2016 Congressional Primaries

[Heisenberg]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

That district is D+5, making it the second least Democratic in the state behind the D+4 MA-06, but this one is probably going to be the one with better chances for Republicans. Richard Tisei, who I think is a great fit for MA-06, lost badly in the Republican wave of 2014, and it was an open seat, and his close political ally Charlie Baker won the district in his governor race (yes, I know governor races are not federal, but still).

Tisei probably should have agreed to be Lieutenant Governor, or at least the nominee again. He and Baker came impressively close in 2010.

From what I looked up, Moulton was the underdog until around August, when the primary became a tossup. Tisei would have been favored to win against Tierney (and should have won in 2012, but a damn Libertarian spoiler, ugh), but the race between him and Moulton was close in polls, but he lost by more than polling suggested. If Moulton vacates the seat to run statewide, does Tisei try again? He is probably the best Republican for that district, and Moulton seems like an especially strong candidate.

[Kingpoleon]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

That district is D+5, making it the second least Democratic in the state behind the D+4 MA-06, but this one is probably going to be the one with better chances for Republicans. Richard Tisei, who I think is a great fit for MA-06, lost badly in the Republican wave of 2014, and it was an open seat, and his close political ally Charlie Baker won the district in his governor race (yes, I know governor races are not federal, but still).

Tisei probably should have agreed to be Lieutenant Governor, or at least the nominee again. He and Baker came impressively close in 2010.

From what I looked up, Moulton was the underdog until around August, when the primary became a tossup. Tisei would have been favored to win against Tierney (and should have won in 2012, but a damn Libertarian spoiler, ugh), but the race between him and Moulton was close in polls, but he lost by more than polling suggested. If Moulton vacates the seat to run statewide, does Tisei try again? He is probably the best Republican for that district, and Moulton seems like an especially strong candidate.

I'm thinking Warren might become Secretary of the Treasury, or possibly even retire in 2018. She'll be turning 69 that year, and I can't see her staying in the Senate until she's seventy-five. If she resigns to join Clinton's cabinet or retires, Moulton probably runs for her seat as Tisei runs for Moulton's. If not, Moulton could ask have an interest in becoming Transportation Secretary or Secretary of the Navy.

[smoltchanov]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

AFAIK, Alliegro is a far right tea-party man, so i doubt he will be win many elections in Massachusetts. Republicans can win MA-09 under very good environment, but not such Republicans as he is....

[Figueira]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

AFAIK, Alliegro is a far right tea-party man, so i doubt he will be win many elections in Massachusetts. Republicans can win MA-09 under very good environment, but not such Republicans as he is....

Ah, OK. I knew nothing about him.

[Heisenberg]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

AFAIK, Alliegro is a far right tea-party man, so i doubt he will be win many elections in Massachusetts. Republicans can win MA-09 under very good environment, but not such Republicans as he is....

Ah, OK. I knew nothing about him.

In that case he's clearly not the type who could win. Gabriel Gomez would be a strong nominee when this seat opens, though.

[Figueira]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

AFAIK, Alliegro is a far right tea-party man, so i doubt he will be win many elections in Massachusetts. Republicans can win MA-09 under very good environment, but not such Republicans as he is....

Ah, OK. I knew nothing about him.

In that case he's clearly not the type who could win. Gabriel Gomez would be a strong nominee when this seat opens, though.

He doesn't quite live in the district, but I suppose he could carpetbag, or there's always the chance it could be redistricted to include his town.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In the still-undecided AZ-5 R primary, Biggs's lead increased from 9 votes to 16 votes after a court ordered counting of some previously rejected ballots.

http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/jones-still-losing-to-biggs-in-arizona-cd5-race-but-case-exposes-serious-voting-flaw-8626812

There will still be a recount sometime this week.

[Miles]

Maricopa County:

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Welcome to the primary season semi-finale! Today's elections are in Rhode Island, Delaware and New Hampshire. Some NH polls close at 7 ET, all other polls close at 8 ET.

Contested races are NH-1 R, NH-2 R, NH Senate R, NH Gov D & R, DE-AL D, DE GOV R, RI-1 D, and RI-2 D.

Results Pages:

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/new-hampshire
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delaware
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/rhode-island

(There are also some non-congressional races in NY today, there is a thread for those on the gubernatorial/statewide board. Please discuss those races there and not here.)

(I say semi-finale for a couple of reasons. 1) There will be a re-do of the NY-3 R primary on October 6 due to a ballot error when the primary was originally held back in June, and 2) Louisiana's jungle primary is on the general election day in November.)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A winner in the AZ-5 R primary will be declared on Friday: http://www.nonpareilonline.com/news/political_news/wire/arizona-judge-orders-recount-in-close-gop-congressional-race/article_d57d5382-1c05-5c7a-9738-0d5348498766.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Not seeing anything. My guess is we'll get that right away at 7 ET.

[Xing]

My endorsements (lol):

NH-01: Anyone but Guinta, though it will be hilarious to see Guinta getting Blanched in November
NH-02: Jack Flanagan
Senate: Jim Rubens
Governor: Ted Gatsas

Will you ironically support Shea-Porter if Guinta wins the primary?

[Xing]

My endorsements (lol):

NH-01: Anyone but Guinta, though it will be hilarious to see Guinta getting Blanched in November
NH-02: Jack Flanagan
Senate: Jim Rubens
Governor: Ted Gatsas

Will you ironically support Shea-Porter if Guinta wins the primary?

Yes, but I wouldn't call it 'ironic' support. I want to see him get crushed.

Well, I'm pretty sure you'll get your wish

[The Other Castro]

T. Gatsas   49.0%   476
F. Edelblut   21.5%   209
C. Sununu   17.0%   165
J. Forrester 10.5%   102
J. Lavoie      2.0%   19


Interesting...

[The Other Castro]

5.3% Reporting
R. Ashooh   49.8%   1,533
F. Guinta (i) 44.8%   1,381

This could be close.

[136or142]

Ashooh, Rich   GOP   882   51%
Guinta, Frank (i)   GOP   760   44%

Is it happening?

Rick Ashooh (bless you)

[Xing]

Sununu and Guinta losing? Seems a bit tough to believe, but I guess these are early results.

[136or142]

Sununu and Guinta losing? Seems a bit tough to believe, but I guess these are early results.

I thought Guinta was expected to lose.

[Xing]

Ashooh still up 50-45 with 5% in.

[Xing]

Ruh-oh, looks like Guinta's closing the gap. Gatsas is still in the lead in the gubernatorial race, but it's tightened a bit. If Sununu actually gets third, that would be pathetic.

[Heisenberg]

My endorsements (lol):

NH-01: Anyone but Guinta, though it will be hilarious to see Guinta getting Blanched in November
NH-02: Jack Flanagan
Senate: Jim Rubens
Governor: Ted Gatsas

Great minds think alike. While I don't like Guinta, I kind of want to see him Blanched, he's the only Republican I'd like to see that happen to (obviously). If NH-02 was a competitive race, I would endorse Flanagan, let's just say he's the "least weak" candidate. For the Senate, I would love to see Rubens pull of the upset, he's even more unelectable and Republicans would probably triage this race (they would triage it anyway, but they won't let go of Ayotte, ugh). Sununu is a better governor candidate but I like Gatsas's policies better.

[Heisenberg]

Sununu and Guinta losing? Seems a bit tough to believe, but I guess these are early results.

I thought Guinta was expected to lose.

He was originally, but in the end Ashooh emerged as the only challenger, he is an underdog in the primary but it doesn't matter since the primary is effectively a right-to-lose race.

[Xing]

Van Ostern is starting to run away with the Democratic primary, while the Republican side has tightened. Sununu might not be done just yet.

[136or142]

Sununu and Guinta losing? Seems a bit tough to believe, but I guess these are early results.

I thought Guinta was expected to lose.

He was originally, but in the end Ashooh emerged as the only challenger, he is an underdog in the primary but it doesn't matter since the primary is effectively a right-to-lose race.

Thanks.

[Nyvin]

Anytime I see Gatsas talk about the heroine crisis, he's just like "Punishments! More Punishments!  Lock'em up!"

I guess that strategy is working for him.