Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Alcon]

This is a much higher proportion of late deciders than previous primaries.  Interesting, although I think a good bit of that may be Rubio's collapse.  It'll be interesting to see if the early decider group is unusually pro-Trump this time.

[Lief 🗽]

It so odd that Kasich is out-lasted Bush, Walker, Christie and many others that were said to be in his way and now could make a serious play as one of the last four standing. For three years I was like one of two Kasich supporters on here and today it was not him that I voted for.

So I kind of have mixed feelings as a result of having been for Kasich for so long and be proven right on that score of him possibly having an impact, while at the same time having thrown in with another candidate and wanting to see them succeed.

Ah, remember the days where we were debating on whether Perry or Kasich would get that coveted last spot in the first Fox debate?

And I was praying, hoping Kasich would get in, have a big breakthrough and then go on to become the frontrunner.

Isn't one of your big issues immigration? I'd have though Kasich was too dovish for you on that.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties will pretty much determine who wins MI.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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Ah, remember the days where we were debating on whether Perry or Kasich would get that coveted last spot in the first Fox debate?
[/quote]


And I was praying, hoping Kasich would get in, have a big breakthrough and then go on to become the frontrunner.
[/quote]

Isn't one of your big issues immigration? I'd have though Kasich was too dovish for you on that.
[/quote]

That was back in August

Kasich had an A rating for his Congressional record from NumbersUSA and his approach to the issue in this election was one of the reasons my support for him began to slide in the Fall and into the winter. I expected him to at least take a secure the borders first approach (basically Rubio's present faux position on the issue, he didn't do that). In December, I made a post on the other forum explaining why Kasich lost my support and it was a variety of factors, many of which was his choice to not do more to stand out and break with the establishment on many issues. I said that he basically opted to be a Jeb Bush clone, of which there were already three others in the race at that time.

[The Free North]

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https://twitter.com/skepticalsports/status/707332660914429956

[Mr. Morden]

[Broken System]

Wow, great news for Kasich with those Independent numbers.

[The Free North]

Anyone have a point of reference to compare this to other primaries?

6% of dems is probably irrelevant but seems a bit high, especially considering there is a dem primary going on at the same time.

[Matty]

great news for kasich

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties will pretty much determine who wins MI.

A lot of people said Nova would be the deciding region in VA and it wasn't. It was actually Stafford and Clarke, both of which Trump won by ~3%-4%.

The median of the GOP is going to be slightly different from that of a general election. So Oakland and Macomb are important, but I would also look at some more counties further out from Detroit as well like Livingston and St. Clair.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493407

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[Matty]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

there you go again.....

[Maxwell]

Wow, great news for Kasich with those Independent numbers.

yes - he generally doubles his Republican numbers with Independents.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

there you go again.....

It's simple evidence, Trump does better with Independents.

[Gass3268]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

there you go again.....

Trump has dominated with Independents where ever they have been allowed to vote. 6% Democrat is probably a small net Kasich gain.

[Maxwell]

Now I may be wrong, but TRUMP tends to match his numbers with Independents and Republicans. Rubio underperforms with independents, Kasich massively overperforms, and Cruz narrowly underperforms.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone have a point of reference to compare this to other primaries?

New Hampshire was 55% Republicans, 42% Indies, 3% Dems.  Trump did exactly the same with both groups, but Kasich did better with Indies than Republicans, while Rubio for example was stronger with Republicans.

Virginia was 65% Republicans and 29%, Indies, 6% Dems.  In that case, Trump was 37% among Republicans and 29% among Indies, while Kasich was 15% among Indies and 6% among Republicans.  Rubio was about the same with both groups in that case.

[Classic Conservative]

Dana Bash said that Austin Barbour voted for Cruz. Lol

[Mr. Morden]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

there you go again.....

Trump has dominated with Independents where ever they have been allowed to vote.

In New Hampshire, Trump did the same among Republicans and Indies.  In Virginia, he was at 37% among Republicans and 29% among Indies.  I'll have to check on other states.

And Kasich overperforms among Indies everywhere.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, just checked two more states: In Georgia, Trump did the same among Republicans and Indies.  In Alabama, he did better among Republicans than Indies.  Is there a state where Trump did better with Indies than Republicans?

[Matty]

OK, just checked two more states: In Georgia, Trump did the same among Republicans and Indies.  In Alabama, he did better among Republicans than Indies.  Is there a state where Trump did better with Indies than Republicans?

so if that trend continues tonight, what does it likely mean?

[gespb19]

Dana Bash said that Austin Barbour voted for Cruz. Lol

Wow!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

Don't count on it.  They may be voting Trump to get a weaker GE candidate.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Just voted for Kasich. I legitimately didn't decide which party's primary I would participate in until I checked the party selection box, which was the last thing I did. It was Kasich or Sanders, and it came down to which one I thought my vote would influence more. PredictIt had Kasich slightly higher, and I'm in a more Democratic district, so I figured my individual vote had a heigher weight intra-district on the GOP side (for delegate purposes). Never before have I been so undecided.

Decided to switch the avatar considering I was pretty much an independent today.