Mr. Illini maps the 2016 Illinois primary

[Mr. Illini]

I am eagerly awaiting the returns from the Illinois primary this week. Fresh new material to map out. I'll be posting the maps here.

Stay tuned!

[Mr. Illini]

Predictions?

GOP Race: Trump dominates rural illinois and Cook county, meanwhile has a poorer showing in the surrounding suburban counties but the split with cruz, kasich, rubio allows him to narrowly carry all of them. Cruz might have a better showing with rural southern Illinois.

Dem Race: Hillary dominates Cook County due to minorities and suburbs but probably does bad in Rural illinois and the deindustrializing cities along with Urbana county, DeKalb County, Springfield County where Sanders will do great for obvious reasons.

GOP side: Trump will indeed dominate downstate except that Cruz will carry a couple of evangelical-heavy counties in the NW. Trump won't dominate in Cook County, as there is a good amount of suburban vote there. I anticipate Trump in the low 40s in Cook, winning the county by ~10%. Kasich will be competitive also in the collars, but Trump will win them by ~5-7%. Kasich might contend in DuPage.

Dem side: Hillary will win Cook by ~70-30 margin. She will win Lake and DuPage collars ~55-45. She will also get St. Louis suburban counties St. Claire and Madison. Sanders will perform very well in university counties (Champaign, McLean, Jackson, etc). Like in MI, he will do well in the rural portions of the county.

[Mr. Illini]

Predictions?

GOP Race: Trump dominates rural illinois and Cook county, meanwhile has a poorer showing in the surrounding suburban counties but the split with cruz, kasich, rubio allows him to narrowly carry all of them. Cruz might have a better showing with rural southern Illinois.

Dem Race: Hillary dominates Cook County due to minorities and suburbs but probably does bad in Rural illinois and the deindustrializing cities along with Urbana county, DeKalb County, Springfield County where Sanders will do great for obvious reasons.

GOP side: Trump will indeed dominate downstate except that Cruz will carry a couple of evangelical-heavy counties in the NW. Trump won't dominate in Cook County, as there is a good amount of suburban vote there. I anticipate Trump in the low 40s in Cook, winning the county by ~10%. Kasich will be competitive also in the collars, but Trump will win them by ~5-7%. Kasich might contend in DuPage.

Dem side: Hillary will win Cook by ~70-30 margin. She will win Lake and DuPage collars ~55-45. She will also get St. Louis suburban counties St. Claire and Madison. Sanders will perform very well in university counties (Champaign, McLean, Jackson, etc). Like in MI, he will do well in the rural portions of the county.

Why is Cook going to give Trump a greater margin than the collars?  I'd presume that the upscale white suburbs would be the harshest against him.  Is it because there's still white working class GOPers in parts of Chicago?

Few in the city, but SW Cook is white and more working class. This spills into Will County, which Trump will do well in.

Trump will be weak in northern Cook, which is richer. Kasich will see good numbers there. Lake County might run similarly to Cook for Trump because it also has some relatively lower-middle class in the NW portion of the county, but I think that DuPage will be worse for Trump. DuPage is richer and more consistently suburban throughout.

[Mr. Illini]

To paraphrase the late Pauline Kael, "How could Trump have won? I only know one person who voted for him."

Anyway, Trump declared victor in Illinois. Dem race too close to call.

[Mr. Illini]

Illinois called for Hillary. Bernie took all collar counties but Lake. Quite impressive.

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago maps will come once my schedule dies down in about a week.

For now, Lake County has helped me out considerably this year by providing maps of their own. I didn't like the color scheme etc on their map, so I have altered it. Enjoy.

Lake County, IL Precinct Level in the 2016 Democratic Primary

The map is not shaded by margin

[Mr. Illini]

Notice that Hillary was strongest in the SE corner and then up along the lake extending to the border.

In the SE corner, we have large Jewish populations. Wealthy Jewish townships such as Highland Park and Deerfield and then more middle class (but still heavily Jewish) Buffalo Grove. Along the lake north of HP we have wealthy WASPy Lake Forest and Lake Bluff, which went for Clinton. Then we have black-heavy North Chicago, Hispanic-heavy Waukegan, and diverse Zion.

Bernie's best territory was in the NW quadrant of the county. This area is largely white and middle class. This region also has areas with sizable Hispanic populations, where we see Bernie did well in as well. These are towns such as Wauconda, Antioch, Grayslake, Round Lake.

In the central region/rest of the county, we see more of a mix. We see a bit of a trend where Bernie was winning the towns within the townships and Hillary was winning the wealthier outskirts in areas such as Lake Zurich, Libertyville, Mundelein, and Gurnee.

[Mr. Illini]

I do think so. We see him winning Hispanic areas on this map. We will see what my Chicago map shows on the west side.

[Mr. Illini]

Starting to get around to some of these maps.

Dem Primary in Cook. The city is mapped by ward and the suburbs by township.




And with annotation. Summarizing, Bernie won in Hispanic areas and middle class white areas. Hillary won in black areas and wealthy white areas.



And just the city. Always a beautiful map.



More to come.

[Mr. Illini]

FWIW, you may like my maps over here.

Hadn't seen them. Awesome stuff!

Especially for getting a closer look at places like Evanston. Despite losing the town, I thought Bernie would would have done well among the latte liberals downtown and the champagne socialists in the NW of the town. He got killed there.

Also incredible how well Trump did in the far NW of the city (up by Rosemont). Only area of the city that I would consider to have a substantial number of Republicans. Would have expected a better Kasich performance there.

No wards were >70% either way? If so that's much less polarization than expected.

Nope. Indeed surprising. Clinton weaker among Chicago blacks than elsewhere it seems.

[Mr. Illini]

The Lake County map shaded properly

[Mr. Illini]

Cook and Lake Counties, GOP Primary

Trump
Kasich
Cruz

[Mr. Illini]

The Democratic race for Clerk of Circuit Court - a Green Line request

Despite having her home raided by by police and facing potential ethics charges, Brown was able to coast to victory in this primary. The result may not have been quite as much of a blowout as the map suggests - she won Brown 48/Harris 30/Meister 22 - yet, it Brown's victory was not all that difficult..

Cook County Dems endorsed Harris after the raid on Brown's home, but their efforts were futile.



We see that Brown did well throughout. Her numbers were best in the black areas of the county. The south and west sides along with the south suburbs were Brown's best jurisdictions. She also did well in the Hispanic areas - although Harris picked up a couple of wards there. Harris also, for whatever reason, won Lemont. No clear explanation there. Meister, a white, liberal human rights attorney, did best in, predictably, white liberal areas. His best numbers were on the north side - his best wards containing Lakeview, Roscoe Village, and parts of Lincoln Square. The North Shore as well - taking New Trier and Northfield townships.

[Mr. Illini]

Lemont, as well as Orland and Worth to some extent, have a lot of former Southwest Side machine voters from places like Madigans district (which Harris won) who moved out when the areas fell apart.  Maybe they are still influenced by the machine to some extent.  Thats all I can think of for Lemont at least.

It's also probably the most culturally conservative township, so Meister probably didnt fare well there at all, meaning Harris was able to consolidate the anti-brown vote.

Since I know you voted in the Dem primary - did you vote for Harris or Brown?

[Mr. Illini]

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Cook County



Obviously Duckworth killed it. However, some puzzling observations. It seems like Zopp did better in Hispanic areas than she did in black areas, despite having in-roads in the black community. This could be because of Harris - who also has in-roads in the black community. There's a chance that he split the "non-Duckworth vote" - except that didn't really exist as any sort of sentiment in this race. So why Hispanic communities were more sympathetic to Zopp, I am not sure. We see that Zopp won one SW side Hispanic ward as well as Cicero, a heavily Hispanic near west suburb. She also won one ward on the south side. Harris won south suburban township Thornton, which includes part of his state senate district. Duckworth's largest margins were in that huge block of dark red townships in the north of the county and the far north side wards. A number of those townships are in her Congressional district, and the townships/wards that aren't are very white - areas she did very well in.

[Mr. Illini]

Lemont, as well as Orland and Worth to some extent, have a lot of former Southwest Side machine voters from places like Madigans district (which Harris won) who moved out when the areas fell apart.  Maybe they are still influenced by the machine to some extent.  Thats all I can think of for Lemont at least.

It's also probably the most culturally conservative township, so Meister probably didnt fare well there at all, meaning Harris was able to consolidate the anti-brown vote.

Since I know you voted in the Dem primary - did you vote for Harris or Brown?

I definitely didn't vote for the criminal!  I can't remember if I went with Harris or Meister, though.

Yeah I meant to ask Harris or Meister