What Would a Trump General Election Victory Look Like?
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  What Would a Trump General Election Victory Look Like?
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Author Topic: What Would a Trump General Election Victory Look Like?  (Read 1392 times)
Kevin
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« on: March 07, 2016, 05:25:55 PM »

Let's say that Trump continues his current winning streak and clinches the Republican nomination.

Trump then goes on to defeat Hillary in the General election in November.

What would a Trump victory map look like? What states would he pick up? From what I've read there is a lot of talk about him scrambling the map. Ex. Trump could potentially win states that usually lean Democratic while lose ones that are typically Republican.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2016, 05:28:05 PM »

Trump isn't gonna win the GE.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2016, 05:32:15 PM »

Two guys would kidnap Bernie Sanders drag him down to the ocean and throw him in.

Yup, you pretty much nailed it.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2016, 05:49:33 PM »

It wouldn't.
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cwt
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2016, 05:50:41 PM »



Trump 270, Clinton 268
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bilaps
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2016, 06:21:00 PM »

Hello everyone

I didn't see that there is some introduction thread, so first of all just want to say that I am not American, but hope you will maybe want some perspective from someone not from US but watching this election and US politics closely. And sorry if I don't spell something correctly.

Wanted to post here because I think it is not so unimaginable that Trump could beat Hillary in November. I don't see him winning Nevada, NM or Colorado so he would have to sweep big states Ohio, Florida and Virginia plus one of NH or Iowa, and I think he would win in NH almost certainly. I think Virginia would actually be the biggest problem there because of demographics. He could make play in Michigan, not to win it but to be close enough so democrats would have to spend some time and money there. So he could win in this scenario 270 to 268. Not likely but not impossible.

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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2016, 06:23:53 PM »

Trump might have a better chance to win PA than to win VA+NH.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2016, 06:24:58 PM »

There is no feasible path for Trump in the General.    Unless there is a HUGE political realignment going on right now that produces an entirely new map.

Otherwise he has 0% chance to win in Florida, Colorado, and Virginia.   Without those three states I don't see any possibility of a Trump win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2016, 06:36:07 PM »


I wouldnt say that he can still win by holding Clinton to 272 blue wall and winning NH & Iowa. Economy is still stalled
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standwrand
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2016, 06:43:14 PM »



Businessman Donald Trump/Senator Marco Rubio - 273 EV
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro - 265 EV

but this will never happen
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Dereich
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2016, 06:44:50 PM »

For Trump GE win, we need to think weirder, like sweeping the Midwest outside of IL while losing the rest of the Bush '04 ---> Obama '12 states.



I think this map is closest to it. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seem like easier targets than Virginia and Florida. For Florida, it's hard to improve on Romney's dominant performance in the Panhandle and I just don't see where Trump makes up the votes he'll lose in Miami and Orlando. The western counties in Virginia seem equally maxed out for Republicans and I doubt he'll gain many new Republican voters in the Beltway.
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win win
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2016, 07:03:52 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2016, 07:07:19 PM by dxu8888 »

Romney + FL and Ohio is 253

Why do people say he can't beat Clinton in FL? I think there is a great chance Trump wins FL and Ohio against Clinton. He is up in the latest head to head polls in both states.

Then the hard part, he then needs to win one of the following:
PA, VA + NH, VA + IA, VA + CO, NH + IA + WI, CO + IA + WI

Trump had +11 in a November poll in CO. He is ahead in the last 3 latest polls in FL and the latest one in OH.
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Dereich
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2016, 07:40:05 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2016, 07:46:27 PM by Dereich »

Romney + FL and Ohio is 253

Why do people say he can't beat Clinton in FL? I think there is a great chance Trump wins FL and Ohio against Clinton. He is up in the latest head to head polls in both states.

Then the hard part, he then needs to win one of the following:
PA, VA + NH, VA + IA, VA + CO, NH + IA + WI, CO + IA + WI

Trump had +11 in a November poll in CO. He is ahead in the last 3 latest polls in FL and the latest one in OH.

ANYBODY can get to 46 or 47 in a Florida poll. It's getting beyond that which has caused the FL Democrats so many problems in statewide elections and the Republicans problems in national ones. Again, the issue is that Trump just doesn't fit as well as Hillary does with the state. Romney did as well as anyone ever has among Panhandle whites so there's that much to gain there. Trump might keep up the same numbers or do slightly better with I-4 corridor whites. But there's no chance he keeps up regular Republican numbers among Cubans and other Hispanics. I also doubt he improves much with South Florida whites as well. Hillary also has a bit more appeal among older people and her appeal there shouldn't be immediately be counted out.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2016, 08:37:10 PM »


273 - 265
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2016, 08:42:37 PM »



317-221
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2016, 08:47:45 PM »


Someone is deluded and I know it isn't me. Wink
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2016, 08:49:12 PM »


I'm actually being quite generous to Hilldawg, Trump's status as a native son of the Northeast might be enough to swing NH and ME-02.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2016, 09:13:05 PM »

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Frodo
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2016, 11:05:51 PM »

Something like this:







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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2016, 11:35:06 PM »

TRUMP's strategy is to win the non-Iowa/Minnesota/Illinois Midwest - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Not a guarantee he'll win all of those, but for the sake of argument we'll assume it. We have to assume he'll lose Florida and Nevada because of Latinos. North Carolina is around 9% Latino, but should be okay for TRUMP as it was a Romney win, and TRUMP will likely make gains in both the white and black vote there. Iowa obviously hates him.

Virginia and Colorado are the toughest to figure out - The Latino vote is important in Colorado, but the white population there hates Hillary with a passion. Virginia depends on whether TRUMP can galvanize his voters in the more rural parts of the state, plus match Gillespie in Loudoun and Prince William, and prove he does have a great relationship with the blacks by holding down Clinton in Fairfax and Heinrico. Not easy, but not impossible.

However, the good news for TRUMP is that he doesn't need either to win. In fact, he doesn't need New Hampshire or ME-2 even though he probably wins them if he's winning MI and WI. This is 270 EV's exactly:


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James Bond 007
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« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2016, 11:41:03 PM »

http://


Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin would be the most I can see Trump getting if he did better than this map in a victory.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2016, 11:51:25 PM »

TRUMP's strategy is to win the non-Iowa/Minnesota/Illinois Midwest - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Not a guarantee he'll win all of those, but for the sake of argument we'll assume it. We have to assume he'll lose Florida and Nevada because of Latinos. North Carolina is around 9% Latino, but should be okay for TRUMP as it was a Romney win, and TRUMP will likely make gains in both the white and black vote there. Iowa obviously hates him.

Virginia and Colorado are the toughest to figure out - The Latino vote is important in Colorado, but the white population there hates Hillary with a passion. Virginia depends on whether TRUMP can galvanize his voters in the more rural parts of the state, plus match Gillespie in Loudoun and Prince William, and prove he does have a great relationship with the blacks by holding down Clinton in Fairfax and Heinrico. Not easy, but not impossible.

However, the good news for TRUMP is that he doesn't need either to win. In fact, he doesn't need New Hampshire or ME-2 even though he probably wins them if he's winning MI and WI. This is 270 EV's exactly:



How does he win Wisconsin and Michigan but not Iowa?
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James Bond 007
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« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2016, 11:54:19 PM »

If Chris Christie is his running mate or somehow Sanders gets the nomination, then I can see Trump winning New Jersey based on his tough guy image and proximity to the state. Against Hillary Clinton it's very unlikely unless Christie really takes the reigns campaigning there and is on the ticket.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2016, 11:56:38 PM »



Trump - 48%  279
Clinton - 48% 259
Johnson - 2%
Other - 2%
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MK
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« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2016, 12:21:46 AM »




With Kasich as VP
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