2016 Congressional Primaries

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David Trone and Anthony Brown are definitely the two best guys in the Maryland Democratic Party to send to the House of Representatives and groom for future higher office.

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Is that in your opinion as a conservative or seriously? Because Brown was a disaster when he ran for Governor.

That was clearly sarcasm.

David Trone and Anthony Brown are definitely the two best guys in the Maryland Democratic Party to send to the House of Representatives and groom for future higher office.

Brown won, but Trone lost!!!

Raskin will be an amazing Congressman!

Considering your point of view, Raskin will indeed be an amazing Congressman. I thought Trone, as a former Rick Perry supporter, was the least bad of the options here myself, though I am obviously nothing like your typical Maryland Democratic primary voter

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Am I alone as a Republican who is perfectly fine with Banks but who would have serious reservations about Hollingsworth if he lived in that district?

I think Hollingsworth/Yoder starts out as Leans R at best, by the way, and Yoder has a very real chance at pulling this off.

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5/2682 Precincts Reporting

Copeland 67%
Barksdale 16%
Coyne 16%

Lel. Also, Grayson is at 0 votes so far, with Isakson leading Bacallao 79-21

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First two precincts, in both races, have Arrington and Gonzalez leading 51-49. Strongly pulling for Arrington over Robertson, of course.

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So-called frontrunner, St. Sen. Mike Crane, has fallen behind a some dude into fourth place in GA-3. Tiny-village mayor and wealthy dentist (future lionkiller?) Drew Ferguson and businessman Jim Pace seem very likely to go to a runoff (Ferguson leads Crane 35-22, with the unheralded Chip Flanagan at 15 and Crane at 14).

Republican incumbents facing primary challenges: Loudermilk at 61, Collins at 62, Graves at 77, Scott at 81, Allen at 82. There may be a solid floor of about 15%ish (a little more, perhaps) that will vote against the Republican incumbent in a primary, for any challenger, no matter what.

In Texas, Gonzalez leads Palacios 51-49 in district 15, with 0.7% in. With 2.5% in in district 19, Robertson leads Arrington 50-50, or by 10 votes (out of 1,134 counted so far).

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Karnes County is coming in >70% for Gonzalez, who now leads 60-40. Meanwhile, Arrington has narrowed Robertson's lead to 7 votes, from 10.

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Crane has recovered nicely as his home base has come in. He's now down 30-23 to Ferguson, with Pace at 21. With 8% in, Robertson leads 52-48. More than half of his lead comes from a >60% performance in Howard County. Still none of Lubbock itself in yet.

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Jodey Arrington is the projected winner for TX-19 R.

Fantastic news! Glen Robertson was a populistic Trump-type. Good to see Republicans across the nation continuing to reject that brand of politics.

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With 84% in, Crane takes the lead in GA-3 (the presumed frontrunner, he had been down in fourth place behind a some dude early in the count). Currently, the numbers are Crane 27, Ferguson 26, Pace 24, with two to advance to a runoff. Very close.

No incumbent was held under 60, or below a 35-point margin over their nearest challenger. Georgia isn't fertile ground for primary challenges, at least at the moment. Isakson won 77-12-11, but it seems Bacallao (in third place) may have carried Fayette County; it's also possible the AP is in error here.

With 72% in statewide for the Democratic Senate nomination, Barksdale leads Copeland 53-42. Still unclear if Barksdale can pull this off without a runoff; this'll also be a fascinating map to look at.

With 37% in TX-15, Vicente Gonzalez is leading Sonny Palacios 72-28 (!) even though this began as a seemingly very narrow race. Apparently Guadalupe County (presumably Palacios' base, since he only lost there 52-48 even as no other county gave less than 2/3 of the vote to Gonzalez) was the first to count, giving us the illusion of a close race here. Gonzalez should be getting the checkmark any minute now.

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Very early results from North Carolina (first few precincts reporting): Holding 51, Brannon 24, Ellmers 24 in NC-2; Jones 64, Law 20, Griffin 16 in NC-3; Johnson 39, Harris 33, Pittenger 28 in NC-9. No results yet from NC-12 or 13. Foxx, Meadows, Walker all over 70.

EDIT: With 0 precincts reporting, former Libertarian Party activist Tim D'Annunzio is leading Richard Hudson in NC-8, 55-45. What is this?

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I like the early Jones SMASHING Griffin results. Hope it stays like that.

Can't say I agree with that, but Jones is far from the worst guy in the House.

Also, Pittenger is up to a 42-Harris 30-Johnson 27 lead; this is entirely on the strength of Pittenger being over 50 in Mecklenburg County and Johnson in third there, since Johnson leads everywhere else.

Ellmers has nudged ahead of Brannon, but Holding is still at 51 while his opponents are mired in the 20s.

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First results in from NC-12 and NC-13: Alma Adams leads Malcolm Graham in NC-12, 44-31, with everyone else irrelevant. In NC-13, Hank Henning is at 29, John Blust is at 24, my boy Ted Budd is at 16, and everyone else is under 10. Will be happy with anyone but Kay Daly (currently at...2%!), who tried to run a campaign explicitly tying herself to the Orange Menace.

EDIT: Holding up to 54 in NC-2; Brannon again beating Ellmers. D'Annunzio is up 54-46 over Hudson. Pittenger up 41-31 over Harris. Budd has moved into a lead in NC-13 with 20% (!) of the vote; Henning is at 18%; Howard and Blust at 14%; Barrett at 10%. This race will be a nightmare to keep track of.

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Budd still leads, but he's down to 15% (!!). 4 different candidates are within 5 percentage points of him. The odious Daly is still at 2% where she belongs. Hudson leading D'Annunzio 52-48. Pittenger leading Johnson and Harris 38-32-30, in that order.

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Budd at 18% with a 3-way pile-up behind him at 10%. No movement in any other race.

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First results in from New Jersey: with less than 150 votes in, Leonard Lance is beating David Larsen 70-28 -- Larsen came within 54-46 of beating Lance in 2016, but was taken more seriously this time around. Scott Garrett is comfortably over 80 in his primary.

Back in NC, Ellmers is back out ahead of Brannon (of course Holding is way ahead of both, 52-24-24). Really hope Brannon pulls it out for the sheer delight of Ellmers coming in third. Jones at 67 with 17% in; like Lance, he barely won in 2014. Alma Adams, the D incumbent whose district was redrawn to leave her hundreds of miles outside of it, is nevertheless up to 43-30 over local Malcolm Graham in NC-12. No movement elsewhere (so Hudson is still up 4 points over D'Annunzio, Pittenger 6 points over Johnson, and Budd is leading by 8 points even though he is at only 18%).

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In NC-8, Hudson is up 56-44 over D'Annunzio, and he's at 78 in the only county which has actual precincts, and not just early vote, reporting. Thinking this was an overblown fluke -- either a computer error or just very unrepresentative votes counted first. In NC-9, where Pittenger is in actual danger, his challenger Johnson is edging closer, and Pittenger leads 37-32.

AP has given Holding the checkmark.  off and don't come back, Renee Ellmers

EDIT: And as soon as I said that, 14 precincts in Cumberland County (NC-8) report; D'Annunzio leads 52-48 in the county and Hudson is leading him just 53-47 overall. Still some very unusual geographic polarization in the county results

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More coming in from New Jersey: D incumbent David Norcross in NJ-1, who felt the need to air attack ads against some dude opponent Alex Law, is beating him 79-21. You can't be too careful, but this was a pointless waste of money. With more votes in (but still no precincts) in NJ-7, establishmenty incumbent Lance is leading tea-party-ish challenger Larsen 56-41. This was a single-digit race between them in 2014.

In North Carolina, Jones is ticking up to 68%. Should be getting the checkmark any second. Hudson up 63-37 over D'Annunzio now; D'Annunzio's >80% in Stanly County magically changed to a >80% lead for Hudson. D'Annunzio is still winning two counties (though neither by freakish margins) and this is a big underperformance for Hudson, but it's not quite as eye-popping as it was earlier, and Hudson should be fine for 2016 (but could be a possible primary target in future cycles, perhaps).

Pittenger leads Johnson 35-33, with Harris at 32. That'll go down the wire. Adams is leading Graham 42-30, though just 5% is reporting here. In NC-13, Matt McCall has been boosted by a dump from Iredell County, where he is county registrar; Budd leads McCall 18-14. Jason Walser is at 10 and everyone else is in single digits.

EDIT: Johnson LEADS Pittenger, 34-33, with Harris less than 100 votes behind at 33. Jones has the checkmark. Hudson up to 66.

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Johnson has taken the lead in nc-9

Who is he? Freedom caucus ?

Self-described as an "antiestablishment conservative", though he's a county commissioner so he prolly has some ties to some local big-shots.

Apparently, what's out is favorable to Pittenger; Mecklenburg County, the most populous and his home base, is only 14% in and Pittenger>50% there. He's in third place everywhere else, amusingly (in Bladen County, which is finished counting, he's at 7%. Lol.)

EDIT: At this moment, Mecklenburg is still only 16% in, and Pittenger has every chance at coming back and winning, but at this moment he is in third place behind Johnson and Harris, 34-33-33.

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Hudson is back down to leading D'Annunzio 58-42. With 95% reporting in Cumberland County, D'Annunzio leads there 54-42; this is the main base of his support.

Mark Harris, a hardcore SoCon, is leading in NC-9, 34-33-33, leading establishment-flavored incumbent Pittenger and vaguely antiestablishmentarian Johnson by less than a percentage point each.

In NC-13, Ted Budd leads Julia Howard 19-12. Jason Walser is at 10, with all other candidates in single-digits. Have we ever had a primary where the winner got less than 20% of the vote? I can recall lots of crowded ones with winners in the 20s, but this seems like a new record.

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Are any of the new NC districts (other than the Dem-held 1st, 4th, and 12th) competitive? Has Cook released new PVI's for them?

No. The districts are all safe as the previous ones; the judge's problem with the old map was specific to certain sections which were declared racially motivated, and it was possible to draw just as effective Democratic vote sinks while adhering to the judge's demands. The net effect here is simply swapping out Trump-endorsed Ellmers for whoever wins the NC-13 primary (currently CfG-endorsed Budd).

EDIT: Hudson leads D'Annunzio 63-37; Cumberland County, where D'Annunzio was strongest (and in fact won outright, 54-46) is now all in, so Hudson is likely to improve from here on out. Harris is beating Pittenger and Johnson 35-33-32 in NC-9, but this is also mostly Cumberland County fueled; Harris is over 50 there while leading nowhere else. (What is up with that county, by the way?). Still 42% of Mecklenburg left, but later Mecklenburg returns haven't been as favorable to Pittenger as earlier ones. He should still pull this out, but he'll be below 40.

Budd is up to 21; his nearest opponent, McCall, is at 12.

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With 78% in from Mecklenburg County and only 22% left to go, Harris still leads Pittenger 35-34. 11 precincts out. 3 precincts are also out in Robeson County (where Harris is destroying Johnson and Pittenger is a non-factor) and 5 in Scotland County (where Johnson has a lead on Harris who has a lead on Pittenger). Pittenger is still favored here but a possible Harris victory is starting to come into focus.

EDIT: Hudson gets the checkmark over D'Annunzio; he currently leads 64-36. Not as bad as it looked in the beginning, but there is still some geographic polarization in the results; there are counties where D'Annunzio is >50, and counties where Hudson is >80. A stronger candidate than D'Annunzio may be able to put up a real challenge here.

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Alma Adams wins NC-12 D. Big victory for incumbents.

Not for every incumbent.

Also, with 84% reporting in Mecklenburg, Harris is still leading Pittenger 35-34. There are also still 3 precincts in Robeson County and 5 in Scotland County still out, which should all be unfavorable to Pittenger, while 7 are left in Mecklenburg. This'll go down the wire, and Ellmers could well have a buddy by the end of the night.

Ted Budd leads his closest opponent, Julia Howard, 21-11 with 78% reporting. Unless that 22% is concentrated in someone's geographic base, Budd should be getting the checkmark soon.

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So are the rules the same for House primaries where the person has to get above 40% in order to avoid a primary?

Normally yes, but for this cycle only the legislature has waived the requirement (the House primaries were delayed by redistricting to the normal runoff date, today, and they decided not to pay for later elections). 21% will be an outright victory for Budd if that's all first place takes.

Pittenger up 35-34 over Harris. 3 Mecklenburg precincts (strong Pittenger, Harris in second), 3 Robeson precincts (strong Harris, Johnson in second, Pittenger way back), and 5 Scotland precincts (narrow Johnson lead over Harris, Pittenger way back) still out. Coming down the wire. Pittenger's lead in actual votes is 148 of them.

EDIT: Just as I say that, 2 Mecklenburg precincts report. Pittenger is now up 162 votes. 1 favorable Mecklenburg precinct left, and 8 unfavorable ones. Precincts seem to be rather small in NC though; expect it to tighten, but this may be a strong enough lead to hold.

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Every county in NC-13 is finished but Guilford, and Ted Budd is leading Julia Howard 21-11. Guilford, which is only 62% in, is not a favorable county for Budd; he's in third place there at just 15, behind John Blust at 25 countywide (8 district-wide) and Hank Henning at 20 countywide (8 district-wide as well). I would say Budd is approaching the point, in spite of the very low percentage of the vote he's received, where his margin and the pattern of the outstanding vote justify a checkmark; Blust may end up in second place when all is said and done but I can't see him making up a 13-point deficit based on what's left.

With Pittenger up 1% or 162 votes over Harris in NC-9, and most of what's left looking decently Harris-favorable, the folks there have decided to take a ganja break. This one could conceivably still be unclear long after tonight is done.