Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[IceSpear]

OH and FL may be called as soon as the polls close, lol.

[Vern]

I think Cruz will end up winning NC.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Wow!

I can't see it what's going in there

[PeteB]

Kasich, a popular and effective sitting governor, was never going to lose his home state.  I never doubted it for a moment.

Yes but it is telling that Trump threw his all into OH - this will be a big loss for him!

[Mike Thick]

Wow!

I can't see it what's going in there

It says Clinton is losing IL Hispanics to Bernie, 65%-35%, and if that holds up she'll lose the state.

EDIT: To be clear, this is just Dave Shuster on Twitter. Not super credible -- no sources or links.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

[Ronnie]

Kasich, a popular and effective sitting governor, was never going to lose his home state.  I never doubted it for a moment.

Yes but it is telling that Trump threw his all into OH - this will be a big loss for him!

Indeed, but maybe it won't be so bad for Trump in the end if it means Kasich will take votes away from Cruz in later primaries like California and Pennsylvania.  

[Joe Biden 2020]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys lets freaking wait to see the results. We've made this mistake before of saying 'Oh, this candidate will definitely win this state' based on early exits only to be completely wrong.

[Matty]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Guys lets freaking wait to see the results. We've made this mistake before of saying 'Oh, this candidate will definitely win this state' based on early exits only to be completely wrong.

Precisely

[ElectionsGuy]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

late deciders have been very anti-Trump in every state, though.

[Joe Biden 2020]

We've only got an hour until Ohio closes.  I know it's hard, but we've just gotta wait... LOL

[muon2]

It amuses me that FOX and other national media continue to refer to IL as a proportional state for delegates. It is anything but that. There is a block of delegates to the statewide winner and then the top three delegates in each congressional district are elected directly with their presidential preference shown. It is easily possible for Trump to get all of the delegates without an outright majority of the vote.

[win win]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

[Matty]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

late deciders have been very anti-Trump in every state, though.

54-28 is by far the largest margin we have seen. By far. It usually was around a twelve point deficit for trump among late deciders. This is more than double tha.t

[Thomas D]

How many voters would have been undecided in Kasich's home state?

[Seriously?]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

It all depends on the percentage that didn't make up their minds. I think 28% is a good bit above what he was taking previously in that category.

[Fargobison]

I thought Trump was going to lose Ohio and Missouri yesterday and I still feel that way today. I am most curious about Illinois.

[ElectionsGuy]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

late deciders have been very anti-Trump in every state, though.

54-28 is by far the largest margin we have seen. By far. It usually was around a twelve point deficit for trump among late deciders. This is more than double tha.t

By margin, it is, but in the past if I remember correctly Trump usually gets around 25-30% of the late deciders and its divided among the rest of the field with Cruz and Rubio both getting more than him (when Rubio was viable). It makes sense most of that would go to Kasich in Ohio, but yeah most likely he'll win anyway. I wonder what the 'decided more than a month ago' (or something like that) demographic looks like.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Cruz has outperformed his polls in every state since Super Tuesday, while Donald has underperformed everywhere except Mississippi. (which Rubio in turn, had underperformed). I won't be surprised if the only thing Donald wins is Florida.

[Mike Thick]

I wonder if Florida will be another insta-call for Trump.

[CapoteMonster]

In Florida, the urban areas are generally the first ones to report, so don't be surprised if Rubio has a lead when the first votes come in.

Miami tends to report more later though.

[IceSpear]

In Florida, the urban areas are generally the first ones to report, so don't be surprised if Rubio has a lead when the first votes come in.

I thought Miami Dade always takes forever to come in. It gave me hope for Crist in 2014.

[Mr. Morden]

More exit info: