Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

On the exit polling, according to Edison Research’s website, they’re only covering MI and MS today:

http://www.edisonresearch.com/2016-exit-poll-coverage/

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Mississippi: polls close at 8pm ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/mississippi

Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in most of the state, but at 9pm ET in some of it
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/michigan

Idaho: polls close at 10pm ET in some of the state, and 11pm ET in some of it
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/id/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/idaho

Hawaii: caucuses run from 11pm to 1am ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/hi/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/hawaii

[chrisras]

Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

[Mr. Morden]

National weather map:



Detroit, MI:

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Jackson, MS:

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Boise, ID:

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[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Voted for Kasich, for the record. First ever vote! Needed to make sure that the rightful second place finisher had the necessary head of steam to make sure Cruz couldn't claim silver.

[Gass3268]

Voted for Kasich, for the record. First ever vote! Needed to make sure that the rightful second place finisher had the necessary head of steam to make sure Cruz couldn't claim silver.

#NeverCruz

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Voted for Kasich, for the record. First ever vote! Needed to make sure that the rightful second place finisher had the necessary head of steam to make sure Cruz couldn't claim silver.

#NeverCruz

Literally, though.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Michigan says they expect very high turnout.

[Classic Conservative]

Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

Ok, but I really can't seee Rubio winning Idaho and I doubt Kasich will win Michigan.

[7,052,770]

Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

If Trump loses Mississippi he won't win another state period.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

If Trump loses Mississippi he won't win another state period.

Trump will easily win Mississippi. Last poll (even though it's pre-ST) had Trump at 41%, Cruz 17% Rubio 16% Kasich 8% with Carson taking 5%

[Classic Conservative]

Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

If Trump loses Mississippi he won't win another state period.

Who are you going to vote for Damar, Hillary, Bernie or Willie Wilson???

[Donnie]

Voted for Kasich, for the record. First ever vote! Needed to make sure that the rightful second place finisher had the necessary head of steam to make sure Cruz couldn't claim silver.

Trump will get min. 42% in MS and min. 35% in MI. This will be enough for win
in this two!

[Del Tachi]

Mississippi Prediction:

• Donald Trump - 41,5%
• Ted Cruz - 30,3%
• Marco Rubio - 13,9%
• John Kasich - 8,8%

[yankeesfan]

Mississippi is going to be:

Trump/Cruz 43
Rubio 8
Kasich 5

[PeteB]

Even though the most likely outcome is that Trump carries MI and MS and Cruz takes ID and HI, we could actually have 4 winners tonight (Trump takes MS, Kasich takes MI, Cruz takes ID and Rubio captures HI - he seems to do well on the islands )!

[EliteLX]

Voted Kasich happily.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

One question, where does everyone get the notion Rubio will win Hawaii? If anything the Hawaii GOP should easily be pro-Trump

[The Free North]

Think Kasich comes close to Trump in MI...probably wont be enough to close the gap but it will surprise many. Rubio will do very poorly.

Cruz will do better than expected in MS, but Trump will win comfortably

Cruz will win in Idaho, perhaps quite easily

Hawaii is tough...Romney beat Santorum because of huge turnout from a Mormon precinct (Romney only won by 2k votes). I could see both Cruz and Rubio doing well here, I don't think Trump wins.

[Illiniwek]

Middle left edge of the palm!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

What areas of MI will be better for a Cruz/Kasich over a Trump? I'm assuming the Lower Peninsula.

[Illiniwek]

What areas of MI will be better for a Cruz/Kasich over a Trump? I'm assuming the Lower Peninsula.

Cruz should win Ottawa County, and could do well in a lot of these green Santorum counties. Kasich should do well in suburban Detroit and Washtenaw County. I think Kent County will be very interesting. Cruz has the support of the Dutch protestants, the local congressman Justin Amash, and, in my opinion, the very influential Van Andel family. Rubio has the support of many suburban moderates, the neighboring, more conservative-establishment congressman Bill Huizenga, and the even more influential DeVos family. Trump, of course, will have his base of support too. So I will be watching Kent to see who might have an edge.

[win win]

Trump will not win a state tonight.  Mark it down.  Kasich will win Michigan.  Cruz will win Mississippi.  I have Rubio winning Idaho and Hawaii.

Well if you are so confident, you should go play the betting markets. They have Trump as a 90% favorite in Michigan and 85% favorite in Mississippi.

[The Mikado]

So...no one's going to be crazy enough to stay up for Hawaii. Right?...Right?

[Nhoj]

So...no one's going to be crazy enough to stay up for Hawaii. Right?...Right?

Results might be coming in when I get off work If that counts.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So...no one's going to be crazy enough to stay up for Hawaii. Right?...Right?

I live in Oregon so i will likely get those results at 9:30-10:30 which is early for me since I sleep at a little past midnight usually