What exactly is Cruz' path for surpassing Trump?

[Devils30]

I know people are talking about a 1 on 1 race but how does Cruz win head to head? All of his best states are over with by 3/15. Does anyone seriously think Trump won't beat him in NY, MD, CT, RI, DE, NJ, CA?

[Vosem]

Cruz's path is for Rubio/Kasich to deny _trump delegate majorities in these states, go into the convention in a solid second place, attract the support of #Never_trump at the convention, and win. He has so far been doing decently well in this strategy -- his two big defeats have been his 3rd place in SC and his loss in AR, and both of those were spoiled by Carson, who is now out.

EDIT: Also, you add California to the list of all the Northeastern states; _trump is strong in the Northeast but polling has shown Cruz to be the favorite in California. We're speaking of the California GOP here, not the general electorate.

[Devils30]

Please, polling from 2 months ago from a mediocre pollster does not make Cruz a favorite in CA. I just think Trump even if he's not a majority will have such a delegate lead that you can't take it away from him. Cruz is also just as unlikable as Trump.

[Vosem]

Please, polling from 2 months ago from a mediocre pollster does not make Cruz a favorite in CA. I just think Trump even if he's not a majority will have such a delegate lead that you can't take it away from him. Cruz is also just as unlikable as Trump.

Cruz is no JFK when it comes to likability, but that's never held him back so far and I see no sign that it will begin to. If _trump has less than 50%, then the lead can of course be taken away from him; that's how mathematics works and that's how the will of the voters works.

[Mehmentum]

Cruz's path heavily relies on the west supporting him, particularly CA.  He also probably needs Kasich to keep Trump from romping through the midwest.

You also need to consider how chaotic this primary season has been so far.  All it takes is a few upsets in some key winner take all (or winner take most)  states, and suddenly Cruz has the advantage.

[Devils30]

Cruz needed LA and KY though. These are heavy Evangelical states. He also needed AR, TN, AL, GA, SC quite honestly.

[Mehmentum]

Cruz needed LA and KY though. These are heavy Evangelical states. He also needed AR, TN, AL, GA, SC quite honestly.

A lot of these states are proportional.  The difference between narrowly losing in AR, LA, and KY and winning by a few points is only going to be a few net delegates.  That's why the WTA states are so important.  Sanders basically has no shot because every state is proportional, making it really hard to make up a deficit, this isn't true on the Republican side.

[bballrox4717]

Get Rubio to drop out after Florida and have Kasich win Ohio. Rubio endorses Cruz. Cruz probably can't compete one-on-one against Trump in northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, so Kasich brings in voters who who likely just stay home in a Trump vs Cruz matchup to prevent Trump delegate majorities in these states. March 15th will likely be the worst day of Cruz's campaign though, because at this point March 15th gives Trump with a majority of the delegates, and Cruz will be just as far down as Sanders is at this point.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz's best path would probably involve Rubio dropping out after March 15th, and more of his voters going to Cruz than go to Trump.  But Cruz might be better off with Kasich staying in.  He could potentially win plurality victories in states that, on paper, look like a bad "fit" for him.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Very good question Devils, and some very interesting opinions.

The focus now for Cruz is to come up with a strategy to do exactly what you are saying:

(a) Ignore Trump and let CNN, CBS, FOX and ABC do the rest.
(b) Attack him on policy differences alone
(c) Attack him on personal issues and past business history
(d) All out attack
(e) Team up with another candidate and attack in unison.

I get the feeling from the last debate that Cruz has elected (a) and (b)

Its impossible to ignore Trump 100%. Clearly Cruz' numbers are now going to extract a hard response from "The Donald'.

Rubio has not done very well with strategy (c). But Marco did say some interesting things about Donald's mode of operation.

Rubio's psychological analysis of Trump is interesting. "As soon as Donald is challenged, he does this...."

That type of analysis of Trumps personality in front of an audience is very damaging. Followed by Megyn Kelly and Rubio both agreeing that Trump Uni was a D minus was a killer blow.

It showed that Donald was a pathological liar who will say anything to get what he wants.

It cost Rubio a lot of votes to attack him, but it is slowly having an effect.

A live 'liar' on the stage is not an attractive option for President.