2016 Congressional Primaries

[smoltchanov]

^ IMHO - very unlikely, but after Cantor in 2014 i prefer to be cautious and don't deny such possibility outright..

[IceSpear]

Bold prediction: Reality is somewhere between that and the polls that showed Ryan up 60-70 points.

[Maxwell]

As much as I want to cheer on the Republicans ousting yet another Speaker of the House, I f'ing hate this Nehlen guy. Going up to Paul Ryan's residence and yelling "LOL WALLZ (((Mark Zuckberg)))" makes me a little sick in my stomach.

[smoltchanov]

Bold prediction: Reality is somewhere between that and the polls that showed Ryan up 60-70 points.

Right now i expect Nehlen to get 30-35%.

[Miles]

^ Which is also what Trump got there.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Certified CA Results: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/june-7-2016-presidential-primary-election/statement-vote/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Late Ballots changed a few things in CA. Bolded winners won because of late ballots.

CA winners:

(District) 1: LaMalfa(R) and Reed (D)
2: Huffman (D) and Mensing(R)
3: Garamendi (D) and Cleek (R)
4: McClintock (R) and Derlet (D)
5: Thompson (D) and Santamaria (R)
6: Matsui (D) and Evans (R)
8: Cook (R) and Ramirez (D)
9:  McNearney (D) and Amador (R)
10: Denham (R) and Eggman (D)
12: Pelosi (D) and Picus (I)
16: Costa (D) and Tacherra (R)
17: Khanna (D) and Honda (D)
18: Eshoo (D) and Fox (R)
20: Panetta (D) and Lucius (R)
21: Valadao (R) and Huerta (D)
22: Nunes (R) and Campos (D)
23: McCarthy (R) and Reed (D)
24: Carbajal (D) and Fareed (R)
25: Knight (R) and Cafario (D)
27: Chu (D) and Orwell (R)
28: Schiff (D) and Solis (R)
29: Cardenas (D) and Alarcon (D)
30: Sherman (D) and Reed(R)
31: Aguilar (D) and Chabot (R)
32: Napolitano (D) and Hernandez(D)
36: Ruiz (D) and Stone (R)
37: Bass (D) and Wiggins(D)
38: Sanchez  (D) and Downing (R)
41: Takano (D) and Shepherd  (R)
42: Calvert (R) and Sheridan (D)
44: Hall (D) and Barragan (D)
45: Walters (R) and Varaseth (D)
46: Correa (D) and Nguyen(D)
47: Lowenthal (D) and Whallon (R)
48: Rahrabacher (R) and Savary (D)
49: Issa (R) and Applegate (D)
50: Hunter (R) and Malloy (D)
51: Vargas (D) and Hidalgo (R)
52: Peters (D) and Gitsham (R)
53: Davis (D) and Veltmeyer (R)
Senate: Harris (D) and Sanchez (D)

We're less than two weeks away from the GA-3 R Runoff on July 26th, and less than three weeks away from KS/MI/MO/WA on August 2nd and TN on August 4th.

[IceSpear]

So some observations from the final CA results...

CA-07 (Ami Bera, D, Even PVI): Won 54-46. He should be fine in November, particularly with Trump on the top of the ticket and a D vs. D Senate race possibly hurting Republican turnout.

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R, R+1 PVI): Denham got 48%, but another Republican got 10%, so this seems to be an unlikely flip, barring a Democratic wave. It's quite surprising the Republicans won the vote here 58-42 despite the Democratic primary getting far more votes overall than the Republican one. Denham had quite a bit of crossover support.

CA-17 (Mike Honda, D, D+20 PVI): Khanna (also a D) won 39-37. Hard to predict what happens here.

CA-21 (David Valadao, R, D+2 PVI): Valadao won 54-46 (combined Democratic vote share.) Initially Valadao won much bigger, but late ballots skewed heavily Democratic. Valadao is a slight favorite, but he could definitely lose.

CA-25 (Steve Knight, R, R+3 PVI): 56-44 combined vote share. Could fall in a wave.

CA-36 (Raul Ruiz, D, R+1 PVI): Extremely impressive 58-42 win. Should be safe.

CA-39 (Ed Royce, R, R+5 PVI): 60-40 win. There was some talk he could be in trouble, but with a margin like that it's doubtful, even in a wave.

CA-49 (Issa, R, R+4 PVI): Obviously the big surprise of the night, with Issa only winning 51-46. The remaining vote went to an independent candidate. The question is if Dems are willing to devote resources here, considering Issa has an essentially unlimited bank account to draw from.

CA-52 (Peters, D, D+2 PVI): 59-41 win. Safe D.

[JerryArkansas]

CA-49 (Issa, R, R+4 PVI): Obviously the big surprise of the night, with Issa only winning 51-46. The remaining vote went to an independent candidate. The question is if Dems are willing to devote resources here, considering Issa has an essentially unlimited bank account to draw from.

That Independent ran on a extremely liberal platform mostly surrounding Pot.  So most if not all of them would have  gone to Applegate.  51-49 win instead.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today marks the beginning of the end of the July "primary offseason". No big list today, just one state - GA - and one congressional race - the 3rd district runoff.

Polls close at 7 Eastern. Results will be here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/GA_Page_0726.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Vosem]

Ferguson and Crane are both pretty good candidates and I'd be cool with Ferguson winning on the whole, but rooting for Crane, who has Cruz's endorsement and would be a voice in the fight against those people.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early vote coming in - Crane is up 1044 to 751.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still just early vote - Ferguson up 3097 to 2317.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ferguson up 60-40 with 4% in.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Coming in much more quickly now. Up to a quarter of the vote, Ferguson ahead 59-41.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ferguson ahead 56-44 with 57% in.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ferguson up 55-45 with 66% in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Are the remaining precincts Crane-friendly? He needs 62% of the remaining vote to win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

73% in, Ferguson up 54-46.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Crane is such a schmuck.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

80% in, Ferguson still up 54-46. This race appears to be over.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

U.S. House - District 3 - GOP Runoff
West Central
192 of 192 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ferguson, Drew   GOP   22,813   54%
Crane, Mike   GOP   19,490   46%


------------------

Next Primaries are on August 2nd in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington State.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Contested Races Tomorrow by Closing Time

5PM PST/8 EST
KS-3 R&D, KS-4 D, MI-7 R, MI-10 R, MI-13 D, MI-14 D, MO-Senate R&D, MO-1 D&R MO-2 R, MO-3 R, MO-4 R&D, MO-5&D R, MO-6 R&D, MO-7 R&D, MO-8 R, MO-Governor D&R
KS Senate R&D, KS-1 R, MI-1 R&D*

8PM PST/11 EST (Top two Primary, top two winners advance to November ballot regardless of party)
WA-Senate, WA-1-10, WA-Governor


(*Some Polls in these races will close at 5/8 however not all close until 6/9)



 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ MO-2 R, MO-3 R, MO-4 D, MO-5 D, MO-7 D are also contested

Results Links for tomorrow:

Kansas: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/kansas

Missouri: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/missouri

Michigan: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/michigan

Washington: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/washington

--- Note: Due to WA's mail in system, if any races are close, we may not know the winners until as late as August 16th. See http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm for post-election-night results. The 'Voter Turnout' Tab will show when the next update is for each county.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

^ MO-2 R, MO-3 R, MO-4 D, MO-5 D, MO-7 D are also contested

Results Links for tomorrow:

Kansas: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/kansas

Missouri: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/missouri

Michigan: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/michigan

Washington: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/washington

--- Note: Due to WA's mail in system, if any races are close, we may not know the winners until as late as August 16th. See http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm for post-election-night results. The 'Voter Turnout' Tab will show when the next update is for each county.

Thanks for adding the links and other contested races . I only saw the one candidate listed in Wikipedia for those races. Which races do you see as most interesting?