Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

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Looks like _trump is collapsing among his New England base. Sad!

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Honestly, Maine was always seen as the safest _trump state tonight, with a Cruz victory in Kansas likely and Kentucky and Louisiana as longshots for the Cruz campaign (which I think they still are, unfortunately). It's hard to say which would be more favorable, since LA is better geographically (notably the border with LA was one of Cruz's strongest areas of Texas) while KY is a caucus, and he's always showed strength in caucuses.

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Honestly, Maine was always seen as the safest _trump state tonight,

Uh... LA should be way safer for Trump than ME.

How so? I'm legitimately curious. LA borders states where _trump lost and where he got <35% of the vote, and there is a single anti-_trump candidate there. By contrast, ME borders much stronger _trump-performing areas and there didn't seem to be a clear anti-_trump candidate there until the votes started coming in (most were predicting Kasich in second). I understand that ME is a caucus and LA is a primary, but...

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Oh, sorry realistic, I didn't see the answer the first time. I suppose that makes sense.

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CNN: Cruz campaign feeling good about Maine and Louisiana as well, but not necessarily wins. Feeling good about decent delegate counts.

This doesn't jive with the "reports" we are seeing out of Maine. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

I think it jives with Ted Cruz being a master of setting expectations.

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Rubio needs to take whatever course of action is likeliest to prevent a _trump victory in Florida. I am unconvinced by these results that dropping out is the best course of action; I think his FL support would split between Cruz and Kasich and give the state to _trump. If I'm Rubio, I keep fighting.

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If _trump can't do much better than 41-32 in coal country, he's going to lose Kentucky to Cruz.

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_trump wins Magoffin County, in the heart of coal country, 58-20; those are the numbers he needs to cancel out Cruz in western KY. We'll see how this goes.

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Statewide it's now 41-33 in Kentucky.

how does that break down delegate wise?

It's totally proportional among candidates who get over 5%, for 46 delegates. So long as all 4 candidates stay over 5%, which seems pretty certain, 41% is good for 19/46 delegates. Kentucky is another defeat for _trump, essentially, that puts us still closer to the contested convention.

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I wonder if there are enough votes out in WKY and the urban areas to overtake Trump? I highly doubt it.

It doesn't matter. trump did not do well enough to get a sufficient amount of delegates.

more close states like this and there is no way trump will get 1237.

If he wins Florida and Ohio he could.

If Kasich is even close in Michigan, then he's winning Ohio by double-digits.

How close does Cruz have to get to tie trump in delegates?

Overall or for the day? I don't think there're enough allocated today for Cruz to tie _trump overall. For the day, it depends on whether Cruz can get over the 50% hump in Maine for it to become WTA, and what the results are in Louisiana. The utter poll failures in the other states that voted today make that hard to forecast.

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Everyone in this thread is missing the point. Trump is killing himself with these under-performances. He is pissing away delegates.

Romney got 70% of the vote in kentucky.

Are you being sarcastic?

The anti-TRUMP trolls on this forum are so hysterical, Poe's Law must apply.

Man, _trump is going down in flames tonight

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Jesus, CNN is awful today.

Are you enjoying

SUPER CRUZDAY?!?!?!?!?!

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How close does Cruz have to get to tie trump in delegates?

Overall or for the day? I don't think there're enough allocated today for Cruz to tie _trump overall. For the day, it depends on whether Cruz can get over the 50% hump in Maine for it to become WTA, and what the results are in Louisiana. The utter poll failures in the other states that voted today make that hard to forecast.

For the day I meant

I typed out a long reply to this, but essentially even to tie Cruz in delegates today _trump needs to basically double up on him in LA. If Cruz is over 30% there, even with Trump over 50%, he wins the "delegates won on March 5" category.

If Trump can come very close to winning maine  hes having a good night

If _trump loses Maine he's having a terrible night. Remember before tonight when Maine was the safest for him of all these states?

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LONG LIVE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

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Pity he didn't break 50.

When was the last time we were rooting for the same guy before this election, Tony? Can't ever recall.

Who cares ... Trump still wins  by virtue of getting delagates.

_trump loses wherever he gets <50% of delegates. Every such result puts him even further away from his majority.

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Pity he didn't break 50.

When was the last time we were rooting for the same guy before this election, Tony? Can't ever recall.

Who cares ... Trump still wins  by virtue of getting delagates.

_trump loses wherever he gets <50% of delegates. Every such result puts him even further away from his majority.

Don't worry you will be singing a different tune on the 15th.  

D'you think Kasich or Rubio wins a plurality of delegates that day? Depends which is stronger in Illinois, I reckon.

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Reminder, profanity is not allowed. Trying tricks to get around the filters does not reflect well on your permanent record.

Sorry about that.

Trump loses Maine and and its " oh my gawd Ted Cruz is the 45th president "

God willing!

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Soo much much for the media narrative. .. Trump is crushing Cruz in Louisiana

Doesn't look like it'll be enough to get him a delegate lead out of tonight, and certainly nowhere near enough to get him >50% of delegates (which he won't get the nomination without). Sorry. Your boy lost tonight, it's all over but the shouting (and the contests ahead, sure).

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blahblahblahblahlowenergyzzzzzz

Look at the bags under the man's eyes. He didn't have the energy left to stay awake after this picture was taken.

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Its over people Cruz win Maine.   Lets get ready for the general election  Cruz vs Hillary

These results have probably made this the most likely scenario, yes. We'll have to wait for March 15 to confirm.

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How many delegates for little marco tonight?

6 from Kansas. 0 from Maine. Those are final. He's been going between 5 and 6 from Kentucky all night. LA is close -- the threshold for delegates from statewide allocation is 20%; he's currently at 17.9%. He seems to be doing worse in election day than absentee, so I doubt he'll make it. However, notably, LA delegates from CDs have no threshold, so anywhere _trump fails to eclipse 50%, the delegates will probably go 1-1-1 for the 1st-2nd-3rd candidates. Since Rubio is solidly in third, he's likely to get 1-3 delegates from LA in this way.

So...12-15 is the answer here.

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How many delegates for little marco tonight?

6 from Kansas. 0 from Maine. Those are final. He's been going between 5 and 6 from Kentucky all night. LA is close -- the threshold for delegates from statewide allocation is 20%; he's currently at 17.9%. He seems to be doing worse in election day than absentee, so I doubt he'll make it. However, notably, LA delegates from CDs have no threshold, so anywhere _trump fails to eclipse 50%, the delegates will probably go 1-1-1 for the 1st-2nd-3rd candidates. Since Rubio is solidly in third, he's likely to get 1-3 delegates from LA in this way.

So...12-15 is the answer here.

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Cruz is really gained ground in Louisana. Almost at 30% already.  I know it's already called, but it really shows the swing to Cruz from Rubio supporters.

It's very important to keep an eye on LA; if _trump can be kept below 50% in all or most congressional districts, they will split 1-1-1 instead of 2-1, and if his statewide win over Cruz is sufficiently small that will result in _trump getting <50% of delegates from LA, making this state another victory for the #Never_trump movement, ignited by Mitt Romney, that is sweeping the nation.

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Kentucky is only 44% in and the precincts that are out are more heavily populated and seemingly much better for Cruz: much more urban, suburban, and western. _trump is unfortunately probably still favored but Cruz still has a strong shot here.

LA is now 44-33

At present numbers, _trump is winning statewide allocated delegates in LA 16-12. If he can be kept under 50% in every congressional district, he loses the CD-allocated count ~12-6 (looks like Cruz won a northern CD, which would balance out somewhere Rubio does unusually poorly). In that case, _trump is held to a minority of delegates in every state that voted today. Nice job.

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Looks like TRUMP won Kentucky.  Nice to see Him keep the momentum up tonight!

Looks like _trump has been kept to a minority of delegates in every state. Yet another crushing defeat on the heals of Super Tuesday!