In terms of having a chance of beating the Dems in November, your above diagram is right on. In terms of having a chance to be the Republican nominee, the diagram is backwards. Go figure.
Point being, it doesn't really matter if it's Trump or Cruz, neither has a reasonable chance to beat Clinton in the general election. I suspect Trump would lose in a bigger landslide, though he may pick up a state or two that doesn't often go R in his best-case scenario. Cruz would just be a straight 2008 or 2012, no surprises.
