Is Hillary over if Sanders wins North Carolina?

[Beet]

I'm hearing he's getting huge rallies, his supporters made 50,000 calls in one day. What happens to her campaign at that point?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sanders isn't winning NC lol

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary is in very deep sh**t if Bernie wins either NC or FL, but it won't happen.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary is in very deep sh**t if Bernie wins either NC or FL, but it won't happen.

[Beet]

Her campaign says it expects North Carolina to be a "disappointment".

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hillary-clinton-selling-ohio-voters-022107914.html

She's also getting outspent 3-1.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/why-arent-the-anti-trump-forces-hitting-him-harder-in-ohio-220658#ixzz42vNZYvWT

Note that Sanders never campaigned in neighboring Virginia.

[Crumpets]

No, but it would definitely be an interesting/terrifying dynamic if Sanders shuts her out the rest of the year but still can't get a majority of pledged delegates, which is what I think would happen. The superdelegates might actually end up handpicking the nominee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Her campaign says it expects North Carolina to be a "disappointment".

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hillary-clinton-selling-ohio-voters-022107914.html

She's also getting outspent 3-1.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/why-arent-the-anti-trump-forces-hitting-him-harder-in-ohio-220658#ixzz42vNZYvWT

Note that Sanders never campaigned in neighboring Virginia.

They could just be playing the expectations game like when Nevada became 80% white.

[MIKESOWELL]

Well.....George McGovern and Walter Mondale were getting big crowds near the end of their respective presidential runs as well.....so....

[Beet]

Her campaign says it expects North Carolina to be a "disappointment".

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hillary-clinton-selling-ohio-voters-022107914.html

She's also getting outspent 3-1.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/why-arent-the-anti-trump-forces-hitting-him-harder-in-ohio-220658#ixzz42vNZYvWT

Note that Sanders never campaigned in neighboring Virginia.

They could just be playing the expectations game like when Nevada became 80% white.

That's what I thought when Robby Mook said the internal polls were closer than public polls in Michigan. Also, they never said anything like this before any of the other southern states.

[Yan]

It's not happening, but it would be an absolute disaster for her campaign if it did.

[Xing]

I can't fathom Sanders doing better than 45-46% in NC (even that's very generous), but if he won it on top of MO, IL, and OH, it would dramatically change the state of the race, no doubt. It might not be the end if Clinton got a large margin in FL, but she'd definitely be in trouble.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think people might be underestimating him in NC. Obama had the black vote and the college vote and Hillary still got 42%. A lot of those voters are either not Democrats anymore or have switched to Sanders (OK being an example where he did well with rural whites, plus the polls in KY).

[CatoMinor]

No, but it would definitely be an interesting/terrifying dynamic if Sanders shuts her out the rest of the year but still can't get a majority of pledged delegates, which is what I think would happen. The superdelegates might actually end up handpicking the nominee.

If the super delegates chose the nominee I imagine it would the last year with them playing a significant role.

[Beet]

The Research Triangle will come in hard for him. It depends on how much ground he makes up in Charlotte and western North Carolina, and whether he can keep the margins down in Eastern North Carolina. Either way, the state line will be a good indication of changes in the race since March 1.

[Fusionmunster]

No offence Beet, but out of all the Hillary supporters here you seem to freak out the most.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

One thing to note is that a lot of people haven't gotten to know Bernie (which hurts him a lot) because his campaign hasn't been able to focus so much on their state. After tomorrow, the rest of the campaign will be at a far more relaxed pace. Sure, June 7th has several hundred delegates, and April 19 and 26 have like 250-350 delegates each, but both of those hardly have anyone else voting for 3 weeks before them.

[Beet]

No offence Beet, but out of all the Hillary supporters here you seem to freak out the most.

I said she would win Michigan "decisively" by at least 52-48.

[Eraserhead]

Beet, Clinton is not going to lose North Carolina. Jesus. I'd be surprised if Sanders came within 20%.

Perhaps they are thinking he might actually come within 20%. Maybe that's what they mean by a "disappointment".

[Fusionmunster]

No offence Beet, but out of all the Hillary supporters here you seem to freak out the most.

I said she would win Michigan "decisively" by at least 52-48.

Just an observation. Ive seen you freak out before.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Beet, Clinton is not going to lose North Carolina. Jesus. I'd be surprised if Sanders came within 20%.

Perhaps they are thinking he might actually come within 20%. Maybe that's what they mean by a "disappointment".

If Obama could only get 56% while winning 90%+ of the black vote, how does Hillary win by 20% this cycle? Bernie's getting the college vote and her numbers with rural whites are abysmal compared to 2008. She's only up 5 in KY.

[psychprofessor]

The early vote in NC is too Hillary favorable for an upset here.

Blacks account for 40% of the early vote; women account for 60%; voters aged 45 and above account for a whopping 75% and registered DEMS account for 81%. Overall, approximately 400k early DEM votes have been cast. In 2008 there were 1.5 million total votes cast. I doubt we see that total again, so roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of all total votes have already been cast.

Oh, and PPP suggests the early vote is 68/29 Clinton.

[Mehmentum]

Her campaign says it expects North Carolina to be a "disappointment".

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hillary-clinton-selling-ohio-voters-022107914.html
Note that Sanders never campaigned in neighboring Virginia.

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This reeks of expectation setting.  Seriously, North Carolina's just an afterthought in the statement.

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They were never in the position to do so.  The narrative going into Super Tuesday was one where any such expectation setting would be ludicrous and unnecessary.  Ditto with LA and MS considering it was thought that Clinton had the nomination entirely in the bag.

[IceSpear]

No, but it would be a very bad sign. I'd need to see the results of the other states to put a definitive conclusion on it.

And Beet, Bernie got huge rallies in Texas too. How did that turn out again?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

NC is going to be a 56-44 win for Clinton

[Ebowed]

Eh, I'd be impressed if Sanders can even break 40%.  There's no chance of an upset here.