2016 Congressional Primaries

[Xing]

Lawson's back in the lead in FL-5!

[SATW]

Lawson's back in the lead in FL-5!

[Holmes]

Even though Grayson's getting pummeled, he's not doing as badly in parts of Northern Florida. I guess the Dixiecrats there think he'd be an easier opponent for Flawless Beautiful Marco .

Also he wasn't the one endorsed by Obama.

[Maxwell]

lol Pam Keith is almost beating Grayson. Keith seemed like a decent candidate for State Senate or even House, but an odd choice to run for Senate right out the gate.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

lol Pam Keith is almost beating Grayson. Keith seemed like a decent candidate for State Senate or even House, but an odd choice to run for Senate right out the gate.

That is amazing!

FL-18 is worrisome though, I hope Negron pulls through there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Taddeo and Garcia in a very close race; FL-26 D

[Maxwell]

lol Pam Keith is almost beating Grayson. Keith seemed like a decent candidate for State Senate or even House, but an odd choice to run for Senate right out the gate.

That is amazing!

FL-18 is worrisome though, I hope Negron pulls through there.

is Mast a bad candidate?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Randy Perkins is well ahead for FL-18 D.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Thank God CORRUPT Corrine Brown is losing

[JMT]

It will be hilarious if Alan Grayson comes in third!! Looks like it's possible

[Xing]

Wow, FL-26 could be a nailbiter.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Also, Paul Stanton is beating Augustus Sol Invictus in the Libertarian primary 74-26%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't mean to brag, but I was on point about FL-18. Damn!

[windjammer]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  5 minil y a 5 minutes Voir la traduction
In safe GOP #FL02, Mary Thomas (R) leading Neal Dunn (R) 42%-38%, but Dunn's base of Bay County hasn't reported votes yet. Bad sign for her.

[Xing]

Congrats to Flawless Beautiful Marco on not getting humiliated twice in a row.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IT'S A VICTORY FOR FLAWLESS BEAUTIFUL MARCO >3 >3 >3

[Ebsy]

DWS is leading the election day vote in Miami-Dade by a similar margin that she won the early vote. Pretty clear where things are headed.

[JMT]

Also LOL @DanBongino.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Charlie Crist's 2014 Gubernatorial running mate is winning so far in the 26ths Dem primary.

[Pandaguineapig]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  5 minil y a 5 minutes Voir la traduction
In safe GOP #FL02, Mary Thomas (R) leading Neal Dunn (R) 42%-38%, but Dunn's base of Bay County hasn't reported votes yet. Bad sign for her.

Assuming a base for an candidate with no political office can often backfire

[JMT]

Patrick Murphy declared winner for Dems!!! Yay!!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FLAWLESS BEAUTIFUL MARCO NOW HAS THE LEAD IN COLUMBIA COUNTY!

And Patrick Murphy wins the democratic primary!

Grayson's district voted for him, but hardly anyone else did. LOL.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Pretty off on Negron's appeal to the base, but she isn't badly behind considering the fact that only 20% is in.

quote author=ChairmanSanchez link=topic=244097.msg5229625#msg5229625 date=1471920298]

Posted this in the Clawson thread. I met him a few months ago when he was thinking about running in a district on the east coast. Didn't strike me as an angry guy.

Speaking of FL-18, the district he previously considered, who do you think wins next week's crowded primary? My guess is Rebecca Negron, who has picked up endorsements from National Right to Life, Jeff Atwater, and others. She also seems to be the strongest general election candidate for the seat. Also, is Francis Rooney in FL-19 related to Tom Rooney from FL-17?

It'll either be Negron or Mast. Negron is the most likely winner. First of all, I interned for her consultant, who I won't name here (you can PM me if you want), a highly respected consultant who has a lot of success in state/local races (the whole Jeb thing didn't pan out, but that was fate) and an abundance of strong ties that have benefited Negron. The following is anecdotal of course, but I also spent a good bit of time in FL-18 over the summer and attended a lot of local GOP events. Negron isn't the favorite of the Tea Party wing, yet she is also viewed as acceptable and electable, so that combined with her establishment support should result in her winning the primary and the general itself.

Brian Mast is her only real threat from what I can tell. He has been promoted all over the various Tea Party Facebook pages in the area and has a lot of prominent support. He's competing for votes with Noelle Nikpour, who filed for the race and has since coasted on her meager amount of name recognition as a Fox personality. Nikpour has no infrastructure what so ever out there.

I'd probably hedge my bet on the following result. I won't guess the percentages.
1. Negron
2. Mast
3. Freeman
4. Domino
5. Kozell
6. Nikpour

Domino has a lot of name recognition and money, but he also is viewed as extremely past his prime. To quote one of my mentors from the area, "Carl has to take his ball and just go home. It's over." I like Domino, actually. I once had lunch with him at a GOP function when I was like 13 and he was very, very agreeable as a person but also completely bland as a candidate. His time has come and gone.

Freeman is the wildcard, as he has poured a lot of his own money into the race and I saw a lot of ads for him when I was back home (I am from the neighboring FL-22). But I think the district and the Treasure Coast/Palm Beach County area is more inclined to a Brian Mast guy with a respected war record and an inspiring life story.
[/quote]

[Xing]

Murphy wins! Florida Dems did something right, and aren't out of this race yet!

[SATW]

Rubio projected winner Time to be Privileged Pat in November! #Rubio2016