Dean failing to raise DNC funds

[Beet]

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I agree with some of your points. But isn't " "fire up your base and boost voter turnout" exactly what Bush did ? Remember those famous 4 million evangelimentalists or whatever baptists call themselves that Karl Rove tried to "reach" last year? Since that strategy worked for Bush, it should (in theory) work for the Dems as well.

Another thing, this isn't an election year. It's true that Bush tried to appeal to the middle during his initial run, when he pretended to be a "compassionate conservative" and made all the right "centrist" noises. But if he put on a moderate face in 2000, that was because he had spent 1999 shoring up and sewing up the base-- and even then nearly lost because not enough of Rove's evangelicals showed up.

Simply put, you've got to have a place to stand on before you can "reach out" to anyone.

On the GOTV issue:
Democrats have historically had a big advantage in party affliation numbers, so logically they would win if they simply got all those registered Democrats to show up.  That's the old strategy, though, and it doesn't appear to work anymore.

The Republicans didn't win solely on successful GOTV efforts.  The idea that evangelicals won the race for Bush is a myth that some Democrats use to convince themselves that they are right: "the majority disagrees with me because the majority is a bunch of loons."  Bush won because the major issue in the election, Iraq, was a winner for Bush.  Kerry couldn't get a majority of voters on the question "whom do you trust more on the issue of Iraq?"  Bush always had a strong lead on the Terrorism issue and was able to play to a near-draw on economic issues (thanks to efforts like NCLB and Medicare drug coverage).

That analysis simply isn't correct. The Iraq war mobilized Democrats and turned many people who would have supported Bush solely on 9/11 against him. It gave us a campaign issue-- only Kerry didn't fully take it. Nevertheless, among those who said Iraq was the most important issue for them, the vast majority voted Kerry. Take those voters out of the electorate, and Bush wins a landslide. Take evangelicals out of the electorate, however, and Kerry wins a near landslide. The Vorlon posted a great analysis on this by a polling firm a couple months back but I don't know where the thread is now.

Anyway, if Bush benefitted from foreign policy issues at all, it was the terrorism issue. That was where he drew his decisive advantage from-- and it was enough to offset (not complement) the damage done to him by the Iraq issue. Bush won because of 9/11. Plain and simple.

[Blue Rectangle]

That analysis simply isn't correct. The Iraq war mobilized Democrats and turned many people who would have supported Bush solely on 9/11 against him. It gave us a campaign issue-- only Kerry didn't fully take it. Nevertheless, among those who said Iraq was the most important issue for them, the vast majority voted Kerry. Take those voters out of the electorate, and Bush wins a landslide. Take evangelicals out of the electorate, however, and Kerry wins a near landslide. The Vorlon posted a great analysis on this by a polling firm a couple months back but I don't know where the thread is now.

Kerry didn't fully take the Iraq issue?!?  The entire Democratic convention was about what a great war hero Kerry was.  Kerry virtually abandoned economic issues in favor of a message of how he would be a better Comander in Chief than Bush.  It failed.

Take evangelicals out of the electorate, however, and Kerry wins a near landslide.

Take out Black voters and Bush wins in a huge landslide.  Does that prove the election was about racial issues?

Anyway, if Bush benefitted from foreign policy issues at all, it was the terrorism issue. That was where he drew his decisive advantage from-- and it was enough to offset (not complement) the damage done to him by the Iraq issue. Bush won because of 9/11. Plain and simple.

Bush consistantly beat Kerry on the question "whom do you trust more to handle the situation in Iraq."  Immediately after the DNC, the best Kerry did was to pull within the MOE on that issue.  Bush consistantly had a big lead on the "trust on Terror" question.  The only big issue that Kerry consistantly won on was the "trust on the economy".  Kerry mistakenly pushed the Iraq issue into first place.  Terror was second, and the Economy fell to third because no one was talking about it.  This is why Kerry lost.

[TeePee4Prez]

It doesn't matter if he broke the fundraising record, since those records are basically broken all over again each time around.  What matters i that the Dems had caught up to the Reps in fundraising and have now fallen far behind.

The difference between Dean and Mehlman as the two Party Chairs is a microchosm of why Republicans are winning and Democrats are losing.  An ideologue celebrity-pol elected with great fanfare and speculation who has no idea how to do his job or Mehlman, a professional politi-nerd whose election was barely noticed and hardly talked speculated about who rakes in the dough and knows how to run an organization.

The Republicans have the fat cats with tax cuts, and Kerry promising to raise taxes on those who made over $200k a year. You can thank Bush for all of that Democratic money raised last year, but he's not on the ballot again, so it'll be harder for the Democrats to fundraise. I don't think this is Dean's fault at all.

Going back to some Seante races...  Why can't Dean get the funds for some Senate races.  I mean we have shots in PA, RI, MO, and VA.  Is Liz Dole up in 2006 in NC?  If so, why not run John Edwards again?  The Democrats have to get better organized to plan to retake some seats.  Also, Dean says he is goign to focus on local races.  Well, that could also play big for some Congressional seats as well. 

[The Duke]

factor,

The reason those who said Iraq was the most important issue voted Kerry is because almost any pro-war person would say that Iraq is part of the war on terrorism, so they said terrorism was most important.  Only those who think Iraq is not part of war on terrorism said Iraq was the most important issue.  This makes those concerned with iraq a self selected sample of people already categorized as suspicious of the Iraq War before they're even asked who they voted for.

Flyers,

Dean won't run Edwards because even Dean isn't tat stupid.  Edwards approval ratings in NC are about 40% or so.

[Smash255]

Call me crazy, but I could have sworn I saw several polls where Dean has a purely dismal approval rating.

His approval has been in the thrities, but so has his disapproval.  The DK/NA crowd tends to be between 25-30 or so in many of these polls.  The net approval has generally been pretty close to even in most polls