2016 Congressional Primaries

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Gary Herbert is leading Jonathan Johnson 73-26

Misty K. Snow is leading Jonathan Swinton 59-40 in the Democratic Senate race

[Maxwell]

Anyone hyping up Glenn should read this first.

I'm not hyping him as a general election candidate - he's going to lose for sure. He's nuts!

[Vosem]

Amazing results in the NY-10 primary. Nadler has been facing a primary challenge over his support for the Iran deal, and his opponent was even endorsed by the NY Post.

Nadler is crushing his opponent 89-11, but is losing the Brooklyn portion of his district 94-6.

No. Nadler lost Brooklyn 52-48 (he had fantastic constituent service; my grandfather was a big fan), and won Manhattan 94-6. If Nadler really lost Brooklyn 94-6, his margin overall would've at least fallen into the 70s

[Pandaguineapig]

Glenn if nothing else is a gifted communicator but needs a large nrsc push for to put this race on the map

[The Other Castro]

This NY-1 race is crazy close.

[Maxwell]

Obscure race alert - Oklahoma State House 70 is overwhelmingly Republlican, and the choice between Carol Bush, kind of unknown but can't be worse than Walker, and Ken Walker, pretty dumb and backed by the Oklahoma conservative establishment. 86% of the precincts in, and Bush is up 53-47.

Very excited! This is my State House race.

[Vosem]

Gary Herbert is leading Jonathan Johnson 73-26

Misty K. Snow is leading Jonathan Swinton 59-40 in the Democratic Senate race

Wow.  I think Misty Snow would be the first transgendered nominee for Senate if that holds.

A noteworthy accomplishment -- wonder how much coverage it'll get in the media. Shame she's a sacrificial lamb.

Back in New York, Throne-Holst is still clinging onto an 86-vote lead over Calone with 92% reporting. With 1 precinct in from Nassau, Kaiman is over 50, with Stern (who currently leads) down at 7%, and Suozzi in third (behind also Anna Kaplan); this is enough to give Suozzi back a 29-28 lead over Stern. Several candidates have local bases in different parts of Nassau County, so this race may yet get still more confusing.

On the topic of NY-11, I wonder if a case could be made for a VRA seat for the Orthodox; there's enough for it to be majority-minority and it's currently split a dozen ways (basically disenfranchising the community); I'm not sure that there's a way to draw it without a black district being eliminated somewhere, which would be very controversial.

Espaillat back out to 37-34 over Wright. That's likely to grow based on what's out; he should be getting a checkmark soon.

Faso down to 63-37 over Heaney; Heaney seems to be getting a nice margin out of Dutchess County (his base?) but he's still getting destroyed everywhere else. Only 38% in here though, so it might be one to keep an eye on. (Yandik is at 71% in his home county of Columbia, which has very little in; he should be narrowing the margin with Teachout soon as well).

40 Tenney, 31 Wells, 29 Phillips. Later Chenango and Cortland precincts seem to have gone her way, as Wells is no longer over 50 in either county, though several counties are still entirely out. Tenney should win if the current margins hold.

Deacon leads Kingson 50-32 in NY-24; unusually for New York, there seem to be very few geographic gradations; the margin is pretty much the same everywhere.

Obscure race alert - Oklahoma State House 70 is overwhelmingly Republlican, and the choice between Carol Bush, kind of unknown but can't be worse than Walker, and Ken Walker, pretty dumb and backed by the Oklahoma conservative establishment. 86% of the precincts in, and Bush is up 53-47.

Very excited! This is my State House race.

In another obscure race alert, utterly insane Colorado St. Rep. Gordon Klingenschmitt was defeated 62-38 in his state Senate primary (90% of precincts in, but that's not getting overturned).

[Pandaguineapig]

Gary Herbert is leading Jonathan Johnson 73-26

Misty K. Snow is leading Jonathan Swinton 59-40 in the Democratic Senate race

Wow.  I think Misty Snow would be the first transgendered nominee for Senate if that holds.

A noteworthy accomplishment -- wonder how much coverage it'll get in the media. Shame she's a sacrificial lamb.

Back in New York, Throne-Holst is still clinging onto an 86-vote lead over Calone with 92% reporting. With 1 precinct in from Nassau, Kaiman is over 50, with Stern (who currently leads) down at 7%, and Suozzi in third (behind also Anna Kaplan); this is enough to give Suozzi back a 29-28 lead over Stern. Several candidates have local bases in different parts of Nassau County, so this race may yet get still more confusing.

On the topic of NY-11, I wonder if a case could be made for a VRA seat for the Orthodox; there's enough for it to be majority-minority and it's currently split a dozen ways (basically disenfranchising the community); I'm not sure that there's a way to draw it without a black district being eliminated somewhere, which would be very controversial.

Espaillat back out to 37-34 over Wright. That's likely to grow based on what's out; he should be getting a checkmark soon.

Faso down to 63-37 over Heaney; Heaney seems to be getting a nice margin out of Dutchess County (his base?) but he's still getting destroyed everywhere else. Only 38% in here though, so it might be one to keep an eye on. (Yandik is at 71% in his home county of Columbia, which has very little in; he should be narrowing the margin with Teachout soon as well).

40 Tenney, 31 Wells, 29 Phillips. Later Chenango and Cortland precincts seem to have gone her way, as Wells is no longer over 50 in either county, though several counties are still entirely out. Tenney should win if the current margins hold.

Deacon leads Kingson 50-32 in NY-24; unusually for New York, there seem to be very few geographic gradations; the margin is pretty much the same everywhere.

Obscure race alert - Oklahoma State House 70 is overwhelmingly Republlican, and the choice between Carol Bush, kind of unknown but can't be worse than Walker, and Ken Walker, pretty dumb and backed by the Oklahoma conservative establishment. 86% of the precincts in, and Bush is up 53-47.

Very excited! This is my State House race.

In another obscure race alert, utterly insane Colorado St. Rep. Gordon Klingenschmitt was defeated 62-38 in his state Senate primary (90% of precincts in, but that's not getting overturned).

Good klingenschmitt is filth

[Vosem]

Another funny NY result that nobody noticed: Nydia Velazquez is winning her primary 62-27 overall (including 69-20 in Brooklyn, the overwhelming majority of this district, and 66-21 in Queens), but is losing 49-43 in the Manhattan portion (which I believe is plurality or majority Asian, and shunted together into this majority-Hispanic district).

Oh NYC with your unrepresented ethnic enclaves

EDIT: Apparently in Assembly District 48 (...Dov Hikind land), Rosenberg is polling >70%

EDIT 2: Brooklyn is 55% of NY-10's population. Manhattan is 45%. 2678 votes have been counted in Brooklyn (98% reporting). 23570 votes have been counted in Manhattan (94% reporting). How bad is it? Even though he won Brooklyn -- where more people live -- 51-49, but lost Manhattan 94-6, Rosenberg got more actual votes in Manhattan

[Suburbia]

For NY-13 it looks like Espaillat will win. It looks like the African American power in Harlem is fading.

[The Other Castro]

99.4% in, Anna Throne-Holst leading Dave Calone by 31 votes.

[Suburbia]

For NY-13 Assemblyman Wright wants an investigation into voter suppression.

[Holmes]

99.4% in, Anna Throne-Holst leading Dave Calone by 31 votes.

24 votes now. One more district (precinct?) left to report.

[Ebsy]

For NY-13 Assemblyman Wright wants an investigation into voter suppression.

Sure, that's going to happen.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Winners for tonight:

OK Sen L: Murphy
OK-01 R: Bridenstine
OK-02: Harris-till (D)/ Mullin (R)
OK-03 R: Lucas
OK-04: Owen (D)/Cole (R)
OK-05 D: McAffrey & Guild RUNOFF
OK-05 R: Russell
CO-01 D: Degette
CO-03 R: Tipton
CO-05: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/Lamborn (R)
CO-SEN R: Glenn
NY-1 D: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NY-3 D: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NY-5 D: Meeks
NY-7 D: Velazquez
NY-10 D: Nadler
NY-12 D: C. Maloney
NY-13 D: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NY-15 D: Serrano
NY-18 R: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NY-19: Teachout (D)/Faso (R)
NY-22 R: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NY-24 D: Deacon
UT-3 R: Chaffetz
UT-SEN D: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
UT-GOV R: Herbert

[Vosem]

Teachout, Faso, and Deacon all have checks. Throne-Holst leads Calone by 24 votes with 1 precinct left. Suozzi leads Stern 35-26, with what's out being in Nassau County, where Stern is in fourth; however, what's out may be Great Neck, in which case it should provide Anna Kaplan (currently at 16%, in fourth) a massive boost. Unless it's already accounted for. Espaillat still leads Wright 37-34, with 9 left; 5 of these are Manhattan and 4 are Bronx, so maybe Wright will come a little closer, but Espaillat deserves the check at this point. Tenney is at 41, Wells 32, Phillips 27, with 80% reporting; everything that's out is either Madison County (still nothing in at all) or from a county where Wells leads, so he should approach Tenney by the end, though it seems like her game to lose at this point.

[The Other Castro]

There's probably over 1000 absentee votes in NY-1, so this isn't being decided tonight.

[Xing]

Dang, NY-1 is ultratight. We won't know for a while.

[Eraserhead]

So happy for Zephyr! What a blowout!

[The Other Castro]

Last district came in in NY-1. Unofficial results:
Anna Throne-Holst - 5446 (29 vote lead)
David Calone - 5417

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More Winners:

CO-05 D: Plowright
NY-18 R: Oliva
NY-22 R: Tenney

[Vosem]

Tenney won and has a checkmark. Suozzi and Espaillat don't have checkmarks yet but it's hard to see them losing. Calone vs. Throne-Holst is going to be determined by absentee votes and recounting, but Throne-Holst finishes tonight 29 votes ahead.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wished Dems had seriously recruited for the 22nd in New York - currently Tenney is leading Wells 46-45. Tenney is super far-right - this is an R+3 district. Wells has the endorsement of current incumbent Richard Hanna, very moderate Republican who withdrew because he knew he'd probably lose to Tenney in a re-match.

They did, they're running Kim Myers.

A joke candidate

Lol, she was a top recruit.  Tenney's nomination basically makes this D +1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Suozzi wins NY-3 D

[This account no longer in use.]

So happy for Zephyr! What a blowout!

But what about Will Yandik? He's S U P P L E.