Mr. Illini maps the 2016 Illinois primary

[Mr. Illini]

I am eagerly awaiting the returns from the Illinois primary this week. Fresh new material to map out. I'll be posting the maps here.

Stay tuned!

[Hydera]

Predictions?

GOP Race: Trump dominates rural illinois and Cook county, meanwhile has a poorer showing in the surrounding suburban counties but the split with cruz, kasich, rubio allows him to narrowly carry all of them. Cruz might have a better showing with rural southern Illinois.

Dem Race: Hillary dominates Cook County due to minorities and suburbs but probably does bad in Rural illinois and the deindustrializing cities along with Urbana county, DeKalb County, Springfield County where Sanders will do great for obvious reasons.

[Mr. Illini]

Predictions?

GOP Race: Trump dominates rural illinois and Cook county, meanwhile has a poorer showing in the surrounding suburban counties but the split with cruz, kasich, rubio allows him to narrowly carry all of them. Cruz might have a better showing with rural southern Illinois.

Dem Race: Hillary dominates Cook County due to minorities and suburbs but probably does bad in Rural illinois and the deindustrializing cities along with Urbana county, DeKalb County, Springfield County where Sanders will do great for obvious reasons.

GOP side: Trump will indeed dominate downstate except that Cruz will carry a couple of evangelical-heavy counties in the NW. Trump won't dominate in Cook County, as there is a good amount of suburban vote there. I anticipate Trump in the low 40s in Cook, winning the county by ~10%. Kasich will be competitive also in the collars, but Trump will win them by ~5-7%. Kasich might contend in DuPage.

Dem side: Hillary will win Cook by ~70-30 margin. She will win Lake and DuPage collars ~55-45. She will also get St. Louis suburban counties St. Claire and Madison. Sanders will perform very well in university counties (Champaign, McLean, Jackson, etc). Like in MI, he will do well in the rural portions of the county.

[RFayette]

Predictions?

GOP Race: Trump dominates rural illinois and Cook county, meanwhile has a poorer showing in the surrounding suburban counties but the split with cruz, kasich, rubio allows him to narrowly carry all of them. Cruz might have a better showing with rural southern Illinois.

Dem Race: Hillary dominates Cook County due to minorities and suburbs but probably does bad in Rural illinois and the deindustrializing cities along with Urbana county, DeKalb County, Springfield County where Sanders will do great for obvious reasons.

GOP side: Trump will indeed dominate downstate except that Cruz will carry a couple of evangelical-heavy counties in the NW. Trump won't dominate in Cook County, as there is a good amount of suburban vote there. I anticipate Trump in the low 40s in Cook, winning the county by ~10%. Kasich will be competitive also in the collars, but Trump will win them by ~5-7%. Kasich might contend in DuPage.

Dem side: Hillary will win Cook by ~70-30 margin. She will win Lake and DuPage collars ~55-45. She will also get St. Louis suburban counties St. Claire and Madison. Sanders will perform very well in university counties (Champaign, McLean, Jackson, etc). Like in MI, he will do well in the rural portions of the county.

Why is Cook going to give Trump a greater margin than the collars?  I'd presume that the upscale white suburbs would be the harshest against him.  Is it because there's still white working class GOPers in parts of Chicago?

[Mr. Illini]

Predictions?

GOP Race: Trump dominates rural illinois and Cook county, meanwhile has a poorer showing in the surrounding suburban counties but the split with cruz, kasich, rubio allows him to narrowly carry all of them. Cruz might have a better showing with rural southern Illinois.

Dem Race: Hillary dominates Cook County due to minorities and suburbs but probably does bad in Rural illinois and the deindustrializing cities along with Urbana county, DeKalb County, Springfield County where Sanders will do great for obvious reasons.

GOP side: Trump will indeed dominate downstate except that Cruz will carry a couple of evangelical-heavy counties in the NW. Trump won't dominate in Cook County, as there is a good amount of suburban vote there. I anticipate Trump in the low 40s in Cook, winning the county by ~10%. Kasich will be competitive also in the collars, but Trump will win them by ~5-7%. Kasich might contend in DuPage.

Dem side: Hillary will win Cook by ~70-30 margin. She will win Lake and DuPage collars ~55-45. She will also get St. Louis suburban counties St. Claire and Madison. Sanders will perform very well in university counties (Champaign, McLean, Jackson, etc). Like in MI, he will do well in the rural portions of the county.

Why is Cook going to give Trump a greater margin than the collars?  I'd presume that the upscale white suburbs would be the harshest against him.  Is it because there's still white working class GOPers in parts of Chicago?

Few in the city, but SW Cook is white and more working class. This spills into Will County, which Trump will do well in.

Trump will be weak in northern Cook, which is richer. Kasich will see good numbers there. Lake County might run similarly to Cook for Trump because it also has some relatively lower-middle class in the NW portion of the county, but I think that DuPage will be worse for Trump. DuPage is richer and more consistently suburban throughout.

[ElectionsGuy]

I provide that you know more about Illinois than I do, but I highly doubt Clinton will get a 70/30 split out of Cook. Sanders got 31% of the black vote out of Michigan, and there's not much reason to think he can't do just as good or almost as good in Illinois. And that's just the black vote, there's some white portions which will probably favor Bernie (the southwest of the county, as you explained for Trump) even though much of the upscale whites will go for Clinton. If I had to guess, it'll probably be more like 60/40.

[dpmapper]

Trump's best districts downstate will be 12, 15, 17 in some order. 

In Chicagoland, he'll do well in 1, 2, 3, 11 (southern Cook/Will).  5, 6, 7, 9 will be his worst statewide. 

[Illiniwek]

Can't wait to see your work! Thanks for doing it!

[Mr. Illini]

To paraphrase the late Pauline Kael, "How could Trump have won? I only know one person who voted for him."

Anyway, Trump declared victor in Illinois. Dem race too close to call.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Hillary really underperformed in Cook. That's a Detroit-level performance. Jesus. Also surprised that DuPage with 1/3 in is going for Bernie.


Here's hoping St. Clair vote dumps for Hillary and puts her over the top!

[Mr. Illini]

Illinois called for Hillary. Bernie took all collar counties but Lake. Quite impressive.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Hello yes I'd like to place a special order for neighborhood or precinct results of the South Side, specifically Chatham, South Shore, Hyde Park, Bronzeville, and the Near South Side if possible please

[Green Line]

Hello yes I'd like to place a special order for neighborhood or precinct results of the South Side, specifically Chatham, South Shore, Hyde Park, Bronzeville, and the Near South Side if possible please

I was looking for them too :/
I checked the Cook County election website and it says they should have come up today, but they're not there.

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago maps will come once my schedule dies down in about a week.

For now, Lake County has helped me out considerably this year by providing maps of their own. I didn't like the color scheme etc on their map, so I have altered it. Enjoy.

Lake County, IL Precinct Level in the 2016 Democratic Primary

The map is not shaded by margin

[Mr. Illini]

Notice that Hillary was strongest in the SE corner and then up along the lake extending to the border.

In the SE corner, we have large Jewish populations. Wealthy Jewish townships such as Highland Park and Deerfield and then more middle class (but still heavily Jewish) Buffalo Grove. Along the lake north of HP we have wealthy WASPy Lake Forest and Lake Bluff, which went for Clinton. Then we have black-heavy North Chicago, Hispanic-heavy Waukegan, and diverse Zion.

Bernie's best territory was in the NW quadrant of the county. This area is largely white and middle class. This region also has areas with sizable Hispanic populations, where we see Bernie did well in as well. These are towns such as Wauconda, Antioch, Grayslake, Round Lake.

In the central region/rest of the county, we see more of a mix. We see a bit of a trend where Bernie was winning the towns within the townships and Hillary was winning the wealthier outskirts in areas such as Lake Zurich, Libertyville, Mundelein, and Gurnee.

[Boston Bread]

A lot of people questioned the NV exit poll showing Bernie up with hispanics. Based on precinct data, do you think the exit polls showing Bernie tied with hispanics in IL were accurate? I figure some minorities had to go his way if Cook was so close.

[Mr. Illini]

I do think so. We see him winning Hispanic areas on this map. We will see what my Chicago map shows on the west side.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

A lot of people questioned the NV exit poll showing Bernie up with hispanics. Based on precinct data, do you think the exit polls showing Bernie tied with hispanics in IL were accurate? I figure some minorities had to go his way if Cook was so close.

I saw ward data and Bernie took almost every single Hispanic-plurality ward. He most likely won the Hispanic vote outright in Illinois.

Hillary swept virtually all of the black-plurality wards 2-1, while the white-plurality downtown and wealthy white wards immediately to the north along the lakefront went to Hillary by varying margins. The rest of the white-plurality wards in the city went to Bernie.

Like the 2015 mayoral race, Chicago is still heavily divided by race and class.

[King of Kensington]

Working class whites and African Americans are usually at loggerheads politically, but it's interesting to see the former voting "to the left" of the latter (though not sure what extent that holds up if we include whites voting for Trump).

[Mr. Illini]

Starting to get around to some of these maps.

Dem Primary in Cook. The city is mapped by ward and the suburbs by township.




And with annotation. Summarizing, Bernie won in Hispanic areas and middle class white areas. Hillary won in black areas and wealthy white areas.



And just the city. Always a beautiful map.



More to come.

[Miles]

FWIW, you may like my maps over here.

[Boston Bread]

No wards were >70% either way? If so that's much less polarization than expected.

[Mr. Illini]

FWIW, you may like my maps over here.

Hadn't seen them. Awesome stuff!

Especially for getting a closer look at places like Evanston. Despite losing the town, I thought Bernie would would have done well among the latte liberals downtown and the champagne socialists in the NW of the town. He got killed there.

Also incredible how well Trump did in the far NW of the city (up by Rosemont). Only area of the city that I would consider to have a substantial number of Republicans. Would have expected a better Kasich performance there.

No wards were >70% either way? If so that's much less polarization than expected.

Nope. Indeed surprising. Clinton weaker among Chicago blacks than elsewhere it seems.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

No wards were >70% either way? If so that's much less polarization than expected.

Nope. Indeed surprising. Clinton weaker among Chicago blacks than elsewhere it seems.

Apparently, in Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois, blacks went to Hillary "only" 2:1 as opposed to 80%+ in most of the South.

Also btw, final exit polls had Bernie win the Hispanic vote in Illinois 50% - 49%. Interesting factoid there.

[Mr. Illini]

The Lake County map shaded properly