Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Shout out to Nate Silver who gave Clinton a 99% chance of winning Michigan.

Don't be too harsh. He was only as wrong as every other pollster. But given that his schtick was being better than everyone else, yeah.. he kinda blew it tonight.

[This account no longer in use.]

This would actually only result in an even split of delegates and Sanders is still way behind in delegates. Clinton has over 1000 delegates all together and with this being a delegate game, even if Sanders does win Michigan, he won't get a delegate lead.

Don't they give out delegates by congressional district?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's getting tight again in Wayne!

[Beet]

This would actually only result in an even split of delegates and Sanders is still way behind in delegates. Clinton has over 1000 delegates all together and with this being a delegate game, even if Sanders does win Michigan, he won't get a delegate lead.

The problem is, Michigan throws into question Hillary's northern black support, plus polls in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri on March 15. If Sanders takes just one or two states that day, his narrative going into late March and April will be strong.

[Shadows]

Deskjet maybe right, don't get ahead, Detroit is barely in & Wayne too will report a lot. Sanders may sweep the state but may end up losing like Mass.

[Pyro]

Officially 5 point lead for Sanders. 51.6-46.6

[RightBehind]

Decision Desk called it for Hillary, even with her down.

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/dem/president/michigan/

Where is this information coming from?

They are looking at what is left in Detroit.

I'll believe when I see it.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

#2008NHredux

[yourelection]

This would actually only result in an even split of delegates and Sanders is still way behind in delegates. Clinton has over 1000 delegates all together and with this being a delegate game, even if Sanders does win Michigan, he won't get a delegate lead.

Hillary will most likely come away with a net plus in delegates over Sanders, but the smack of losing Michigan will sting.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Sanders has a near 20k vote lead now.

Doing the math in my head, if Clinton wins with only 66% of the vote in Wayne, it wont be enough, especially if Sanders does well in the West.

Are you accounting for Genesee?

[Shadows]

Sanders has a near 20k vote lead now.

Doing the math in my head, if Clinton wins with only 66% of the vote in Wayne, it wont be enough, especially if Sanders does well in the West.

Dude Detroit is barely in, who knows it can give her 15-20K. Let us not jump ahead. This is a very hard battle!

[indysaff]

This would actually only result in an even split of delegates and Sanders is still way behind in delegates. Clinton has over 1000 delegates all together and with this being a delegate game, even if Sanders does win Michigan, he won't get a delegate lead.

He'll have the momentum going forward, and if he ends up winning MI then that means his national numbers are really climbing like new nat polls have shown.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Yea i'm calling this for Sanders now...WOW....

[Mr. Morden]

Harry Enten from 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-14633319

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[Gass3268]

Kent County (Grand Rapids) starting to come in big for Sanders.

[DrScholl]

This would actually only result in an even split of delegates and Sanders is still way behind in delegates. Clinton has over 1000 delegates all together and with this being a delegate game, even if Sanders does win Michigan, he won't get a delegate lead.

The problem is, Michigan throws into question Hillary's northern black support, plus polls in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri on March 15. If Sanders takes just one or two states that day, his narrative going into late March and April will be strong.

That's narrative, but in terms of delegates he is still far behind. It's hard to overcome a nearly 200 delegate deficit.

[Asian Nazi]

Yea i'm calling this for Sanders now...WOW....

lol cute

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sanders leading in macomb now wow

[Shadows]

Sanders up 21K, safe to say all polls showing 15-20-25% loss are officially junk. Even if he loses, it will be small.

And this looks good for Ohio, maybe he can win there & pull a good result (close) in Illinois, Missouri

[Beet]

Flint is within 8 points. Macomb is within 2 points. Wayne has been coming in for a while since 9 PM, and it isn't closing. Meanwhile, Grand Rapids is a 30 point Sanders lead. Plus, there are exit polls. I'm calling it for Sanders.

This is absurd. The biggest polling failure since 1948, and in 1948, the excuse was they stopped polling six weeks before the election.

This may be the moment when it's realized that whatever pollsters are doing to compensate for the migration away from landlines isn't working.

Either way, this confirms all my worst nightmares. And people say I'm too pessimistic.

[cowboys5xsbs]

HARRY ENTEN
I’m looking on the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.

[Asian Nazi]

Harry Enten from 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-14633319

You must be logged in to read this quote.

this so much

[Beet]

HARRY ENTEN
I’m looking on the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.

That was "earlier this hour". A lot has come in since then, and it's not closing.

[Gass3268]

Macomb County flipped to Sanders. Only 23% in so far.

[The Free North]

Leaning Sanders at the moment barring the black areas of Wayne voting for Hillary in dramatically higher #s than the exits showed.

Flint is more than offset by Sanders strength in Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids.