Yes, We Can

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: OBAMA SET TO MAKE HISTORY

Barack Obama becomes first Pres since FDR to run for third term

"I am in and running. I want to serve as your President four more years." President Barack Obama made his intentions clear and announced his running for a historic third term. Obama, who successfully defeated Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, is riding high on decreasing unemployment and a revived US economy and by most political pundits is considered a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. Obama becomes the first President since Franklin Roosevelt, who in 1940 ran for a third term. No other incumbent President has seriously ran for a third term. Bill Clinton briefly considered a bid, after being reelected in 1996, but the Lewinsky Scandal ended any discussion.

Obama faces, so far no other candidates in the Democratic primary. Once considered a front runner should Obama pass on a run, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has declined to challenge her former boss and one time primary opponent. "I support the President and will support his reelection."

On the Republican side, a long list of candidates has emerged, including Former Texas Governor and 2012 candidate Rick Perry. Along with Perry, Ohio Governor John Kasich has announced his campaign. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is considering a second bid, as is 2012 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Other prospective candidates include Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Former VA Senator Jim Webb is Running for President

Jim Webb became the first Democrat to announce he is running for President, challenging Barack Obama for the nomination. "I think the Democratic Party needs a change. I think we need to return to what and who we were once were."

Polling for the Democratic Nomination: NBC/WSJ

Barack Obama: 80%
Jim Webb: 4%
Other/Undecided: 16%

Polling for the Republican Nomination: NBC/WSJ

Paul Ryan: 11%
Marco Rubio: 10%
Sarah Palin: 7%
Chris Christie: 5%
John Kasich: 3%
Newt Gingrich: 2%
Rick Perry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 61%

[NeverAgain]

So no 22nd Amendment?

[NHI]

Rubio Ready to Challenge Obama

From the convention center in Miami, Florida Senator Marco Rubio made clear his plans to become the Republican nominee, declaring his bid for President. "We have one of the most decisive Presidents in US, saying he wants to 'unite America', my friends that is not a recipe for success, it's ground hog's day all over again. President Obama has let down our country and we are ready to turn the page on the last eight years and start fresh." Rubio enters the race as a top contender, as the Republican Party looks to shake off the failed candidacies of John McCain and Mitt Romney by embracing a younger, more diverse electorate.

Donald Trump is Running for President

Four years after suggesting the President was not born in this country, Donald Trump now looks to replace him by announcing his bid for the Republican nomination and vowing to "Make America Great again." After years of toying with a bid, Trump entered the 2016 race, promising to tell the truth and speak his mind on the issues of the day.

Paul Ryan: "We need to be the Party of ideas"

Pledging to make the Republican party, one of ideas and bold solutions, Congressman and Former 2012 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan announced on Capitol Hill his bid to become the Republican nominee. Ryan's decision to run came as a surprise to many, who believed he lacked the fire in the belly and with many in the establishment clearing the way for Rubio, the dynamic sets up an interesting race between the two young contenders.

Christie Says "NO"

Dogged by the ongoing investigation surrounding the so-called Bridge Scandal, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced he would not seek the Republican nomination, saying he was committed to focusing on the job of governor.

Palin Continues to Flirt with Running in '16

Sarah Palin is seriously considering a run for President. She has chided Florida Senator Marco Rubio over his support in the Gang of 8 bill which would have delivered amnesty to 11 million illegal immigrants, and she has also expressed skepticism over Congressman Paul Ryan's fiscal conservatism. Of the candidates in the race, she stated she admires Donald Trump's ability to "tell it like it is" and Rick Perry for his strong leadership in Texas. Palin will decide by the end summer if she will challenge President Obama. When asked if she could beat him she replied, "without a doubt!"

Also Running: Kasich and Perry

Jeb Bush Backs Rubio, Calls for a "New Generation of Leaders"

Long-shot: Scott Brown is running for President

Fresh off his convincing reelection to the United States in 2014, after being reelected in the Special Election to replace John Kerry, Scott Brown is announcing his campaign to be the next President of the United States. While much moderate and some would say liberal than his fellow rivals, Brown's appeal is especially resonate with the blue collar working class which propelled his campaigns in the bluest of the blue states Massachusetts.

Polling for the Republican Nomination: CNN/ORC

Paul Ryan: 22%
Marco Rubio: 18%
Donald Trump: 7%
Scott Brown: 6%
John Kasich: 4%
Rick Perry: 3%
Other/Undecided: 39%

Alan Grayson Jumps into 2016 Race, Calls for a Change

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson, announced his campaign to the Democratic Party's standard bear. Grayson, an outspoken critic of the Obama Administration declared himself a "true progressive and Barack Obama a phony." Grayson joins Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb as the so-far and likely only challengers to President Obama. Token opposition, many Democrats believe Barack Obama will have no difficulty in locking up his party's support.

Polling for the Democratic Nomination: CNN/ORC

Barack Obama: 78%
Jim Webb: 5%
Alan Grayson: 2%
Undecided/Other: 15%

Iowa Caucus Poll: Republican Nomination

Paul Ryan: 27%
Marco Rubio: 18%
Donald Trump: 10%
Rick Perry: 4%
Scott Brown: 2%
John Kasich: 1%
Undecided/Other: 38%

Iowa Caucus Poll: Democratic Nomination

Barack Obama: 81%
Jim Webb: 3%
Alan Grayson: 2%
Undecided/Other: 14%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: Republican Nomination

Paul Ryan: 20%
Marco Rubio: 18%
Scott Brown: 17%
Donald Trump: 11%
John Kasich: 4%
Rick Perry: 1%
Undecided/Other: 29%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: Democratic Nomination

Barack Obama: 71%
Jim Webb: 6%
Alan Grayson: 1%
Undecided/Other: 22%

South Carolina Primary Poll: Republican Nomination

Marco Rubio: 18%
Paul Ryan: 16%
Donald Trump: 9%
Rick Perry: 6%
John Kasich: 2%
Scott Brown: 1%
Undecided/Other: 48%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: Democratic Nomination

Barack Obama: 84%
Jim Webb: 5%
Alan Grayson: 0%
Undecided/Other: 11%

General Election:

Obama vs Perry (Obama +11)

Perry: 39% Obama: 50%

Obama vs Ryan (Obama +7)

Obama: 48% Ryan: 41%

Obama vs. Trump (Obama +13)

Trump: 38% Obama: 51%

Obama vs. Rubio (Obama +6)

Rubio: 43%  Obama: 49%

Obama vs. Kasich (Obama +10)

Kasich: 40% Obama: 50%

Obama vs. Brown: (Obama +9)

Obama: 49% Brown: 40%

[NHI]

A Brief History on Presidents & The "Third Term"

No President, since Franklin Roosevelt has successfully waged and won a third term to the office of President. While an efforts was made with the proposed 22nd Amendment to place a limit on Presidential terms to no more than two, the measure failed and the length of Presidential terms has remained the same. Presidents since FDR, who served a third and was elected to a fourth have followed the George Washington tradition of stepping down after two terms, but over the years a few President have considered however briefly a third run at the White House.

President Dwight Eisenhower, having been reelected by landslides in 1952 and 1956, began laying the groundwork for a possible third run in 1960 against John F. Kennedy, but Eisenhower's health was the primary factor in the President's decision to pass on reelection. Polls at the time indicated Eisenhower, while popular would have faced a tough competition from Kennedy or any Democrat. Vice President Richard Nixon went onto narrowly lose the election Kennedy.

Prior to his resignation in 1974, Richard Nixon, who was reelected with 61 percent of the vote in 1972 planned on running again in 1976, expecting a challenge from Senator Ted Kennedy. However, Nixon's plans of running for a third term ended with the onset of the Watergate Scandal and his subsequent resignation.

Ronald Reagan loyalist believe had the 40th President decided to enter the 1988 Presidential election he would have soundly defeated Michael Dukakis and likely ensured Republican control of the White House, at least through 1997. Reagan, while popular faced the fallout from the Iran-Contra Scandal as well as questions over his age and health. His staff believed Reagan, the Great communicator could overcome what they considered as small blips, however it was Reagan's wife Nancy who put the kibosh on a third term, saying flatly, "No way, no how." Reagan passed on a bid and was succeeded by George H.W. Bush, who subsequently lost his reelection in 1992.

The Lewinsky Scandal no doubt ended Bill Clinton's considerations and plans for a third run at the Presidency. While he left office immensely popular, the 43rd President believed it was best for him and the country to pass on third term. His wife Hillary Clinton was elected to in her own right to the United States Senate, from New York and he became a revered elder statesman in the Democratic Party. Prior to the 9/11 attacks he was strongly considering challenging President Bush in 2004, after the bitter and controversial 2000 election. Early polls showed the former President leading the incumbent 52% to 43%.

[bagelman]

Is Obama more successful as President ITTL or has his performance been the same?

[beaver2.0]

Very interesting.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

four more years!
four more years!
four more years!
four more years!

[NHI]

Obama Launches Reelection Campaign

Pres. Obama kicks off his campaign in Illinois, promising to "finish what we started".

Surrounded by throngs of supporters and his family by his side, President Barack Obama announced his campaign for a third term. In a short speech, Obama laid out his vision for the next four years. "Let's finish what we started," the President said to cheers. "We've come so far America, we've accomplished so much, but there is more to do. The promise land is upon us." In a line sure to anger his Republican rivals, the President spoke of transforming America. "We can finally fulfill our goal of transforming this country. Transforming our education system, transforming our energy sector, transforming our tax code. Making our country, stronger, making our country whole."

In a second terms mostly defined by gridlock, the President's singular accomplishment, aside from the historic Iranian Nuclear Deal is a major gun reform bill, aimed at curbing recent gun violence in the country. What started as an executive order, issued by the President in January 2013, crescendo into a new law tackling universal background checks and greater enforcement of existing gun laws. While bold in its action, the law was seen as hurting the Democrats in 2014, which resulted in Republicans retaking the U.S. Senate. Republicans are looking to make the gun law a central focus of the campaign, with many of the top Republicans attacking the President over the law for going too far.

Is he Qualified to be President? Trump winning over Republicans, but many Skeptical

Donald Trump has emerged as a strong contender for the Republican nomination, despite having no political experience or held a position in government. However, the GOP candidate is gaining traction over his ability to speak his mind and represents a clear contrasts from Barack Obama. Still, many Republicans are skeptical over Trump's electability in a general election. Polls show him losing to Obama by anywhere from 10 to 15 points. Currently Trump is polling third for the Republican nomination.

Ryan: A Fractured Front runner

The front runner for the Republican nomination, but Paul Ryan is failing to win over the conservative base. Following his lackluster performance as Mitt Romney's running mate and controversial positions, many conservatives are looking elsewhere in field that includes Marco Rubio as the emerging alternative to Ryan as the defacto establishment candidate. While the Ryan campaign is running a national effort, they are placing most of their eggs in the Iowa Caucuses, believing a win there will set them up for success down the road. Current polls in Iowa put Ryan in the lead with 25 percent of the vote.

Rubio, Trump Shine in First GOP Debate

Marco Rubio and Donald Trump emerged as the clear winners of the first Republican Debate on Fox News. The Florida Senator emphasized his personal story, as well as an inspirational message, which has won over many Republican voters and those in the establishments who see Rubio as the strongest candidate to take on President Obama in November.

Expectations were low for Donald Trump, but the New York Businessman defied expectations by delivering a commanding performance where he offered himself as a fighter and truth teller, willing and ready to take the fight to Obama.

Paul Ryan was largely hurt in the Republican debate. He faced criticism over the Ryan-Murray Budget, as well as his opposition to the government shutdown.

Scott Brown, the Massachusetts Senator was largely a non-factor in the debate. He faced scrutiny over supporting the Presidential controversial gun laws, but rebuffed any criticism that he was anti-second amendment, offering an explanation that he voted how the people of his state wanted him to vote.

Polls immediately following the debate put Rubio and Trump ahead with 30 percent and 23 percent respectively.

Rubio Takes Lead for the Nomination

Fox News Poll: Republican Nomination (Late August 2016)

Marco Rubio: 24%
Paul Ryan: 19%
Donald Trump: 13%
Scott Brown: 7%
John Kasich: 3%
Rick Perry: 2%
Undecided/Other: 32%

Sarah Palin Declines to Run For President, Refuses to Endorse

Sarah Palin announced she would not seek the Republican nomination in 2016, but refused to endorse any of the candidates running, saying to her fellow Republicans. "Be bold and take a stand against this corrupt administration."

Scott Brown keeps up the fight in NH

Scott Brown, much like Paul Ryan's effort in Iowa, Brown is staking his campaign on the New Hampshire primary, next door to Massachusetts. Brown, an expert at retail politics looks to make New Hampshire his second home for the duration of the campaign. New Hampshire Republican generally approve of Brown, giving him high marks and a nearly 53 percent approval rating. The only Republican more popular in New Hampshire is Marco Rubio with 57 percent. New Hampshire Republicans have a far less favorable opinion of Paul Ryan with only 44% percent of Republicans.

FOX NEWS: Ryan and Rubio Lead the Republican Field in Early Nominating States

Paul Ryan leads in Iowa and and Michigan, while Marco Rubio leads in NH, SC, NV & FL.

Iowa Republicans: Approval of Republican Candidates

Paul Ryan: 55%
Marco Rubio: 54%
Donald Trump: 44%
Rick Perry: 43%
John Kasich: 42%
Scott Brown: 40%

Iowa Caucus Poll: Fox News (Ryan +3)

Paul Ryan: 26%
Marco Rubio: 23%
Donald Trump: 15%
Rick Perry: 4%
John Kasich: 2%
Scott Brown: 1%
Other/Undecided: 29%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: Fox News (Rubio +4)

Marco Rubio: 20%
Paul Ryan: 16%
Scott Brown: 14%
Donald Trump: 12%
John Kasich: 4%
Rick Perry: 1%
Undecided/Other: 33%

South Carolina Primary Poll: Fox News (Rubio +6)

Marco Rubio: 22%
Paul Ryan: 16%
Donald Trump: 14%
Rick Perry: 6%
John Kasich: 2%
Scott Brown: 1%
Other/Undecided: 39%

Nevada Caucus Poll: Fox News (Rubio +5)

Marco Rubio: 20%
Donald Trump: 15%
Paul Ryan: 13%
Rick Perry: 2%
Scott Brown: 0%
John Kasich: 0%
Other/Undecided: 50%

Michigan Primary Poll: Fox News (Ryan +1)

Paul Ryan: 14%
Marco Rubio: 13%
Donald Trump: 8%
John Kasich: 6%
Scott Brown: 2%
Rick Perry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 56%

Florida Primary Poll: Fox News (Rubio +32)

Marco Rubio: 49%
Donald Trump: 17%
Paul Ryan: 14%
John Kasich: 2%
Rick Perry: 1%
Scott Brown: 1%
Other/Undecided: 16%

Obama Holds Commanding Lead for the Democratic Nod

Despite two challengers, President Obama is in a clear lead to be the Democratic Nominee in 2016.

Fox News Poll: Democratic Nomination (Obama +72)

Barack Obama: 77%
Jim Webb: 5%
Alan Grayson: 1%
Other/Undecided: 17%

Fox News Poll: Iowa Caucus (Obama +79)

Barack Obama: 83%
Jim Webb: 4%
Alan Grayson: 1%
Other/Undecided: 12%

Fox News Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Obama +66)

Barack Obama: 72%
Jim Webb: 6%
Alan Grayson: 2%
Other/Undecided: 20%

Fox News Poll: South Carolina Primary (Obama +84)

Barack Obama: 87%
Jim Webb: 3%
Alan Grayson: 1%
Other/Undecided: 9%

Fox News Poll: Nevada Caucus (Obama +78)

Barack Obama: 79%
Jim Webb: 1%
Alan Grayson: 0%
Other/Undecided: 20%

Fox News Poll: Florida Primary (Obama +71)

Barack Obama: 75%
Alan Grayson: 4%
Jim Webb: 0%
Other/Undecided: 21%

Fox News Poll: Michigan Primary (Obama +78)

Barack Obama: 80%
Alan Grayson: 2%
Jim Webb: 1%
Other/Undecided: 17%

Fox News: Competitive General Election with Ryan, Rubio.

52% of Americans have approve of President Obama's job performance.

Barack Obama: 48% (+6)

Paul Ryan: 42%

Barack Obama: 48% (+5)

Marco Rubio: 43%

Barack Obama: 50% (+10)

Donald Trump: 40%

Barack Obama: 51% (+11)

Rick Perry: 39%

Barack Obama: 48% (+10)

John Kasich: 38%

Barack Obama: 50% (+9)

Scott Brown: 41%

[NHI]

Jim Webb Looks to Reclaim The Democratic Party

Jim Webb is running, in his own words, "to save the Democratic Party." Concerned over the direction of the party under President Obama and Congressional Democrats, Webb believes the key to hold onto the White House is by appealing to the blue collar and working class voters who have been abandoning the Democratic Party in droves. "We cannot keep ignoring these voters. They were once the base of our party. We were too much about minorities at the expense of the working class." Webb's remarks have received some flack from many Democrats including Alan Grayson (another Democrat seeking the nomination) who called the statement, "racist". President Obama has not responded directly, but White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest called the comments "unfortunate and said the President is concerned for and looking out for all Americans."

Webb a moderate Democrat, compared to Alan Grayson and Obama in some areas, has struggled to gain traction in the polls, but is putting in a strong effort in the New Hampshire Primary, as well as in Michigan. "If I can get some momentum in the early states I have a shot." Current national polls have President Obama leading with 75% of the vote.

New Hampshire Primary: Democratic Nomination (CNN/ORC) Obama +63

Barack Obama: 69%
Jim Webb: 6%
Alan Grayson: 0.5%
Other/Undecided: 24.5%

Webb Calls for Debates

"I think it's a shame the President has so far declined to debate. He's leading in the polls. What's the problem?"

Earnest: "The President is doing his job, Debates will come later."

A growing trend on Twitter, the hashtag #DebateObama has forced the White House and Obama Campaign to reevaluate it's position on primary debates.

Grayson Suspends Campaign

Poor fundraising and polling numbers forced Alan Grayson to suspend his campaign for the Democratic nomination, leaving Former VA Senator Jim Webb as the only remaining challenger to Barack Obama. Polling showed Grayson with 0-1 percent poll. He did not offer an endorsement in the primary, but pledged to support the Democratic nominee.

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: (Sept. 2015) (Obama +69)

Barack Obama: 75%
Jim Webb: 6%
Other/Undecided: 19%

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: Iowa Caucus (Sept. 2015)

Barack Obama: 74% (Obama +69)
Jim Webb: 4%
Other/Undecided: 22%

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Sept. 2015)

Barack Obama: 68% (Obama +62)
Jim Webb: 7%
Other/Undecided: 25%

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: South Carolina Primary (Sept. 2015)

Barack Obama: 85% (Obama +80)
Jim Webb: 5%
Other/Undecided: 10%

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: Nevada Caucus (Sept. 2015)

Barack Obama: 83% (Obama +81)
Jim Webb: 2%
Other/Undecided: 15%

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: Florida Primary (Sept. 2015)

Barack Obama: 78% (Obama +75)
Jim Webb: 3%
Other/Undecided: 19%

Democratic Nomination: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll: Michigan Primary (Sept. 2015)

Barack Obama: 76% (Obama +69)
Jim Webb: 7%
Other/Undecided: 17%

[beaver2.0]

Yes!  Jim Webb 2016!

[Enduro]

Is a Paul going to jump in?

[NHI]

Sept. 14

Rand Takes a Stand: Announces Bid for President

Two days before the Republican Debate at the Ronald Reagan Library Kentucky Senator Rand Paul jumped into the presidential race, declaring his campaign with a clear swipe at both Republicans and Democrats. "The establishment in both parties have broken their promises," Paul said to a large enthusiastic crowd. "They've both taken us down a path to nineteen trillion dollars in debt. They've bankrupted across the board and the people of this country have had enough. They've woken up and are saying loudly and boldly, we want our country back!" Paul's late entrance to the race is expected to shakeup the primary as both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio establish themselves as the dominant front runners for the nomination. Paul, a libertarian leaning Republican and long time favorite of the grassroots received the backing of Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who called him "a champion for liberty and freedom and the only candidate who can and will restore the Republic."

Congressman Paul Ryan, meanwhile continues to struggles in national polls, slipping between second and third behind Rubio and Trump, respectively. Ryan's campaign continues to be in turmoil, following a series of staff shakeups and refocusing of campaign offices in the early states.

Fox News: Republican Nomination National Poll

Marco Rubio: 21%
Paul Ryan: 17%
Donald Trump: 16%
Rand Paul: 15%
Scott Brown: 6%
John Kasich: 4%
Rick Perry: 2%
Other/Undecided: 18%

Fox News: Republican Nomination Iowa Caucus (Ryan +1)

Paul Ryan: 22%
Marco Rubio: 21%
Donald Trump: 16%
Rand Paul: 13%
Rick Perry: 4%
John Kasich: 1%
Scott Brown: 1%
Other/Undecided: 22%

Fox News: Republican Nomination New Hampshire Primary (Rubio +4)

Marco Rubio: 20%
Donald Trump: 16%
Rand Paul: 14%
Scott Brown: 11%
Paul Ryan: 10%
John Kasich: 7%
Rick Perry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 21%

[NHI]

Tensions Fly at Reagan GOP Debate as Rand Paul asserts Control

Rand Paul came into second Republican Presidential debate, taking aim at Donald Trump and the GOP establishment. He lambasted Trump as a "blowhard" and "con-artist conservative". Trump deflected Paul's attacks, but later resorted to attacking him on his personal appearance and looks. "Trump is all talk and all bluster, but no specifics." Paul also went over Representative Ryan for what he called, "unprincipled conservatism" and Marco Rubio for supporting "perpetual war in the middle east." In an electorate increasingly looking for an outsider, Paul positioned himself as the ultimate outsider, stressing his famous filibuster on the floor of the Senate and his willingness to take on the political class. "Washington needs change, but it will not get it from the status quo."

Polls conducted afterwards gave Paul high marks in the debate, followed by Marco Rubio.

Trump Faces Increasing Pressure to Provide Specifics

The heat is on, against Donald Trump from his political rivals for the GOP nomination. Florida Senator Marco Rubio echoed Rand Paul's calls of Trump being a "con artist, setting out to swindle the GOP and the American people." He has also faced attacks from Paul Ryan over his lack of specifics, moreover how he intends to have Mexico pay for a wall along the US southern border as well as his turn from apolitical, to liberal and conservative. Paul has even gone after his past business dealings, taking aim at his self-described "A+ business career", specifically attacking the flawed and scandal plagued 'Trump University', over which Trump is at the center of a lawsuit for Fraud.

The Republican contender has tried to ignore the criticisms, lambasting his opponents as "all politicians who are all talk and no action" and setting himself apart of a truth-teller and willingness to shatter the status quo in America. Recent polls, following the latest Republican Debate find Trump has slipped nationally, falling to third, tying with Congressman Ryan who has been eclipsed by Rand Paul for second place.

CNN/ORC: Republican Nomination Poll October 2015 (Rubio +4)

Marco Rubio: 22%
Rand Paul: 18%
Donald Trump: 14%
Paul Ryan: 14%
Scott Brown: 7%
John Kasich: 5%
Rick Perry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 19%

CNN/ORC Poll: Iowa Caucus, Republicans (October 2015) Tied

Marco Rubio: 23%
Paul Ryan: 23%
Rand Paul: 16%
Donald Trump: 15%
Rick Perry: 3%
John Kasich: 1%
Scott Brown: 1%
Other/Undecided: 18%

CNN/ORC Poll: New Hampshire Primary Republicans (October 2015) Rubio +2

Marco Rubio: 20%
Scott Brown: 18%
Rand Paul: 18%
Donald Trump: 14%
Paul Ryan: 9%
John Kasich: 6%
Rick Perry: 0%
Other/Undecided: 15%

CNN/ORC Poll: South Carolina Primary Republicans (October 2015) Rubio +6

Marco Rubio: 24%
Paul Ryan: 18%
Donald Trump: 15%
Rand Paul: 14%
Rick Perry: 3%
Scott Brown: 2%
John Kasich: 2%
Other/Undecided: 24%

CNN/ORC Poll: Nevada Caucus Republicans (October 2015) Rubio +4

Marco Rubio: 24%
Rand Paul: 20%
Donald Trump: 17%
Paul Ryan: 9%
Scott Brown: 3%
Rick Perry: 2%
John Kasich: 1%
Other/Undecided: 24%

CNN/ORC Poll: Florida Primary Republicans (October 2015) Rubio +30

Marco Rubio: 49%
Donald Trump: 19%
Rand Paul: 10%
Paul Ryan: 6%
Scott Brown: 1%
John Kasich: 1%
Rick Perry: 0%
Other/Undecided: 14%

CNN/ORC Poll: Michigan Primary Republicans (October 2015) Rubio +2

Marco Rubio: 17%
Rand Paul: 15%
Paul Ryan: 15%
Donald Trump: 10%
John Kasich: 6%
Scott Brown: 2%
Rick Perry: 0%
Other/Undecided: 35%

CNN/ORC Poll: Ohio Primary Republicans (October 2015) (Kasich +5)

John Kasich: 17%
Marco Rubio: 12%
Paul Ryan: 10%
Donald Trump: 7%
Rand Paul: 6%
Scott Brown: 2%
Rick Perry: 0%
Other/Undecided: 46%

Lindsey Graham Endorses Scott Brown: "He's Ready to be Commander-in-Chief"

Dinging his fellow Senator Marco Rubio, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham announced his support of Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. He praised his service as well as his bipartisan focus in DC. "He's the man for job to defeat Obama and turn out country around." Scott Brown is currently polling at the bottom of the pack in South Carolina.

Romney Backs Ryan

2012 Republican Nominee threw his support behind his one-time running mate, endorsing Paul Ryan in home state of Wisconsin, calling him a "transformative leader, who will change America for the better." Ryan has struggled as of late, losing ground in most national polls and in Iowa.

Webb Brandishes Military Experience

Taking aim over Barack Obama's lack of military record, and as Jim Webb calls, "his military adventurism". Webb stressed his own credentials and experience to lead America in the world. "President Obama is continuing many of the same policies of George Bush and I think he needs to be called out on it." Webb's new stance is in contrast to his attacks on Obama's liberal economic record, and what many sees as a desperate attempt to change the dialogue. Long time Obama aide and former campaign staffer David Axelrod dinged Webb for lacking a clear 'knock against the president' and is instead going for pathetic run-of-the-mill attack lines. "He's too liberal, he's too weak. Now he's George Bush. It's laughable and Senator Webb should stop," Axelrod said en route to Washington, DC.

So far there have been two Republican Presidential debates and zero Democratic ones. Senator Webb continues to attack the President for avoiding to debate him, but so far the White House has been successful in ignoring Webb's attacks.

Democratic Nomination: CNN/ORC Poll (October 2015) Obama +70

Barack Obama: 76%
Jim Webb: 6%
Undecided/Other: 18%

Democratic Nomination: Iowa Caucus CNN/ORC Poll (October 2015) Obama +71

Barack Obama: 75%
Jim Webb: 4%
Other/Undecided: 21%

Democratic Nomination: New Hampshire Primary CNN/ORC Poll: (October 2015) Obama +66

Barack Obama: 73%
Jim Webb: 7%
Other/Undecided: 20%

Democratic Nomination: South Carolina Primary CNN/ORC Poll: (October 2015) Obama +82

Barack Obama: 85%
Jim Webb: 3%
Other/Undecided: 12%

Democratic Nomination: Florida Primary CNN/ORC Poll: (October 2015) Obama +71

Barack Obama: 75%
Jim Webb: 4%
Other/Undecided: 21%

"I think Jim Webb is running a sad campaign. There's just guts to it. He tries to attack Obama, but there's no follow up, there's no follow through. At least make it interesting" -- Chris Matthews

"President Obama has been a successful President. He's been successful for white Americans. He's been successful for black Americans. He's been successful for everybody." -- Donna Brazile

"The Republicans are divided and President Obama is heading for a coronation. Game on!" -- Van Jones.

[BigVic]

The 22nd Amendment was never ratified ITTL.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

That's what Rand should've done IRL smh

[Enduro]

I'm liking this tl a lot so far.

[NHI]

Paul and Rubio becoming the prominent top tier GOP Candidates

Rand Paul's late entrance into the Republican race may have been a stroke of genius. According, to Republican pundits Paul is peaking at the right time, as the field begins to settle and the lack of an anti-establishment/grassroots candidate Paul is in a perfect position to swoop in and emerge as the conservative alternative to Marco Rubio who is quickly assuming his position as the Establishment candidate as Paul Ryan continues to falter in the polls.

Brown nabs Giuliani Endorsement

Fox News Poll: Republican Nomination (Late October 2015) Rubio +3

Marco Rubio: 22%
Rand Paul: 19%
Donald Trump: 13%
Paul Ryan: 12%
Scott Brown: 7%
John Kasich: 5%
Rick Perry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 21%

Endorsement Roster:

Marco Rubio:
- Gov. Jeb Bush
- Gov. Bobby Jindal
- Gov. George Pataki
- Carly Fiorina
- Gov. Bill Haslam
- Gov. Susanna Martinez
- Sen. Jeff Flake
- Sen. Pat Roberts
- Sen. Bob Dole
- Rep. Peter King
- Sen. Judd Gregg
- Gov. John Sununu

Rand Paul:
- Ted Cruz
- Sen. Chuck Grassley
- Sen. Mitch McConnell
- Sen. Mike Lee
- Glenn Beck
- Rep. Justin Amash
- Rep. J.C. Watts
- Sen. Bob Smith
- Rep. Ron Paul

Paul Ryan:
- Gov. Mitt Romney
- Gov. Scott Walker
- Gov. Charlie Baker

Scott Brown:
- Sen. Lindsey Graham
- Sen. Susan Collins
- Sen. Olympia Snowe
- Sen. Norm Coleman
- Mayor Rudy Giuliani

John Kasich:
- Sen. John E. Sununu
- Gov. Butch Otter
- Gov. Tommy Thompson

Rick Perry:
- Gov. Gregg Abbot
- Sen. Jeff Sessions

Donald Trump
- Gov. Paul LePage
- Rep. Duncan Hunter

[NHI]

Rand Paul: The Man to Beat

Rand Paul parachuted into the Republican primary, disrupting what many believed was a march for Marco Rubio to the Republican Nomination. Paul, a self-described "New Republican" determined to shakeup the political order in Washington, appears to be giving the Florida Senator a run for his money as Congressman Paul Ryan's campaign continues to falter. National polls show Paul gaining ground over Rubio who has assumed the establishment mantle. Paul, who many political pundits describe as the insurgent candidate drawing great passion from the grassroots base of the GOP electorate.

Republican Primary: Fox News Poll

Marco Rubio: 22%
Rand Paul: 20%
Donald Trump: 13%
Paul Ryan: 11%
Scott Brown: 8%
John Kasich: 4%
Rick Perry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 21%

Breaking News: Rick Perry Drops Out

"For our campaign there is no viable path to the nomination."

[NHI]

Dump Trump

The GOP has a problem with Donald Trump, a big problem. His harsh rhetoric against undocumented immigrants. His brash tone when it comes to China. His unapologetic nature. His attacks against his fellow opponents. The Republican Party has had enough. They're going after The Donald. Marco Rubio bashed his fellow Republican saying, "he does not represent the Republican Party or the Conservative movement. He is a bully." Rand Paul went a step further calling him, "a con -artist and loud mouth who does not belong in the Oval Office."

The attacks against Donald Trump have been heating up in recent weeks, following the Republican Debate in which Trump stumbled when asked specifically how he would accomplish his proposed Wall on the US southern border. Trump's response, described by many as awkward was a rambling mishmash of words, that resulted in laughter from the audience.

Looking to regain his campaign Congressman Paul Ryan has attacked Trump over his insistence he is a true conservative. Ryan lambasted Trump as a "fraud, who is pandering and lacks specifics." An attack ad, airing in Iowa and South Carolina criticizes Trump over his past comments, including his support for abortion and comments praising Hillary Clinton and other Democrats.

VO: "Donald Trump: Just another politician?
Insert Cut: Trump: "Hillary Clinton has been an outstanding Secretary of State."
Insert Cut: Trump: "She's been a disaster."
Insert Cut: Trump: "The economy does better under Democrats. That's just a fact."
Insert Cut: Trump: "The economy is horrible right now and Obama is to blame."
Insert Cut: Trump: "I support abortion."
Insert Cut: Trump: "I'm about the most pro-life person you've ever met."
Insert Cut: Trump: "I identify more as a Democrat than anything else."
Insert Cut: Trump: "I'm a conservative, sure."
VO: "Donald Trump: Another politician. Flip flopper. Inconsistent. Not what America needs."

"I'm Paul Ryan and I approve this message."

BREAKING: Trump Tanks in Latest State Poll

Fox News Poll: Iowa Caucus (Rubio +2)

Marco Rubio: 25%
Rand Paul: 23%
Paul Ryan: 20%
Donald Trump: 10%
John Kasich: 3%
Scott Brown: 1%
Undecided/Other: 20%

Fox News Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Rubio +1)

Marco Rubio: 20%
Scott Brown: 19%
Rand Paul: 19%
Donald Trump: 10%
Paul Ryan: 9%
John Kasich: 6%
Undecided/Other: 17%

Fox News Poll: South Carolina Primary (Rubio +4)

Marco Rubio: 22%
Paul Ryan: 17%
Rand Paul: 14%
Donald Trump: 11%
Scott Brown: 10%
John Kasich: 3%
Undecided/Other: 23%

Fox News Poll: Nevada Caucus (Rubio +3)

Marco Rubio: 26%
Rand Paul: 23%
Donald Trump: 14%
Paul Ryan: 9%
Scott Brown: 4%
John Kasich: 3%
Undecided/Other: 21%

[NHI]

Webb Hits Obama on the 2nd Amendment

New Hampshire. Playing to moderate Democrats and a state where Independents can vote in either primary, Jim Webb is hoping his new attack on President Obama will resonate with voters concerned about the second amendment. Webb has already attacked Obama's executive orders on guns and the new gun-control law as "steps too far" and promises to find a middle ground on the issues of second amendment rights and gun safety. "What the President has done is outrageous in my opinion," Webb said to a crowd of about fifty in Rochester, NH. "Not only is it bad policy, because it infringes in my view on the 2nd Amendment right, it is also bad politics, because it gives the Republican a solid, credible issue to run against in the fall." Webb currently trails Obama by more than sixty points in the critical New Hampshire primary.

What Happened to Scott Brown?

NH was supposed to be his state, but so-far he has failed to gain traction.

Scott Brown, the moderate Republican from Massachusetts was considered a dark horse in the Republican race for President, his strength with blue collar voters as well as disaffected Democrats was seen as an asset, particularly in the New Hampshire primary, a state he was expected to do quite well in, but so far his campaign and efforts have been been a dud.

Brown has never been the leader in the primary polls for New Hampshire, usually vying for second, but recently the Massachusetts incumbent has slipped to third place, behind Paul Ryan who has seen somewhat of a turnaround in his campaign after going strongly after his fellow rival Donald Trump.

Political analyst, particularly those in New Hampshire offer an opinion on Brown and why his campaign has (so-far) failed to move the needle in the all-important first in the nation primary. "Brown has a great resume and a great story to tell," Veteran GOP strategist Tom Rath said in Concord, "but his stances particularly on issues like abortion and guns has hurt him in this state. Now usually New Hampshire Republicans are forgiving on the choice issue, but the second amendment is big here and so far he hasn't been able to rectify his position with many of the voters here in the state." Brown, a moderate Republican should be doing exceedingly well in New Hampshire, but in a state with a strong libertarian presence New Hampshire is ripe pickings for someone like Rand Paul who is counting on growing his father's base of support into a majority.

For a candidate like Marco Rubio, while moderate, seems to check more of the boxes that help a Republican win New Hampshire. Former Governor and Chief of Staff to President George H.W. Bush John Sununu, who is backing Rubio in the Granite State, said the Florida Senator represents the future of the party and is something New Hampshire Republicans want to be apart of. "It's a movement," Sununu said. "And you cannot deny a movement."

CNN/ORC Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Nov. 2015) Rubio +1

Marco Rubio: 21%
Rand Paul: 20%
Paul Ryan: 16%
Scott Brown: 14%
Donald Trump: 8%
John Kasich: 4%
Undecided/Other: 17%

Fox News Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Nov. 2015) Rubio +1

Marco Rubio: 20%
Rand Paul: 19%
Scott Brown: 15%
Paul Ryan: 14%
Donald Trump: 9%
John Kasich: 3%
Undecided/Other: 20%

WMUR Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Nov. 2015) Tied

Marco Rubio: 25%
Rand Paul: 25%
Scott Brown: 13%
Paul Ryan: 13%
Donald Trump: 6%
John Kasich: 3%
Undecided/Other: 15%

Suffolk University Poll: New Hampshire Primary (Nov. 2015) Paul +3

Rand Paul: 26%
Marco Rubio: 23%
Scott Brown: 11%
Donald Trump: 9%
Paul Ryan: 9%
John Kasich: 3%
Other/Undecided: 19%

NBC/WSJ Poll: Iowa Caucus (Nov. 2015) Ryan +1

Paul Ryan: 25%
Marco Rubio: 24%
Rand Paul: 19%
Donald Trump: 8%
John Kasich: 2%
Scott Brown: 1%
Undecided: 21%

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: BIDEN WILL NOT RUN FOR VP AGAIN

Coming as no surprise, Vice President Joe Biden announced on CBS' This Morning he will not be running again for Vice President in 2016. Biden cited his age as one of the reasons for his decision. "The President was very supportive, but I believe there should be new leaders ready to help stir the Democratic party into the future, after Barack Obama is no longer President. Whether I like it or not a 70 plus old man will not be the candidate of the future."

Biden's decision comes as President Obama runs for reelection in the Democratic Primary against his only remaining challenger Jim Webb. Some Democrats have suggested Webb as a potential running mate for Obama, but he is likely to be unsatisfactory to the liberal Democratic base. Potential replacements for Biden: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia and Secretary Julian Castro of Texas.

CNN/ORC Poll: Democratic Nomination (Obama +71)

Barack Obama: 78%
Jim Webb: 7%
Undecided: 15%

CNN/ORC Poll: Iowa Caucus Democratic Nomination (Obama +71)

Barack Obama: 76%
Jim Webb: 5%
Undecided: 19%

CNN/ORC Poll: New Hampshire Primary Democratic Nomination (Obama +60)

Barack Obama: 69%
Jim Webb: 9%
Undecided: 22%

CNN/ORC Poll: South Carolina Primary Democratic Nomination (Obama +83)

Barack Obama: 88%
Jim Webb: 5%
Undecided: 7%

"New Hampshire seems to be the only place where Jim Webb has a shot, and by a shot I mean, the possibility of breaking into the low to mid teens. I mean everywhere else Obama is destroying him." -- Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe

"I have to wonder if by having this little of a primary, when the Republicans are going at it will actually end up hurting Obama in the general." -- Mika Brzezinski

"Only if the Republican don't end up harming themselves, because as we saw four years ago Romney was destroyed because of the Republican Primary." -- Joe Scarborough

Obama Unconcerned about "Primary". More Focused on Governing and The General Election

"It's not arrogance or over confidence. I'm unfazed about the primary. I think we'll be fine and the polls seem to confirm my theory."

General Election: Gallup Poll (Nov. 2016)

Barack Obama: 51% (+13)

Donald Trump: 38%

Barack Obama: 51% (+12)

John Kasich: 39%

Barack Obama: 49% (+8)

Scott Brown: 41%

Barack Obama: 50% (+7)

Paul Ryan: 43%

Barack Obama: 50% (+6)

Rand Paul: 44%

Barack Obama: 49% (+5)

Marco Rubio: 44%

Barack Obama: 50% (Average +8.5)

Republicans: 41.5%

[NHI]

The Battle for Iowa

The battle between Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio is heating up as the young guns battle out for first place in the Iowa Caucus, the first nominating state in the Republican Primary. Ryan began as the early favorite, but Rubio began surging following the first Republican debate in Ohio. The Florida Senator has either narrowly trailed or captured a lead in Iowa. Following the rise of Donald Trump, the Ryan slipped, but as the Donald proved to be an unstable candidate Ryan is fighting his way back to the top.

Paul on the rise, Stakes a Claim in IA & NH Contests

As Rubio and Ryan battle it out New Hampshire, Rand Paul is hoping to pick up the spoils in Iowa and perhaps perform better than expected, while also setting himself up for a victory in New Hampshire. His father Ron Paul finished second behind Mitt Romney in 2012 with 23 percent of the vote, Paul is hoping to build on those numbers and with a fractured establishment lane between Ryan and Rubio Paul is thinking he can secure a victory in the all-important Granite State primary.

Trump Calls it Quits

Facing the prospects of losing the first nominating contests and wishing to retain his mentality as a winner Donald Trump has ended his bid to become the Republican nominee. Facing intense criticism over his comments involving immigrants and harsh rhetoric Trump, who initially saw a surge in the late summer, dropped following the first few debates and as his Republican rivals turned up the heat on the billionaire businessman.

"His combination over a lack of specifics, contradictory positions and strength of his opponents damaged his campaign," GOP strategist Karl Rove said on Fox and Friends following the announcement. "Now we can focus on having a real primary debate and get rid of the clown show."

Trump ended his bid for President at a press conference in Tower Towers to a gaggle of reporters. He bashed the Republican Party for "turning against him after the generous donations he's given to them over the years." He also knocked his rivals as "weak and small-minded." When asked if he would consider running as a third party, Trump replied, "nothing is out of the realm of possibility."

Fox News Poll: Republican Nomination December 2015

Marco Rubio: 24%
Paul Ryan: 20%
Rand Paul: 18%
Scott Brown: 7%
John Kasich: 1%
Undecided: 20%%

What are you looking for in a Republican Candidate?

Someone who can defeat Obama: 52%
Can Unite people: 28%
Shakeup Washington, DC: 14%
Work Across the Aisle: 4%
Bring Change: 2%

Public Opinion on the Candidates: All Voters

Rubio Viewed Most Favorable of all GOP Candidates

Favorable: 40% Unfavorable: 24%

Favorable: 34% Unfavorable: 26%

Favorable: 33% Unfavorable: 27%

Favorable: 30% Unfavorable: 27%

Favorable: 24%  Unfavorable: 17%

Obama Remains on Top

Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 39%

[NHI]

Ryan: "Rubio's Flip Flopped"

Ryan stumping in Iowa, the week before the Caucuses, attacking Marco Rubio for his support of amnesty.

Rubio: "I'm running an optimistic campaign for the future of the GOP and the country."

Rubio is narrowing the gap between him and Congressman Ryan.

RCP Average: Iowa Republican Caucuses (Ryan +1.

Paul Ryan: 29.7%
Marco Rubio: 27.9%
Rand Paul: 24.9%
John Kasich: 2.9%
Scott Brown: 1.3%
Undecided: 13.9%

Obama Looking for a Major Victory in Iowa

Polls show the President cruising to a win in Iowa over Former VA Senator Jim Webb.

Chris Matthews: "An early projection -- on the Democratic side. President Barack Obama is winning tonight."

Brian Williams: Barack Obama, as expected. The polls showed, he will win the Iowa Caucuses an quite handily it would seem.

PROJECTION: BARACK OBAMA WINS IOWA CAUCUS

Democratic Caucus: <1% Precincts Reported:

Barack Obama: 87.1%

Jim Webb: 8.7%
Uncommitted/Other: 4.2%

Rachel Maddow: "We are making this projection based on early results, coupled with exit polls, showing a clear Obama mandate tonight."

Brain Williams: "On the Republican side it is hardly a clearer picture."

Republican: Iowa Caucus <1% Reported

Paul Ryan: 33.8%
Marco Rubio: 29.6%
Rand Paul: 25.5%
John Kasich: 6.2%
Other/Uncommitted: 3.9%
Scott Brown: 1.0%

Scott Brown, Projected to Finish Last in Iowa.

Brown Campaigns with 2000 and 2008 NH primary winner Senator John McCain who endorsed Brown for President the night of the Iowa Caucuses.

Ryan - Rubio locked in a Tight Race for Iowa Caucuses

Rubio: 30% ---  Ryan: 34%

[NHI]

Maddow: "An increasingly close race on the Republican side between Representative Paul Ryan and Senator Marco Rubio, who by all account is beating expectations for tonight."

Republican Iowa Caucus: 51% Reported

Paul Ryan: 24,510 (30.06%)
Marco Rubio: 22,059 (27.05%)
Rand Paul: 20,111 (24.66%)
John Kasich: 8,520 (10.45%)
Other/Uncommitted: 4,326 (5.30%)
Scott Brown: 2,001 (2.48%)

81,527

Republican Iowa Caucus: 75% Reported

Paul Ryan: 44,510 (28.80%)
Marco Rubio: 43,059 (27.86%)
Rand Paul: 41,111 (26.60%)
John Kasich: 18,520 (11.98%)
Other/Uncommitted: 5,326 (3.44%)
Scott Brown: 2,005 (1.32%)

Matthews: "Rubio's narrowing the gap down to a couple thousand votes. This is why I love politics."

Republican Iowa Caucus: 89% Reported

Paul Ryan: 50,510 (29.20%)
Marco Rubio: 50,059 (28.94%)
Rand Paul: 45,111 (26.08%)
John Kasich: 18,920 (10.94%)
Other/Uncommitted: 6,326 (3.65%)
Scott Brown: 2,011 (1.19%)

172,937

Williams: "A too close to call race on the Republican side. We have projected Governor John Kasich and Senator Brown to finish fourth and sixth place respectively. We are projecting Senator Rand Paul to finish third in the Iowa Caucuses, but we cannot call the race between Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan."

Iowa Republican Caucus: Too Close to Call!

Ryan: 50,510   DIFFERENCE: 451 Votes   Rubio: 50,059

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: PROJECTION IOWA CAUCUS

RYAN WINS THE IOWA CAUCUS; RUBIO FINISHES CLOSE SECOND

Paul Ryan projected the winner in Republican Iowa Caucus -- 99% Reported

"Tonight we've taken a first step in winning back the White House and defeating President Obama. After nearly eight years Americans need a real recovery. Americans need wages to go up. America needs a turn around." -- Rep. Paul Ryan after winning the Iowa Caucus with 29% of the vote.

Rubio Declares Victory in Iowa; Readies for NH

"Tonight we've shown the pollsters and the pundits. We have a winning message which is uniting Republicans and Americans. We are done talking about the past. We threw with yesterday. We are never going back. We are looking forward to tomorrow, a bright and ever possible tomorrow for America and Americans. The dawn of a new American century." -- Sen. Marco Rubio, finishing second in Iowa with 28 percent of the vote.

Iowa Republican Caucus: 100% Reported

Paul Ryan: 51,526 (29.52%) 9 Delegates

Marco Rubio: 50,289 (28.81%) 9 Delegates

Rand Paul: 45,339 (25.98%) 7 Delegates

John Kasich: 19,001 (10.88% 4 Delegate
Other/Uncommitted: 6,326 (3.62%)
Scott Brown: 2,019 (1.19%) 1 Delegate

Iowa Democratic Caucus: 100% Reported

Barack Obama: 650 (83.87%) 43 Delegates

Jim Webb: 99 (13.20%)
Uncommitted/Other: 26 (2.93%) 1 Delegate