2016 Congressional Primaries

[Vosem]

Gotcha, Maxwell. That'd been left unclear to me.

Considering that Jackson got outspent and was basically unheard of until just recently, still a pretty decent result for him, winning some counties and coming much closer than anyone else. Since the whole point of the campaign was to punish Mullin for deviating from his term-limits pledge, which only actually goes into effect in 2018, is Mullin seriously endangered two years from now?

Also, If Bridenstine can gain 1% from where he is now, and Russell can lose 1%, Bridenstine will be the OK Congressman to have the largest percent of the vote in his primary

[Heisenberg]

Fun fact: One of the candidates in the NY-13 D primary (the de facto race to replace longtime retiring Denocratic Representative Charlie Rangel) is named Mike Gallagher, sharing the name with a Republican candidate for WI-08.

[Vosem]

4% in from NY-3, all from Queens (so, not Suozzi's base) has Suozzi over 50%, with his nearest opponent at 19%. Don't think this one is competitive at all.

16% in from NY-10, and Nadler is leading his somewhat hyped opponent Rosenberg 87-13. An even bigger fail than Atkinson.

5% in from NY-13, and Wright is leading Espaillat 32-29, with no one else over 13 but field collecting the vast majority of the votes. Likely to go down the wire.

1% in from NY-19 (so basically nothing), but moonbat Teachout is leading electable Democrat Yandik 69-31, and reasonable Republican Faso is leading hardcore Trump cultist (and maybe the worst serious candidate on offer tonight) Heaney 70-30; this race is working out perfectly.

[Maxwell]

Gotcha, Maxwell. That'd been left unclear to me.

Considering that Jackson got outspent and was basically unheard of until just recently, still a pretty decent result for him, winning some counties and coming much closer than anyone else. Since the whole point of the campaign was to punish Mullin for deviating from his term-limits pledge, which only actually goes into effect in 2018, is Mullin seriously endangered two years from now?

Also, If Bridenstine can gain 1% from where he is now, and Russell can lose 1%, Bridenstine will be the OK Congressman to have the largest percent of the vote in his primary

Mullin is pretty mediocre. I think he'll get another challenger next time, serious or not.

[Vosem]

The Colorado count is going ludicrously fast. With 59% in, conservative favorite Darryl Glenn (endorsed by Ted Cruz) is leading the libertarianish Jack Graham 39-23, with everyone else far back; Graham was my preference but I wouldn't be particularly upset with Glenn.

With 78% in CO-5, utterly useless incumbent Doug Lamborn is leading his challenger (utter no-name staffer Calandra Vargas, who came within a few votes of knocking him off outright at the convention) 69-31. Looks like the convention was the one shot to knock off Lamborn this year, and we blew it.

[Maxwell]

Bynum now wide out in front with 58% to Mayor Bartlett's 35%, with 22% of the precincts in. This could be over very shortly.

Graham was probably Colorado Republicans only shot at knocking out Bennet, at least compared to the other fools running. Graham is relatively moderate, a decent fundraiser, and isn't an also ran joke like Frazier.

also lol @ Keyser's 12%.

[Maxwell]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

[The Other Castro]

Close race for NY-1 Dems.

[Vosem]

Amusing result in NY-13; Nadler leads in the Brooklyn part of the district just 51-49, while he leads 94-6 in the Manhattan part (!), which adds up to an 88-12 lead for him, since the average Brooklyn precinct that's in has 12.9 votes, while the average Manhattan precinct has 60.3.

Suozzi is down to 44, but Kaplan, his closest opponent, is still mired at 21, and none of Nassau is in yet. Espaillat now leads Wright 37-34; because the ethnic boundaries there don't conform to borough lines, hard to say who might be doing well or poorly, with 43% in. Teachout is at 79; Faso at 73.

In an old-fashioned Tea Party versus establishment battle (not seemingly linked to the presidential race) in NY-22, TP candidate Claudia Tenney leads establishment businessman Steve Wells 46-45 on the first 2%; they're only from one county, so hard to judge who that's good news for. Nothing yet from NY-1 or NY-24.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Darryl Glenn leads Colorado Senate Primary 37-23 over Jack Graham with 2 out of 64 counties fully reporting.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

So Darryl Glenn is a someguy, I take it?

[Vosem]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

With 25% in, Tenney leads Wells 47-34, mostly on the strength of a crushing landslide in Oneida County, which is about a third of this seat. The only other county with anything in, Broome, is a crushing landslide for third candidate George Phillips (it is his home base), and in fact Tenney is being reduced to third there.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

So Darryl Glenn is a someguy, I take it?

Darryl Glenn is the current El Paso County Commissioner, and was endorsed by the Colorado State convention with 70% of the vote. Glenn was also endorsed by Ted Cruz.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

They did, they're running Kim Myers.

[Pandaguineapig]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

They did, they're running Kim Myers.

A joke candidate

[Maxwell]

So Darryl Glenn is a someguy, I take it?

Yes and No. He's probably DOA in the general election, but he's made some impressive moves during the primary. First he ousted convention favorite, State Senator Tim Neville, on the strength of his convention speech. Then, he began amassing the endorsements of big conservative names. That was enough to give him name recog among Republican primary voters, even as Graham and others were competing for TV space.

[Vosem]

Suffolk County is giving local commissioner Steve Stern more than 50% of the vote against field in the NY-3 Democratic primary; he's narrowed Suozzi's margin to 36-24. He was in fourth place in Queens, with just 9%. Still frustratingly nothing in from Nassau County, which on the one hand should be Suozzi's home base, but where on the other hand he does not seem to have been well-loved.

NY-1, a contest between Anne Throne-Holst (representing the national Democratic establishment) and Dave Calone (representing the local Democratic establishment) is very narrow, with Throne-Holst having a 53-47 lead with 42% in; since this is all in one county, we have no idea where that's from. Similar contests in Pennsylvania seemed to uniformly go to the local Democrats (remember Balchunis crushing Golderer), so if Throne-Holst wins this will show the national Democrats still have force in contests like this.

In NY-22, Cortland County is coming in and giving Wells a greater than 50 landslide (with Tenney in third), so Tenney now leads Wells just 45-33. The three-way geographic polarization here is stunning and will make a fascinating map.

[publicunofficial]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

They did, they're running Kim Myers.

A joke candidate

Tenney's the only joke in that district, friend.

[The Other Castro]

Only a 39 vote difference in NY-1 now.

[publicunofficial]

Anyone hyping up Glenn should read this first.

[Vosem]

More Suffolk coming in (the county now 64% in), and Suozzi leads Stern just 34-30. Still nothing from Nassau.

In NY-22, Tioga is coming in strong for third candidate Phillips, while Chenango is over 50 for Wells. Tenney still leads Wells 42-32, but she's been doing very poorly outside Oneida County; Oneida County is 94% in even as the rest of the district is only 31% in. Might be reasonable to expect her to drop.

Former Gillibrand staffer/national Democratic choice Colleen Deacon is beating professor/Sandernista Eric Kingson 51-30 in NY-24 for the right to take on John Katko, the Republican in the second-most Democratic seat held by a Republican in the country but who won 59-41 two years ago; seems unclear whether he's pretty much safe or absolute dead meat.

[publicunofficial]

Amazing results in the NY-10 primary. Nadler has been facing a primary challenge over his support for the Iran deal, and his opponent was even endorsed by the NY Post.

Nadler is crushing his opponent 89-11, but is losing the Brooklyn portion of his district 94-6.

[Heisenberg]

Glenn just won in Colorado. Graham was who I was rooting for, he's the only one who could've made the race competitive. What a recruitment flop, especially since the Colorado GOP has a strong bench.

[Gass3268]

Amazing results in the NY-10 primary. Nadler has been facing a primary challenge over his support for the Iran deal, and his opponent was even endorsed by the NY Post.

Nadler is crushing his opponent 89-11, but is losing the Brooklyn portion of his district 94-6.

Where is NYJew when you need him?

[Vosem]

Stern has taken the lead over Suozzi, 33-32. Still nothing at all from Nassau, but 80% of Suffolk (where Stern>50, and Suozzi in second) is in, along with 99% of Queens (where Suozzi>40, and Stern in fourth).

With 84% in NY-1, Throne-Holst is hanging on to a 23-vote lead over Calone.

Amazing results in the NY-10 primary. Nadler has been facing a primary challenge over his support for the Iran deal, and his opponent was even endorsed by the NY Post.

Nadler is crushing his opponent 89-11, but is losing the Brooklyn portion of his district 94-6.

I grew up in the Brooklyn part of this district...

In other news, Wright has narrowed the margin with Espaillat to 36-35, but what's out looks reassuring for Espaillat. NY-22 has Tenney 39, Wells 31, and Phillips 30, with what's out seeming good for Wells (but possibly insufficient) and massive geographical polarization, with all 3 candidates well over 50 in their home bases.