Mark Warner, the Democratic contender

[MAS117]

The more I think of it, the more I'm afraid Mark Warner won't be able to win the primaries, especially if Evan Bayh is competing: It'll be like Clark and Edwards splitting the Southern vote and giving the pass to Kerry.  We really need to coalesce around ONE moderate alternative to Hillary. 

I agree it will be tough for Warner to win the primary especially if Sen. Bayh decides to run. However, I disagree about Gen. Clark and Edwards getting the southern vote. Edwards barely won SC against a Northeast liberal like Kerry, I think Warner would have a good shot in the southern primaries. Here in NJ we are moving our primary to the last Tuesday in Feb. a week before super tuesday.  We give out a lot of delegates, and you bet your ass I'll be out there on the trail for Gov. Warner.

[Ben Meyers]

Warner would beat Bayh in the South.  The reason is Warner has charisma, while Bayh gives off that high school teacher aura.

[TheresNoMoney]

1. Hillary isn't liberal

Exactly. For whatever reason she has that label, but she's very centrist, much like her husband.

The only real viable liberal candidates in 2008 will be Wesley Clark and Russ Feingold (if he runs). The majority of Democratic candidates will be moderates.

[Moooooo]

Another positive for Warner is $$$.  He may be the only Democrat capable of keeping up with Hillary in the fundraising dept.  Worse comes to worse... Warner can bankroll his own campaign.

[TheresNoMoney]

Worse comes to worse... Warner can bankroll his own campaign.

That's gotta be nice.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Warner would beat Bayh in the South.  The reason is Warner has charisma, while Bayh gives off that high school teacher aura.

Hey!  I want to be a high school chemistry or calculus teacher

[PADem]

I think Mark Warner is the perfect Dem nominee. He'd trample all over most conservative republicans like Frist and Santorum (yes Phil he'd trample Santorum). Give him a similarly popular running mate and the Dems are guaranteed the Whitehouse in 2008.

Someone like Bayh, Clark, Liberman would all be good.

He would also be good as the VP nominee on a Bayh ticket.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Mark Warner is the perfect Dem nominee. He'd trample all over most conservative republicans like Frist and Santorum (yes Phil he'd trample Santorum). Give him a similarly popular running mate and the Dems are guaranteed the Whitehouse in 2008.

Someone like Bayh, Clark, Liberman would all be good.

He would also be good as the VP nominee on a Bayh ticket.

I hate when people act like I believe Santorum would win in every situation. Of course he'd be very likely to lose to Warner. He'd lose to Bayh, too. I don't know about trample but a comfortable win either way.

[AuH2O]

OK.

First, I don't think assuming Bayh runs makes much sense. To be honest, he's basically been invisible in DC... I see no reason to believe he even thinks a run is feasible, let alone the objective fact being a run is feasible.

More likely, you have Clinton, Kerry, Edwards, and then the Governors. Known to be interested (strongly): Vilsack, Richardson, Rendell, Warner.

Now, I doubt that many "names" would last particularly long. People drop out as it becomes clear what the pecking order looks like. So what really matters is, who is in the race on the days of the Iowa caucus and then the New Hampshire Primary?

Now, Kerry is a complete asshole and might stay in regardless of the polls, and that can't hurt Warner so far as I can tell. The crux of the problem for Warner is that Vilsack knocks him out of the top 2 in Iowa should he run, and NH probably isn't great Warner territory no matter what.

For Warner to get the nomination, which I think is a 1% probability at best, would require a couple candidates to drain Hillary with none hurting Warner. Perhaps Rendell fits that description, and presumably Kerry.

Warner has a very nice shot at Veep if he finishes 2nd or even 3rd depending on the runner-up... I imagine that's part of his calculation, since is he pretty young. He also is as exciting as watching grass grow, which I think will hurt him come campaign season.

[MissCatholic]

I was originally behind Warner. But now i want him to do a job for Hillary and take Allen out.

Warner if he runs agaisnt Allen can force him to do two things.
1) give up his senate seat for a presidential run. if allen says he will run for the senate and not president and then changes his mind. Warner can run in 08 and say look at the other senator from Virginia one minute he said he wasnt going to run now he is.
2) Warner can force him to spend alot of money. Santorum is already seeking cash and the Republicans wont want too many battles going on in 06

[Democratic Hawk]

Warner would be a sound Democratic candidate and currently my number two and I'd gladly support him were he to be the nominee

It's a pity he can't run for, and win, a consecutive term as governor. Do you think incumbent governors have an advantage over ex-governors?

Dave

[MODU]

Just to correct one point in this whole article:

"Faced with a big budget deficit, he enlisted corporate business types to support a tax increase -- and got the Republican-led legislative to approve it."

The budget deficit which it looked like Virginia was facing was caused by Warner to begin with.  Then, in order to skirt the over run, he started to shut down government offices and services a few days each week (including places like the DMV).  This saved the state money, but cost the employees their wages for the days the offices were shut down.  Then, after keeping the legislature hostage for over a week, he basically forced them to approve the tax hike, even after his own advisors told him the state would come in under budget . . . which it did.  This past tax cycle, the state had an unnecessary billion dollar surplus which it cannot return to the tax payers, so it now has to be spent on state tasks, leading to the precedent that the state will need the same amount of tax revenue in 2006.

While he is my favored Democrat out of the proposed 2008 listing so far, he is not without his faults.

[jokerman]

He'll have my support in '08, but knowing my party... We'll just pass him by.

We just have to work to make sure Hillary doesn't get the nomination and then Warner should be all set.

It will be a little more complicated than that.  When Warner is forced to get up in front of the Liberal Army in Iowa and discuss his views on Abortion, Death Penalty, Iraq, and Illegal Immigration... The Lib's are gonna' go nuts.

He's got a lot of support on DailyKos.

DailyKos is governed by mob-psychology.  He is nowhere close to thier ideology.

[TheresNoMoney]

DailyKos is governed by mob-psychology.  He is nowhere close to thier ideology.

Wrong and wrong.

[Moooooo]

Just to correct one point in this whole article:

"Faced with a big budget deficit, he enlisted corporate business types to support a tax increase -- and got the Republican-led legislative to approve it."

The budget deficit which it looked like Virginia was facing was caused by Warner to begin with.  Then, in order to skirt the over run, he started to shut down government offices and services a few days each week (including places like the DMV).  This saved the state money, but cost the employees their wages for the days the offices were shut down.  Then, after keeping the legislature hostage for over a week, he basically forced them to approve the tax hike, even after his own advisors told him the state would come in under budget . . . which it did.  This past tax cycle, the state had an unnecessary billion dollar surplus which it cannot return to the tax payers, so it now has to be spent on state tasks, leading to the precedent that the state will need the same amount of tax revenue in 2006.

While he is my favored Democrat out of the proposed 2008 listing so far, he is not without his faults.

Sure, Warner could have taken the path many politicians take...balancing the budget on the backs of the poor and jeopardizing important issues like education, transportation, and health care. That did not happen.

Modu, why don't you tell everyone how Governor Warner sold the tax reform to the citizens of Virginia.

He also is as exciting as watching grass grow, which I think will hurt him come campaign season.

AuH20, Warner is no Clinton, but he's definitley not as boring as say, Dan Quayle, like your making him out to be.  On TV he comes off as a very telegenic and intelligent guy.  Which makes me wonder how he connected so well with rural Virginia?

[AuH2O]

He didn't connect "so well," he just did better than other Democrats in rural areas because he ran so far right economically.

But then he raised taxes, and now we have a budget surplus. Oops. Since he's term-limited the GOP doesn't bother attacking him but, if they did, his approval numbers would plummet.

On a charisma scale 1-10, he's a 3. Yeah, it could be worse, but still not too good.

And I wouldn't worry overly much about what some crazed Kossacks say about Warner. They'll turn on him once they find their lefty of choice, just like they've turned on dozens of politicians-- sometimes for as little as one errant remark or one vote they don't even understand.

Worse for Warner, I don't know what he's going to do about some of the positions he took in 2001. I guess he can stick to his generally anti-gun control views... no one got on Dean too badly. But he is pro-business through and through, which is not great news for some very large Democrat constituencies (including the DKossers and the far left, as well as Union Democrats).

[Moooooo]

On a charisma scale 1-10, he's a 3. Yeah, it could be worse, but still not too good.

Rate George Allen.

[MODU]

On a charisma scale 1-10, he's a 3. Yeah, it could be worse, but still not too good.

Rate George Allen.

I give him a 4 or 5.  Gillmore was much more of a "people person" than Allen and Warner.

[jokerman]

DailyKos is governed by mob-psychology.  He is nowhere close to their ideology.

Wrong and wrong.

How's that?  You can't say that DailyKos isn't governed by mob-psychology.  It's worse than DU.  They almost have a cult-like group with social ranks of regular users, trusted users, and the "elite"(sorry for using that term) group of respected posters.  It's quite amusing.

[TheresNoMoney]

How's that?  You can't say that DailyKos isn't governed by mob-psychology.

To a degree, you're correct. But it's not like other sites where you get banned for disagreeing with people (Free Republic for example).

Anyway, I think Daily Kos is a great, informative site and I never have felt unwelcome there.

[TheresNoMoney]

On a charisma scale 1-10, he's a 3. Yeah, it could be worse, but still not too good.

I would rate him about a 5, with Allen about a 4.

Warner will need to work on his public speaking before he runs for president. He's much more emotive and charismatic than John Kerry, but that's not saying much.

[AuH2O]

Allen is a 6 or so. I don't totally get it, actually... personally my inclination is towards more of the wonkish style... but with the population at large Allen's style plays well (similar to Bush but smarter).

Perhaps Warner could improve to a 4, but that's not where he is now... I've seen enough of him to guarantee you he's not going to catch many crowds on fire that don't start that way.

Here are a few others, current and historical:

Frist- 2
H Clinton- 4/5
Sanford- 7/8
McCain- 5/6
Dean- 7/8
Kerry- 2
Edwards- 5
Guiliani- 8/9
B Clinton- 9
Reagan- 9/10

[Moooooo]

Allen is a 6 or so. I don't totally get it, actually... personally my inclination is towards more of the wonkish style... but with the population at large Allen's style plays well (similar to Bush but smarter).

Perhaps Warner could improve to a 4, but that's not where he is now... I've seen enough of him to guarantee you he's not going to catch many crowds on fire that don't start that way.

Here are a few others, current and historical:

Frist- 2
H Clinton- 4/5
Sanford- 7/8
McCain- 5/6
Dean- 7/8
Kerry- 2
Edwards- 5
Guiliani- 8/9
B Clinton- 9
Reagan- 9/10

I agree with you that Allen is around a 6 or so.  But his idioitic comments will eventually catch up with him.  "Sell your home to make it through retirement?"...  Wow.

Allen- 5
Warner- 5
Frist- 2
H Clinton- 6
Sanford- 6
McCain- 5
Dean- 7
Kerry- 3
Edwards- 7
Guiliani- 7
B Clinton- 9
Reagan- 9

[Beet]

If that Warner speech from May 2003 was better than Kerry's nomination acceptance last year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How's that?  You can't say that DailyKos isn't governed by mob-psychology.  It's worse than DU.  They almost have a cult-like group with social ranks of regular users, trusted users, and the "elite"(sorry for using that term) group of respected posters.  It's quite amusing.

Trusted status on DailyKos only allows you to give 0s and see comments that are "hidden". Anyone can get it, and it's very easy to lose (you need a certain number of highly rated comments to keep it). Calling that mob-psychology is absurd.

Also, DailyKos allows dissent, they don't ban you just because you disagree with most people.