What Republicans must do and must do NOW (user search)
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  What Republicans must do and must do NOW (search mode)
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« on: March 10, 2016, 02:48:11 AM »

I disagree with your assessment, BRTD.  As long as Rubio stays in, the more likely he deprives Cruz of critical wins in WTA states.  Cruz actually does quite well against Trump 1-on-1; Michigan exit polls had him 43-41, with the rest choosing no one.  I think Cruz would easily beat Trump pretty much everywhere west of the Mississippi in a 2-person race, even in California.

There aren't many actual WTA states though. The only big ones are Florida (which may be a lost cause) and Ohio (where Kasich is clearly strongest.)

Many of the states left are WTA by congressional district, if not WTA statewide.  The latest polls from ABC and NBC that test a Cruz vs. Trump 2-man race have Cruz winning nationally by double digits.  It's only because of Kasich and Rubio being in the race that Trump is ahead of Cruz nationally.  Sure, New York is the one big case where Cruz would benefit from Kasich and Rubio staying in, because Trump is most likely going to win it regardless, and with four people in the race they might keep him under 50%.  But outside of that, I think Cruz would benefit immensely from Kasich and Rubio dropping out.
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2016, 02:51:14 AM »

Dude, Cruz is not going to win a majority of delegates either. His route to the nomination is the same as Rubio's, Kasich's, and even Romney's: brokered convention.

If Kasich and Rubio dropped out of the race today, I'd give Cruz at least a decent shot at ultimately catching up to Trump in the popular vote, if not pledged delegates, which would help his cause at the convention, convincing people that he has at least as much of a "mandate" from the voters as Trump.  Trump's only ahead of Cruz 35%-29% in the popular vote so far, and (slightly) less than half the country has voted, so it's hardly impossible.
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