2016 Congressional Primaries

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And H.D. Evans wins the NV-2 Dem Primary.

NV-1 R and ME-1 R still uncalled.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, looks like the Bernie Sanders Revolution is a total dud so far. Flores got crushed!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thankfully the voters of NV-4 understood that Hardy would have been favored against Flores.

[IceSpear]

Accidental Congressman Hardy would not have beaten a ham sandwich.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mary Perry wins NV-1 R

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Nevada primaries show once again that there is no Sanders movement. His endorsed candidates tanked badly despite the low turnout which should benefit those with a passionate base of support.

[Holmes]

The Nevada primaries show once again that there is no Sanders movement. His endorsed candidates tanked badly despite the low turnout which should benefit those with a passionate base of support.

Hopefully this is good news for Walkinshaw in WA-07.

[This account no longer in use.]

The Nevada primaries show once again that there is no Sanders movement. His endorsed candidates tanked badly despite the low turnout which should benefit those with a passionate base of support.

Very relevant as always, Lyndon.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mark Holbrook narrowly defeats Ande Smith in the right to lose to Chellie Pingree.

No primaries next week. June 28th is the next primary date - CO, NY, OK, UT. SC runoffs as well, but nothing gubernatorial/congressional requires a runoff.

[publicunofficial]

As more votes come in from California, Emilio Huerta now has a 797 vote lead over the less-impressive Daniel Parra in CA-21. David Valadao's share of the primary vote has dropped to 55.8%.

[Eraserhead]

Are there any interesting primaries in Colorado or Utah on Tuesday? I've mostly been following the New York stuff (for obvious reasons) and I've kept up with Oklahoma to some extent.

[Heisenberg]

Are there any interesting primaries in Colorado or Utah on Tuesday? I've mostly been following the New York stuff (for obvious reasons) and I've kept up with Oklahoma to some extent.

Utah has the GOP governor primary (Herbert should win).
Colorado has the GOP Senate primary, not sure if any House primaries will be interesting.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

List of contested primaries by poll closing time:

8 ET: OK-1, OK-2 D&R, OK-3 R, OK-4 D&R, OK-5 D&R, OK Senate L

The key races are OK-01 R and OK-02 R, where two GOP incumbents appear to be in real danger of losing. OK Senate L is notable as this is the first time libertarians have been on the ballot in the state since 2000. Any races where no one gets 50% go to an august runoff between the top two candidates.

9 ET: NY-1 D, NY-3 D, NY-5 D, NY-7 D, NY-10 D, NY-12 D, NY-13 D, NY-15 D, NY-18 R, NY-19 D&R, NY-22 R, NY-24 D

Keep an eye on NY-1 D, a very competitive contest to decide who will face GOP incumbent Lee Zeldin in the fall. NY-3 D will decide the nominee to face Jack Martins (R) in the contest to replace retiring Rep. Steve Israel. NY-13 D is a crowded defacto GE to replace retiring Rep. Charlie Rangel. NY-19 features primaries on both sides as candidates seek to succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Gibson. One of the D candidates is the Bernie-endorsed Zephyr Teachout. NY-22 R decides the likely successor to retiring Rep. Richard Hanna. And NY-24 D will decide the opponent for GOP incumbent John Katko - it could be the Bernie-endorsed Eric Kingson.

CO-1 D, CO-3 R, CO-5 D&R, CO Senate R

Keep an eye on CO-5 R, where GOP incumbent Doug Lamborn is at some risk of defeat. The Senate primary is fairly crowded, but the favorite should be Darryl Glenn, who was endorsed by the state GOP in April.


10 ET: UT-3 R, UT Senate D, UT Governor R

Keep an eye on the Governor primary, but I doubt Herbert is in much danger of actually losing.

(The SC runoffs do not include any contests for Congress or governor)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results pages for tonight:

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/oklahoma

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/new-york

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/colorado

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/utah

First poll closing is Oklahoma in just under three hours.

[Maxwell]

Polls closed in Oklahoma.

Watch for:

OK-1 and OK-2. These are relatively competitive primaries.

OK-1 has Congressman Jim Bridenstine, who is a staunch conservative and Cruz-ite, and Tom Atkinson, a wealthy oilman who has bombarded the state with TV ads. This is Lean Bridenstine, who has the endorsement of Senator Coburn and has pledged this will be his last term, but Atkinson has gained a lot of traction in the last few weeks. I can not tell any difference between their positions, but I suspect that Bridenstine has probably voted one too many times against spending that Big Oil approves of, and Atkinson will probably be more friendly to those interests.

OK-2 has Congressman Markwayne Mullin, a tool who always complains about how boring being a Congressman is but still keeps running, and Jarrin Jackson, an army vet. Mullin is out-raising Jackson hand over fist, and the only reason this is competitive is because Jackson isn't completely being beat (he's raised about $50,000 last month, which is bad but not terrible) and he has the endorsement of Senator Tom Coburn, who actually represented this region in congress and probably has the most traction here. Still, this is Likely Mullin.

And then Tulsa Mayor, where Mayor Dewey Bartlett, who has been endorsement by the conservative political establishment, is facing City Councillor G.T. Bynum, who has been endorsed by just about every single former Tulsa Mayor (besides, of course, Jim Inhofe). Bynum is relatively more progressive, but both are Republicans and are fairly moderate for Oklahoma standards. Bartlett has done some things for the city, and I like his antagonist relationship with the Tulsa Police Department, but his proposals were more of the same and while Bynum's positions are largely mush now, Bynum has a lot of proposals that would at least push the city in a way to handle our current growth spurt.

[Vosem]

Early vote has Bridenstine blowing Atkinson out of the water, 77-20 (winning by more than both Cole and Lucas against their Some Dude challengers, btw), while Mullin vs. Jackson seems like the only remotely competitive race (with Mullin leading 59-41).

This is on early vote, which might be unrepresentative, of course -- there are 0 precincts reporting.

[Maxwell]

Atkinson spent a lot a lot of money here - I could see the results turning because these are super early - but if these hold then he made a huge damn waste of it. Bridenstine is also pretty popular here despite being pretty useless.

It could also mean Coburn still means something in this state years after his retirement.

[Maxwell]

Early Tulsa Mayor results have Bynum ahead 48-43. That's nice, but he needs 50% to avoid a run-off.

In Oklahoma, Democrats and Indies vote in the Democrat primary, while only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. Maybe that's why OK-2 has more people voting so far in the Democrat primary than the Republican primary (around 4,300 votes in Dems to around 3,000 votes in the GOP).

[Vosem]

Amusing statistic noticed by RRH, with 1% in, there are 3,129 Republican votes and 5,358 utterly meaningless Democratic primary votes cast in OK-2. Mullin is up 60-40 at the moment.

[Maxwell]

My guess - Mullin wins 65-35. Unimpressive, but so is he so it all works out.

[Maxwell]

Bynum pulling up to a wide lead - 54-37. Wow!

At this point I'd call it for Bridenstine - Atkinson is getting embarassed (especially after he spent as much as he did).

[Vosem]

My guess - Mullin wins 65-35. Unimpressive, but so is he so it all works out.

He's up to 63-37 on 14%; looks like it may be more than that if things continue this way. I suppose I vaguely wanted Jackson, since I'd always liked Coburn and was willing to take him at his word; but none of the Oklahoma races this year are particularly interesting.

Bridenstine is leading Atkinson 77-20 in a hilarious wipeout, even as Cole is being held to just 72 by his Some Dude-ish challengers.

Maxwell, can you explain the difference between Bartlett and Bynum? They seem like indistinguishable establishment conservatives to me, and RRH is really not helping.

[This account no longer in use.]

Bridenstine projected to win primary.

[Maxwell]

I suppose the major difference between the two, beyond development along the river (even there, their positions have mushed together) is attitude and affiliation. Dewey Bartlett has staked his legacy on being a strong fiscal conservative, who has sailed the city's ship right and made it fiscally responsible. He also has endorsements from the Oklahoma conservative establishment. I've met Bartlett before and he's a nice guy and seems like a small "c" type conservative. Bynum, on the other hand, has made his campaign about moving forward with the city - potential projects, things to do, how to better manage things, ect. Bynum is basically running as the de facto Democrat of the race, though he is also a Republican, and has the endorsements of nearly all of the city's past mayors (besides Inhofe).

Basically, when it comes to line item issues Bartlett and Bynum have similar ideas, but their approach to those ideas are probably far different.

[Maxwell]

OK-2 called for Mullin. boo.

I thought Oklahoma would be more entertaining.