How exactly can Trump win Pennsylvania against Hillary?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:52:18 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  How exactly can Trump win Pennsylvania against Hillary?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How exactly can Trump win Pennsylvania against Hillary?  (Read 3728 times)
win win
dxu8888
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 10, 2016, 01:28:03 AM »

I'm looking at the election odds for a Trump/Hillary matchup and the odds are about 25-30% Trump wins. I don't see him winning without winning PA or VA. How exactly will Trump win PA? "He won't" is not an acceptable answer.
Logged
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,852


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2016, 01:32:31 AM »

Nope.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2016, 01:36:42 AM »

I'm looking at the election odds for a Trump/Hillary matchup and the odds are about 25-30% Trump wins. I don't see him winning without winning PA or VA. How exactly will Trump win PA? "He won't" is not an acceptable answer.

He can't.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2016, 01:48:53 AM »

Turning out moderate, anti-trade rust belt whites in large numbers.
Logged
Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,659
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2016, 01:50:59 AM »

Turning out moderate, anti-trade rust belt whites in large numbers.

What does an anti-trade rust-belt white look like?
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2016, 08:13:05 AM »

He can't. End of story.
Logged
angus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,423
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2016, 09:19:23 AM »

I'm looking at the election odds for a Trump/Hillary matchup and the odds are about 25-30% Trump wins. I don't see him winning without winning PA or VA. How exactly will Trump win PA? "He won't" is not an acceptable answer.

You don't win by being positive, you win by being negative.  Successful Presidential candidates have known this for at least fifty, and possibly for over two hundred, years.  To win PA Trump will have to go hard on Clinton, and better yet link her to Governor Wolf, who currently has a 33% approval rating according to an F&M poll from January, or 41% according to Quinnipiac.  Either way, he's getting blamed (probably unfairly) for a number of the state's problems, including the budget impasse.  All Pennsylvanians are aware of this problem, although whom they blame varies.  Clinton, of course, has nothing to do with this problem, but she is a Democrat like Wolf, along with Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane, who was charged with perjury, saw her law license suspended and now is facing possible impeachment proceedings in the House.  What Trump wants to do is attempt a strategy of assigning guilt by association.  Among casual voters, this could work.

Also, support for medical marijuana has increased dramatically in Pennsylvania of late.  One poll showed 90% support in PA.  I don't see Clinton going there, and she has been very reluctant to endorse the program, saying that the "jury is still out" on whether it has any benefit.  Trump could trot it out big.  He has recently given his unequivocal support for medical marijuana.  In February he said to O'Reilly that "I know people that have serious problems and it really, really does help them."

Of course it's a long shot, but that's how I'd advise Trump regarding Pennsylvania.






Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2016, 09:33:45 AM »

He'd have to make massive inroads in the Philly suburbs.    The rest of the state seems pretty much deadlocked one way or another.   

I doubt it's really possible though.
Logged
angus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,423
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2016, 01:22:47 PM »

He'd have to make massive inroads in the Philly suburbs.

Well, he already has the beginnings of a decent mullet...

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,781
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2016, 01:37:13 PM »

If Pa went 4 points in 2000 in a neutral cycle, and this may or may nnot be one or D lean year, Trump isnt gonna win Pa. Wolf is a better than average Gov. Trump should focus on Iowa & FL.
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,029
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2016, 01:45:02 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2016, 01:48:38 PM by EliteLX »

He has literally no feasible possibility to win a majority over Hillary Clinton in statewide cast votes. He'll struggle hard even breaking 3-4% margins, and that's with a flawless campaign, which we know his entire campaign will be a walking meltdown.

Please, please move on already.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2016, 01:55:59 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2016, 02:07:15 PM by ProudModerate2 »

Turning out moderate, anti-trade rust belt whites in large numbers.

What does an anti-trade rust-belt white look like?

The ones trump seeks, look like this ....


Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,929
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2016, 02:05:00 PM »

The problem for Trump is Pennsylvania is that the population in the areas that have shifted Republican is rapidly decreasing and he is not exactly a great candidate for SEPA where the swing votes are.
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,750
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2016, 02:11:17 PM »

Trump is the perfect candidate for southeast PA. You should see the Yaks over here! It's beautiful! Like nothing I've ever seen before

Not saying he will win. Warning not to make definitive statements about 60% chance events lest you want to look really, really dumb.
Logged
Stockdale for Veep
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 810


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2016, 03:05:48 PM »

Voter ID suppression.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,999
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2016, 03:10:46 PM »

Turning out moderate, anti-trade rust belt whites in large numbers.

Ah, what a great (declining, already small) group to base our entire party around!
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2016, 03:14:19 PM »

Massively increased turnout in Appalachia. There is no other way.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2016, 03:19:38 PM »

Run a Bush 1988-style campaign to attract suburban voters.
Logged
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,022


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2016, 03:38:58 PM »

He won't win PA.

He does have a chance with OH and FL...he could take both. But even then, he wouldn't win. He'd need to win some combination of VA, IA, CO, NC, WI, MN, and NV in order to get to 270--in addition to OH and FL.

PA won't happen for him. OH and FL might go to him.

But VA, IA, WI, MN, and NV are all likely Hillary states at this point, with CO also being a good possibility for her. Trump could take NC, but I really doubt his chances in the other states I mentioned.

The absolute most optimistic electoral scenario for Trump would see him winning 262 electoral votes. That's even with him taking OH and FL.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2016, 03:41:36 PM »

He does have a chance with OH and FL...

I just can't see how that is possible if Hispanic turnout sees a pretty heavy bump, which looks like that might be the case. The FL Hispanic electorate is growing very fast and has been moving heavily towards Democrats in recent years - If Romney couldn't win it in 2012, it's just hard to see Trump winning it now in a better economy with likely record non-white turnout / Democratic support.
Logged
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,022


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2016, 03:44:04 PM »

He does have a chance with OH and FL...

I just can't see how that is possible if Hispanic turnout sees a pretty heavy bump, which looks like that might be the case. The FL Hispanic electorate is growing very fast and has been moving heavily towards Democrats in recent years - If Romney couldn't win it in 2012, it's just hard to see Trump winning it now in a better economy with likely record non-white turnout / Democratic support.

Yea, you're probably right.

I was trying to giving Trump the best chances he'd have, and I think he *could* win FL, but the chances are probably really low. Just not as low as PA.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,714


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2016, 03:48:32 PM »

Run it up in the west/central, make major inroads in the Scranton area, and hold pat in the Philly suburbs. Give Trump about a 5-10 point swing from 2012 outside the 9 closest counties to Philly while holding Philly constant, and he can barely edge out Clinton. If turnout increases out west and turnout declines in Philly proper, it becomes easier. However, if Trump is going to even come close to winning PA, the national mood would be such that you might see a swing toward Trump even in the Philly region simply by moving the national needle toward a 50-50 race.

It is possible for a competitive Trump to take PA, but it's a tight needle to thread.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2016, 03:53:29 PM »

Run up the numbers in the "T" area of Pennsylvania and by increasing his share of the vote in the AA communities in Philadelphia, etc.
Logged
White Trash
Southern Gothic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,910


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 10, 2016, 03:58:14 PM »

Pennsyltucky is going to be a bit of padding for him without a doubt. If he can continue this momentum he has with the working class and those in industrial areas, he has a good shot of swinging parts of Pittsburgh. Has he said anything specifically about labor unions yet?
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,750
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 10, 2016, 04:18:28 PM »

It's truly incredible to see people saying he has 0 chance in a state he has led in during the past 6 months when we are 8 months from an election, when he hasn't started a general election campaign, and when he hasn't campaigned in the state for the primary yet. It's unthinkable to see such an inability to critically think! Pathetic really. I have little expectation of him winning it, but the chance of it happening is a significant probability.

Don't ever go into options trading is my advice for y'all. The punditry field may welcome you though you may not make it any better.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 13 queries.