Hawaii caucus, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi primary bellwether counties
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  Hawaii caucus, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi primary bellwether counties
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Author Topic: Hawaii caucus, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi primary bellwether counties  (Read 409 times)
Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« on: March 08, 2016, 07:26:22 PM »

Hawaii--

Dems have data only for 2004 and 2008 on Atlas. Hawaii, Honolulu and Kauai are bellwethers, with Maui having voted for Kucinich in 2004.

For the GOP, only data for 2012 exists on the Atlas. Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui are bellwethers, with Hawaii having voted for Paul.

Idaho since 1992. A county had to have voted for Obama in both the caucus and primary in 2012 to qualify--

Dems--

Bannock
Bingham
Blaine
Boundary
Camas
Canyon
Gem
Jerome
Kootenai
Lincoln
Nez Perce
Owyhee
Twin Falls
Valley
Washington   

GOP--

Ada
Adams
Bannock
Bear Lake
Bingham
Blaine
Boise   
Bonneville   
Butte
Canyon
Caribou
Cassia
Clark   
Custer
Elmore
Franklin
Fremont
Gem
Gooding
Jefferson
Jerome
Lemhi
Lincoln
Madison
Minidoka
Oneida
Payette
Power
Teton
Twin Falls
Valley   

Michigan--

For the Dems, these are the only counties that didn't vote for the winner in every primary since 1992--

Alger
Charlevoix
Emmet
Kalamazoo
Grand Traverse
Leelanau
Marquette
Washtenaw


For the GOP, these counties did vote for the winner in every primary since 1992--

Antrim
Charlevoix   
Cheboygan
Eaton
Emmet
Grand Traverse
Huron
Ingham
Iosco   
Leelanau
Macomb
Midland
Oakland
Presque Isle
Roscommon
Saginaw
Washtenaw
Wayne   

Mississippi--

For the Dems, only 2008 hasn't been a clean county sweep since 1992. These are the counties that haven't voted for the winner each time--

Alcorn
Benton
Calhoun
DeSoto
George
Greene
Hancock
Itawamba
Jones
Lamar
Lee
Pearl River   
Perry   
Pontotoc
Prentiss
Smith
Stone
Tippah
Tishomingo
Union
Webster

For the GOP, these counties have voted for the winner each time since 1992--
   
Attala   
Benton   
Calhoun   
Chickasaw   
Choctaw   
Clarke      
Franklin   
George   
Hancock   
Itawamba   
Kemper   
Lauderdale
Lee   
Marshall
Monroe
Montgomery
Neshoba
Newton
Pearl River
Pontotoc
Prentiss
Scott   
Sharkey
Simpson
Stone
Tallahatchie
Tate
Tippah
Tishomingo
Union
Webster
Wilkinson
Winston   
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2016, 04:50:57 PM »

Michigan--

For the Dems, these are the only counties that didn't vote for the winner in every primary since 1992--

Alger
Charlevoix
Emmet
Kalamazoo
Grand Traverse
Leelanau
Marquette
Washtenaw


For the GOP, these counties did vote for the winner in every primary since 1992--

Antrim
Charlevoix   
Cheboygan
Eaton
Emmet
Grand Traverse
Huron
Ingham
Iosco   
Leelanau
Macomb
Midland
Oakland
Presque Isle
Roscommon
Saginaw
Washtenaw
Wayne   
All MI counties on the Dem list voted Sanders in '16. All MI counties on the GOP list vote Trump in '16 except Washtenaw, which voted Kasich.
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Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2016, 07:15:57 PM »

Michigan--

For the Dems, these are the only counties that didn't vote for the winner in every primary since 1992--

Alger
Charlevoix
Emmet
Kalamazoo
Grand Traverse
Leelanau
Marquette
Washtenaw


For the GOP, these counties did vote for the winner in every primary since 1992--

Antrim
Charlevoix   
Cheboygan
Eaton
Emmet
Grand Traverse
Huron
Ingham
Iosco   
Leelanau
Macomb
Midland
Oakland
Presque Isle
Roscommon
Saginaw
Washtenaw
Wayne   
All MI counties on the Dem list voted Sanders in '16. All MI counties on the GOP list vote Trump in '16 except Washtenaw, which voted Kasich.

So every county that voted for Clinton will join the above list as non-bellwethers (I listed the non-bellwethers for the Dems since the list was much shorter than the bellwethers).
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