states for Cruz, but he's still not winning them, Rubio is almost dead and now we're heading to a map less favourable for Cruz (his caucus win in ME notwithstanding). Trump is running at a vote level virtually identical to Romney in 2012 and should cruise to the nomination from here (#nevertrump considerations aside)

[Kalimantan]

Cruz is behind by about 4500 in Jefferson and St Tammany Parishes combined which both border Orleans. This is almost half the amount he is currently trailing. If Orleans goes the same way then the margin could expand again.

up to 6500 votes now in these two parishes. Trump is killing it in Jefferson

[Kalimantan]

CNN has to call Kentucky now, Trump is winning small county after small county and pulling ahead

[Kalimantan]

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

[Kalimantan]

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

[Kalimantan]

I think an under-reported story is Trump significantly underperforming the polls in nearly every state so far.

_trump just can't perform, in any context at all. Sad.

Yeah, it's clear Drumpf has won LA and KY.

Still, he underperformed and if he stays at this level he won't get to a majority of delegates.

But if Trump underperformed, how can Cruz not winning Kentucky or Lousiana be considered anything other than under-performing. These should be his strong states. If he can't win there how is he going to get the delegates he needs from Ohio or Michigan or New York or Pennsylvania?

Uh? KY and LA were always considered to be Drumpf territory. Pretty sure he was expected to beat Cruz by 10+ in each.

Well if Cruz can't win in southern states, whats he doing in the race? and as it now looks like a two-horse contest, how can these results indicate anything other than a Drumpf win overall?

Because _trump loses if he fails to get 50%, which is possible even if (hypothetically; this won't take place) he wins 40+ states if he gets sufficiently low vote percentages and doesn't win a few key winner-take-alls. Cruz is the likeliest nominee in the event of a contested convention. Simple as that.

seems like wishful thinking. Rubio will - has to- drop out very soon, perhaps before Florida. When it  becomes a Cruz v _trump race Drumpf will start his pivot to the middle and clean-up in the northern states. What does Cruz have left to win? Arizona? Nebraska? The only way that this becomes brokered is a Kasich surge that wins OH, MI, PA, IL and other big states

[Kalimantan]

Question - Could Rubio pull the chute before Florida to save his career?

absolutely. Only way he won't is if he doesn't want to be seen to be responding to Trump's call to dropout

[Kalimantan]

Regardless, again, the focus on first-place is blinding you to reality. If Cruz+Rubio+Kasich have more delegates than _trump in a state, _trump has lost. That's every state tonight.

Apparently you're a troll, But anyway, at the same point in the 2012 primary, Gingrich+Paul+Santorum had more delegates than Romney, but Romney didn't lose

[Kalimantan]

TRUMP collapsed a bit last night.

Will be interesting to see if this continues on Tuesday. MI and MS should be good indicators.

Not so sure of that, the poll aggregates for Trump were 41% for LA and 35% for KY, and he basically scored exactly that, so he didn't really collapse. What he didn't  do was pick up any of the undecided vote, and together with lots of Rubio voters switching to Cruz meant his margin was low single digits when the polls had projected large leads. Meanwhile he has no ground game in caucus states. But he's still winning. MI and MS will indeed be interesting