Sanders' best county in Florida?

[Xing]

Where do you think Sanders will do the best in Florida?

Discuss.

[Nyvin]

Palm Beach maybe?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Brevard or possibly Flagler

[DrScholl]

Holmes.

[TDAS04]

Monroe possibly.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Holmes.

Yeah.... I don't think conservadems are gonna vote for Sanders up there.

[Famous Mortimer]

Bold guess: Alachua

[Boston Bread]

Holmes.

Yeah.... I don't think conservadems are gonna vote for Sanders up there.

Sander's only counties in GA or LA were >80% Romney, so why not?

[Podgy the Bear]

Alachua (Gainesville/UF) and Leon (Tallahassee/FSU) seem to be the best bets.

[Devils30]

Alachua easily, Leon has more African-Americans.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Bold guess:Glades County

[Adam Griffin]

I actually think Sanders' strongest area will be in the north, generally-speaking. That doesn't include the counties that directly border Georgia and that surround Tallahassee necessarily, but everything south of that and north of Daytona Beach.

I've been advocating the whole "Clinton 2008 counties in the South generally are where Sanders 2016 will do best", but I'm not so sure that that applies for any part of Florida. The further south in the state you go, generally the better that I expect Clinton to do.

The issue here (unlike the rest of the South; even though I don't consider any part of Florida really to be "the South") is that you have non-black, non-white voters. You can't just look at black populations in Florida like you can throughout the rest of the South: you have to look at non-Hispanic white populations as well. Even in a lot of areas where there are relatively significant black populations in North Florida, the non-Hispanic white share of population is much larger overall than it is in Central and South Florida. Of course, you then have to control for the fact that whites in North FL aren't nearly as Democratic, but still.

I expect the gradient will look something like this (I'm not saying Sanders won't win counties: this is just how I expect Clinton's share of the vote to look by and large & on a sliding scale when compared to other counties/regions in the state):



If I had to guess, then I'd say Citrus, Gilchrist, Holmes and Alachua will be his four best opportunities.

[Averroës Nix]

Baker or maybe Gilchrist (small, overwhelmingly non-Hispanic white, not as old as some, weak or nonexistent Democratic organization to GOTV for Clinton)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Palm Beach maybe?

Nope. PBC will be a Hillary stronghold.

Alachua easily, Leon has more African-Americans.

Yeah, this is a largely black area. Plus, most students at FSU/FAMU/TCC are registered to vote back home. I'm one of the few who registered in Leon County when I got up here.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Palm Beach maybe?

Nope. PBC will be a Hillary stronghold.

Alachua easily, Leon has more African-Americans.

Yeah, this is a largely black area. Plus, most students at FSU/FAMU/TCC are registered to vote back home. I'm one of the few who registered in Leon County when I got up here.

Yeah, which is why I don't see how Sanders will do all that well up in the Panhandle, I think he may do well in Lake county, probably in Flagler and Brevard honestly.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Holmes, or maybe Clay, Okaloosa, or Santa Rosa.  These were also some of Nan Rich's best counties against Crist in 2014; they're anti-establishment in the Dem primaries now.

[Cubby]

One of Sanders worst counties will be Sumter, because it is teeming with thousands of senior citizens in The Villages who were raised on anti-communist propaganda in the 40's & 50's.

The Villages also spills over into Marion and Lake Counties but they each have a much larger population, so they aren't as dominated by it as Sumter is.

[Lief 🗽]

Er, Adam, how do you not consider any of Florida the South? Do you not consider the Georgia counties bordering Florida to be the South either?

[Crumpets]

Whichever one has Gainesville (Alachua?). Also maybe Gadsden.

[CatoMinor]

Which ever county is the whitest

[Adam Griffin]

Er, Adam, how do you not consider any of Florida the South? Do you not consider the Georgia counties bordering Florida to be the South either?

I consider so little of Florida to be Southern that for simplicity's sake, I just write-off the entirety of the state.

I'm very much a strict constructionist when it comes to the definition of the South! Florida isn't Southern, and of course neither is Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kentucky...or God forbid, West Virginia, Maryland or Delaware. Usually, I'll even exclude those Louisiana freaks for all of that silly Francophone behavior. Virginia usually gets somewhat of a pass with me - even though they're totally not Southern anymore by most accounts - but there's a certain amount of historic cultural weight that I take into account and Virginia's is chock-full of Southron history.

I've made multiple maps with delineation before, but here's the most recent one that I had laying around for occasions like these!

[Brittain33]

Whichever one has Gainesville (Alachua?). Also maybe Gadsden.

Gadsden county is 56% African-American; it may well be Sanders' worst county in Florida.

[Young Conservative]

The Panhandle has strong organization for him and is overwhelmingly white

[Serenity Now]

Not a county but the immediate place that came to mind was Gainesville, which is in Alachua, so I'll go with that.

[DrScholl]

Holmes.

Yeah.... I don't think conservadems are gonna vote for Sanders up there.

Considering the trends so far in the south, it's no outside of the equation. His best counties in southern states have been the most Republican ones for the most part.