Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[cinyc]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/706185870194425857

Cruz won Waldo county in Maine per twitter.

Trump in 2nd followed by Kasich and then Boy Wonder.

I doubt Waldo County is representative of the rest of Maine.  It's very rural and has few even small cities.  Cumberland County (Portland) is probably where the real action is.

The by-county AP results page for Maine isn't breaking things down by county.  Nor is Decision Desk HQ.

[cinyc]

Maine caucus so far (1 caucus site out of 22):
Cruz     49.8%
Trump  30.8%
Kasich  10.5%
Rubio     7.6%

What? The entire state has only 22 caucus sites?

Looks that way:
http://mainegop.com/caucus/

Most counties have only one caucus site, except for the most populous or largest geographically, which have up to 3.  And there are only 16 counties in Maine.

[cinyc]

How can their be results from Main if the Caucus does not start until 8 pm   

They start at different times. go back to 2012 for reference

Some caucus sites are already done - much more than just Waldo County.  The latest closing time I see is 7:00PM in Houlton, ME, not 8.

[cinyc]

Someone on Twitter said Cruz won Kennebec County 2-1 over Trump

Kennebec County includes the state capital of Augusta.  It's a little more representative of the state than Waldo County, but it's not the Portland suburbs.  Caucuses there closed at noon, so it's plausible that we have results by now.

[cinyc]

Ted Cruz wins Hancock County, Maine by a 2:1 margin over Donald Trump.

https://twitter.com/JamieJmckown/status/706208681558302720

Hancock is next to Waldo County.  It is home to Bar Harbor and Acadia National Park.

[cinyc]

The twitter reports are indicating such a thorough upset that they're getting hard to believe.

The counties these are coming from were Ron Paul counties last time so...not unexpected.

The county that includes Portland (Cumberland) wasn't a Ron Paul county.  If the rumor that Cruz won big in the Portland caucus there is true, Cruz easily wins the state.

[cinyc]

Man Cruz is just swamping Kansas. I did not expect this level of performance.

Maybe Vosem might be right on the whole Romney speech swaying a certain segment of Rubio voters. The question is whether Cruz voters give a damn elsewhere.

Things can change, especially for Rubio.  None of the KC Suburbs in KS-3 are in yet.  But yes, Cruz will win Kansas.

[cinyc]

Cruz may have a big day today. Winning in KS, perhaps some surprises in KY and ME too. Have to wonder if anything has changed after the debate...or perhaps Trumps Super Tuesday win has motivated more people to get out and fight him.

People heeding Romney's advice to vote strategically, perhaps?

[cinyc]

Isn't Maine at 8? How are results coming in already?

Again, caucus times in Maine varied by caucus location.  Some locations held caucuses in the morning or early afternoon and have already closed.  The latest caucus closing time is 7PM, not 8.

[cinyc]

Ted Cruz has won Lincoln County, Maine per twitter (https://mobile.twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/706230955241897985?p=v)


At this point, there have been unofficial reports of him winning almost half of the counties in Maine, including in Portland and Augusta. It is likely he will vastly over-perform there if not win it outright.

Lincoln County is very small, and there probably aren't a lot of votes there, but Romney won it in 2012.

[cinyc]

Cruz wins Androscoggin County in ME...he likely wins the state.

Androscoggin County is Lewiston/Auburn.  Paul won it big in 2012, so it might not be indicative of anything.  But it's pretty clear Cruz is going to win Maine at this point.

[cinyc]

Trump won Aroostook County, ME

Maine's hat, Aroostook County, has 3 caucus sites.  One doesn't close until 7PM.  It must be one or two of the Aroostook caucus sites.

Aroostook was one of Paul's best counties in 2012.

[cinyc]

Maine: Precincts Reporting 27.3%

Cruz     46.9%
Trump  34.6%

Fox News says a candidate gets all the state's delegates if they win a majority of the vote.

[cinyc]

Maine: Precincts Reporting 27.3%

Cruz     46.9%
Trump  34.6%

Fox News says a candidate gets all the state's delegates if they win a majority of the vote.

The numbers I'm seeing suggest it's unlikely Cruz gets a majority in Maine.

Probably not.  But we have absolutely no idea where these votes are coming from in Maine, except by Twitter rumors.

[cinyc]

Trump won Knox County, ME

That's Rockland/Rockport/Camden.  Paul very narrowly won the county in 2012, by 2 votes.

[cinyc]

Kasich's over 20% in Cumberland County

That's Portland.  Who is winning it?

[cinyc]

Kasich's over 20% in Cumberland County

That's Portland.  Who is winning it?

Cruz, narrowly

Cumberland was a huge Romney county in 2012. 47-32.

[cinyc]

Cruz beat Trump in York County by 50 votes

Another Romney county in 2012.  41-35 Romney.  It's Maine's southernmost county.

[cinyc]

Cruz beat Trump in York County by 50 votes

is that good or bad for cruz?

I don't think there's any question Cruz is winning Maine.

[cinyc]

Cruz beat Trump by 4 votes in Bourbon County, KY.

Bourbon County is in the bluegrass, immediately northeast of Lexington's Fayette County.

[cinyc]

Do we have a Maine county map?

No.

[cinyc]

Trump wins Fleming county 42-31

You should specify the state.  That's a rural county in Northeastern Kentucky (Flemingsburg).

[cinyc]

Cruz wins larue county 37-36 (Kentucky)

A rural county in the central part of the state south of Louisville, but way outside of the metro.

[cinyc]

Trump should run it up in Coal Country. Not sure where Cruz might do the same.

Maybe in the western part of the state?  Probably nowhere, though.

[cinyc]

Massive Trump margin in Clay County, KY

A rural county near London, KY in the southeast on the cusp of, if not in, coal country.